The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[greendave]

The Fish says less worry on the crazy dry slot models earlier - now correcting. 4-7” general thought for triangle with the heavier band somewhere south and east. Don’t be surprised to not see decent precip til late afternoon.

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1DMYr6RKhB/?mibextid=wwXIfr

[wake4est]

Nam has the two jackpots like euro and hrrrrr but looks like it’s starting to fill in the dry slot

[ncstatered21]

I find it crazy how far apart WRAL and NWS Raleigh are even 12 hours or less before the start.

Even the 8:22pm update from NWS Raleigh has Raleigh exceeding that “1%” threshold.

Also…why is WRAL obsessed with the EURO this close to game time?


EDIT: I see we all literally said the same thing at the same time.

[WiseWeather]

Im trying to figure out why nws keeps bringing down totals for the foothills when every model keeps raising totals.


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[PackGrad05]

Mike Maze just posted the EURO Ensembles (which they call their exclusive product) and the amounts keep trending down.

You can expect an adjustment to their map either tonight or tomorrow morning and they will probably have Wake County in the 1-3" range.

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, ncstatered21 said:

I find it crazy how far apart WRAL and NWS Raleigh are even 12 hours or less before the start.

Even the 8:22pm update from NWS Raleigh has Raleigh exceeding that “1%” threshold.

Also…why is WRAL obsessed with the EURO this close to game time?


EDIT: I see we all literally said the same thing at the same time.

That is all they know how to do it would seem since losing Fishel.

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, AGardiner87 said:

What are your thoughts on the CLT area? 

3"-6". Probably the biggest snowstorm there since February 11-13, 2014.

[wake4est]

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, sinterpol said:

thoughts on the Sandhills area? 

Probably around 2"-5".

[PackGrad05]

00Z HRRR fills in that huge dry slot a little bit..  but still has it.  
It also has the precip starting mid-afternoon in Raleigh and ending a little later sunday morning

 

 

[wake4est]

The 3k NAM gives wake county exactly 0.0”

[Regan]

4 minutes ago, greendave said:

The Fish says less worry on the crazy dry slot models earlier - now correcting. 4-7” general thought for triangle with the heavier band somewhere south and east. Don’t be surprised to not see decent precip til late afternoon.

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1DMYr6RKhB/?mibextid=wwXIfr

Just coming here to post this. He seems reasonable.
 

Mike Maze makes me crazy. He just posted some rage bait. What is he looking at?!

[AirNelson39]

Im trying to figure out why nws keeps bringing down totals for the foothills when every model keeps raising totals.


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I think RAH and GSP switched roles for the night.

[NorthHillsWx]

The red flags for central NC have been raised to the top of the pole.

[ncstatered21]

NWS Raleigh with 13% probability for Raleigh to hit 12” with WRAL saying 1% chance Raleigh hits 6”. That’s wild to me.

I mean I know who I trust and luckily they are on the snow weenie end. But the discrepancy is crazy.

Maybe WRAL just playing it way low and if it’s higher everyone is happy?

I mean they can’t be this uneducated to only rely on a single model.


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[WiseWeather]

I think RAH and GSP switched roles for the night.

I mean the sref plumes have increased and every short range model looks better and better


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[wake4est]

We are cooked.

[ADB83]

Seems like the dry slot is gonna happen and it’s gonna be somewhere from Greensboro to Raleigh in that general area. Whoever is under it is going to get a nice snow. The opposite is true on the other side. But that looks like the general area that has to be nervous and I’m near Greensboro and I’m nervous.


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[AirNelson39]

It’s mind boggling to see a foot on the 12km and 0” on the 3km. No words.

[AGardiner87]

4 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Another 10+ run for the CLT area! 

[PackGrad05]

LMAO, FISHEL just made a video at 8:40 and said a model earlier scared the living daylights out of him and "killed everything" but has since corrected.

I guess he didn't see the new one yet!  Nobody knows

[USCG RS]

If this were to bust... The public themselves might riot. 

[ncstatered21]

Truly though. I think WRAL is going worst case scenario (for the snow lovers).

If it exceeds…no one cares really and everyone is happy.

If it hits…they can just say “we told ya so”


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[Stormpc]

1 minute ago, AirNelson39 said:

It’s mind boggling to see a foot on the 12km and 0” on the 3km. No words.

Its on its own. Who knows but I doubt that outcome 

[PackGrad05]

Just now, Stormpc said:

Its on its own. Who knows but I doubt that outcome 

HRRR also showed it earlier, and hasn't corrected too much

[UpstateSCBud]

3 minutes ago, wake4est said:

We are cooked.

While I feel for you dry slotted people…damn that looks beautiful over the upstate of sc 

[cbmclean]

WTF, the 3k NAM just cancelled the coastal altogether.

[StantonParkHoya]

They’re basically acting as though the coastal will produce nothing


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[ncstatered21]

I mean I trust the people who all they do is weather (NWS).

Even this:

NWS CAE: “ there is not notable evidence for a significant dry slot with this system.”


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[Regan]

Well Pack. I guess it’s over. 
 

tired of this whiplash.