The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, IceQueen706 said:

So where did it form in relation to where the models say it was going to form?  What implications...higher/lower snowfall/dry slots, etc., does that mean for us.

It seems reasonably close to where the 12z ECMWF showed it developing.

[USCG RS]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

It seems reasonably close to where the 12z ECMWF showed it developing.

Nice to see you down this way 

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Nice to see you down this way 

Good luck. I'm pulling for all of you. Hopefully, the HRRR will be more generous with the Triangle in its 0z run. Its 18z solution seemed unrealistic, but we'll see.

[Regan]

7 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

HRRR initialized too dry again. Not sure what the problem is but barely has anything on the radar view while the actual radar has returns over SC, N NC, and the mountains. 

Looks like it’s filling in better than previous but yeah. Something is off. 

[phishbfm]

Most of central NC doesn't get snow until tomorrow evening on the HRRR...just feels way off

[wake4est]

I think it’s officially panic time for Raleigh. 

[ADB83]

Most of central NC doesn't get snow until tomorrow evening on the HRRR...just feels way off

It’s run drier all day and of all the short range models. It looks the furthest away from what we’re currently looking at. So there’s a reason to be skeptical.


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[USCG RS]

2 minutes ago, phishbfm said:

Most of central NC doesn't get snow until tomorrow evening on the HRRR...just feels way off

[kvegas-wx]

1 minute ago, phishbfm said:

Most of central NC doesn't get snow until tomorrow evening on the HRRR...just feels way off

This border band is overproducing right now.  I already have a full ground covering at the farm in Stuart VA.  Still steady, light snow.

[scottk]

1 hour ago, USCG RS said:

https://x.com/ContentWxGuy/status/2017383442699190326?s=20

I saw about 10 snowflakes from what’s circled in SC earlier 

[Regan]

I just think the hrrr is having struggles

[lilj4425]

Just now, scottk said:

I saw about 10 snowflakes from what’s circled in SC earlier 

Probably more than I will see total. 

[AGardiner87]

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

Probably more than I will see total. 

You’re in a pretty good spot man, relax! 

[RTPGiants]

Eric Webb posted his final call which takes RDU area down to 2-5". Seems like more and more dry slot guidance.

[USCG RS]

2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Probably more than I will see total. 

Listen Mojo. Don't you quit on me now. 

[lilj4425]

2 minutes ago, AGardiner87 said:

You’re in a pretty good spot man, relax! 

Reverse psychology.  

[WinstonSalemArlington]

17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Good luck. I'm pulling for all of you. Hopefully, the HRRR will be more generous with the Triangle in its 0z run. Its 18z solution seemed unrealistic, but we'll see.

You know it’s big when we have a celebrity meteorologist in our midst!

[StantonParkHoya]

Eric Webb posted his final call which takes RDU area down to 2-5". Seems like more and more dry slot guidance.

I’ll be honest, if we only get that, I’ll call this storm a fail. And not worth the week long dedication to tracking.


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[eyewall]

8 minutes ago, RTPGiants said:

Eric Webb posted his final call which takes RDU area down to 2-5". Seems like more and more dry slot guidance.

At this point we may zero out all together.

[donsutherland1]

HRRR notwithstanding with its strong divergence between the advancing primary low and the developing secondary low that holds Raleigh to around an inch of snow, I suspect that things will be better (3"-6" in Raleigh and surrounding areas in the Triangle).  Reasonable low-case: 2.5"; reasonable high-case: 6.0".

Most of the guidance suggests a healthy snow-growth environment with a deep, well-saturated dendritic growth zone (dgz) with−12°C to −17°C temperatures. The HRRR is a dry exception. Ratios should be 10:1 to 15:1 during the snowfall. Thus, unless the HRRR scores a coup, I think its nightmare won't come to pass in the Raleigh area, even if it gives residents a good fright ahead of the event.

[odell.moton]

Probably more than I will see total. 

Dude shut up with that

Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

[btownheel]

HRRR initialized too dry again. Not sure what the problem is but barely has anything on the radar view while the actual radar has returns over SC, N NC, and the mountains. 

It’s not even close so far.


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[Regan]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

HRRR notwithstanding with its strong divergence between the advancing primary low and the developing secondary low that holds Raleigh to around an inch of snow, I suspect that things will be better (3"-6" in Raleigh and surrounding areas in the Triangle).  Reasonable low-case: 2.5"; reasonable high-case: 6.0".

Most of the guidance suggests a healthy snow-growth environment with a deep, well-saturated dendritic growth zone (dgz) with−12°C to −17°C temperatures. The HRRR is a dry exception. Ratios should be 10:1 to 15:1 during the snowfall. Thus, unless the HRRR scores a coup, I think its nightmare won't come to pass in the Raleigh area, even if it gives residents a good fright ahead of the event.

Thank you 

[AGardiner87]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

HRRR notwithstanding with its strong divergence between the advancing primary low and the developing secondary low that holds Raleigh to around an inch of snow, I suspect that things will be better (3"-6" in Raleigh and surrounding areas in the Triangle).  Reasonable low-case: 2.5"; reasonable high-case: 6.0".

Most of the guidance suggests a healthy snow-growth environment with a deep, well-saturated dendritic growth zone (dgz) with−12°C to −17°C temperatures. The HRRR is a dry exception. Ratios should be 10:1 to 15:1 during the snowfall. Thus, unless the HRRR scores a coup, I think its nightmare won't come to pass in the Raleigh area, even if it gives residents a good fright ahead of the event.

What are your thoughts on the CLT area? 

[lilj4425]

5 minutes ago, odell.moton said:

Dude shut up with that

Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk
 

I know how it works here. It always underperforms. Will be lucky to see more than a dusting. 

[wake4est]

[sinterpol]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

HRRR notwithstanding with its strong divergence between the advancing primary low and the developing secondary low that holds Raleigh to around an inch of snow, I suspect that things will be better (3"-6" in Raleigh and surrounding areas in the Triangle).  Reasonable low-case: 2.5"; reasonable high-case: 6.0".

Most of the guidance suggests a healthy snow-growth environment with a deep, well-saturated dendritic growth zone (dgz) with−12°C to −17°C temperatures. The HRRR is a dry exception. Ratios should be 10:1 to 15:1 during the snowfall. Thus, unless the HRRR scores a coup, I think its nightmare won't come to pass in the Raleigh area, even if it gives residents a good fright ahead of the event.

thoughts on the Sandhills area? 

[IDKMBFFJ]

Non-meteorologist here! Been watching you guys every major storm since last February, it's rather interesting seeing all the different models. Y'all seem to know more than my primary weather apps (weather channel, AccuWeather, weather bug). Really enjoy the almost minute by minute updates.

Weather Channel is currently calling for 8" in the Raleigh NC area in the next 48hrs, up from 6" just a couple hours ago. 

[CaryWx]

10 minutes ago, eyewall said:

At this point we may zero out all together.

"At this point we may zero out"

 

[Stebaney]

It seems like most on this board and some other Mets are decreasing totals more and more. Yet NWS still has 8” for RDU. Why the discrepancy? Who has more credibility for lack of a better word?