The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[StantonParkHoya]

6” is the goal for us. That’s aggressive but this is a storm to do it 

Feels like that’s not too aggressive


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[Ravens94]

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, suzook said:

Lol....wsw for ATL. Air is dry as a bone around here. That front end will be virga. 1 inch max for ATL proper. Flurries south of ATL 

I'd go like 0.5-1.5 for ATL with a risk of up to 2.5-3 in worst case.  But I think WSW criteria there is 2 if its all snow though I am not sure on that.  I think though NE parts of Fulton county may see 2 so all you need is one report of that somewhere.  I was surprised DeKalb was not in a warning to begin with.

[Regan]

RGEM is filling in. In progress. 

[Ravens94]

RGEM is a beatdown on the coast. 

[neverSnowsLCSC]

I can still hardly believe it. Snow two years in a row for the lowcountry and a setup that’s going to give almost all of us in the Carolinas significant accumulation. We’re blessed. 

[SouthCentralWakeCo]

RRFS looks good

[Tony Sisk]

8 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Before we get started on this event, I just want to express one more time how enjoyable this week has been. I wouldn’t want to piss away time on my phone with any other psychopaths! It was good to see so many names I haven’t seen in a while and we may not be done yet. The pattern says we get sleep no time soon. Buckle up baby!

BRAVO, very well said!!!

[Ravens94]

Still snowing on the coast

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Feels like that’s not too aggressive


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6” in Raleigh is always aggressive. In this setup it’s easily doable. 

[Divine]

6 minutes ago, suzook said:

Lol....wsw for ATL. Air is dry as a bone around here. That front end will be virga. 1 inch max for ATL proper. Flurries south of ATL 

1 inch of snow in Atlanta proper shuts down Atlanta

[NorthHillsWx]

ICON delivered another banger 

[ADB83]

A lot of the short range models are starting to look like each other. And then there’s the NAM lol


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[NorthHillsWx]

FV3 was beautiful 

[HWY316wx]

2 minutes ago, Divine said:

1 inch of snow in Atlanta proper shuts down Atlanta

Especially this kind of snow.

[olafminesaw]

Greenville has a great shot at a top 5 daily snowfall record. Even a chance at the all time record of 13" set in 1896

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Divine said:

1 inch of snow in Atlanta proper shuts down Atlanta

Since the 2014 disaster I think everyone just stays home now.  I know the Dec 2017 storm which was a forecasting disaster it was close to another mess but temps stayed just a nose high enough the roads did not ice up before the evening.

[UnionCountyNCWX]

Im still going with 3-5 inches for charlotte. 

 

I refuse to believe in more until its on the ground. 

[UpStateCAD]

Been through these ULL storms several times in the upstate; GSP west typically ends up in the losers bracket.    The precip cut off (gradient) from west to east is typically severe.    I have seen a 6 inch delta from GSP (eastern boarder of Greenville Co) to the Greenville/Pickens county line many times.

Expecting the same sort of gradient this storm.   Add in the leeside downslope dry spot that has been showing up on many of the model, I see a big bust for parts of the upstate.

[olafminesaw]

The RGEM has the look of a model locked in, fairly small shifts over the past 4 runs. 

[franklin NCwx]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Since the 2014 disaster I think everyone just stays home now.  I know the Dec 2017 storm which was a forecasting disaster it was close to another mess but temps stayed just a nose high enough the roads did not ice up before the evening.

A lot more work from home now since covid.  Honestly,  a lot more have moved to this area to get out of the city with remote work

[Divine]

11 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

Im still going with 3-5 inches for charlotte. 

 

I refuse to believe in more until its on the ground. 

Charlotte does always seem to have a 'forcefield' around it that makes these events not preform well  and 3-5 inches is still a HUGE snowfall for snow starved Charlotte. 9 times out of 10 (likely more) it pays to be conservative with snowfall estimates here.

But I will go with 6-8 - I am liking everything I am seeing on the models and the setup.

[Divine]

Posted by Brad P but here are the seasonal snowfalls for Charlotte to put this upcoming snowfall in perspective - it could be more than the last 7 winters combined in a single event.

[Snowberd]

Been through these ULL storms several times in the upstate; GSP west typically ends up in the losers bracket.    The precip cut off (gradient) from west to east is typically severe.    I have seen a 6 inch delta from GSP (eastern boarder of Greenville Co) to the Greenville/Pickens county line many times.
Expecting the same sort of gradient this storm.   Add in the leeside downslope dry spot that has been showing up on many of the model, I see a big bust for parts of the upstate.

That hurts my heart. But I'm used it to except not here. Seems I have an affinity for choosing snowholes to live in. I'm from south shore LI originally (Oceanside/Baldwin) Almost every winter storm we were shafted, barely getting the floor. 6 yrs in southern Greenville/Mauldin, Im sensing upcoming FOMO... Same shit different state I fear .


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[Snowberd]

Been through these ULL storms several times in the upstate; GSP west typically ends up in the losers bracket.    The precip cut off (gradient) from west to east is typically severe.    I have seen a 6 inch delta from GSP (eastern boarder of Greenville Co) to the Greenville/Pickens county line many times.
Expecting the same sort of gradient this storm.   Add in the leeside downslope dry spot that has been showing up on many of the model, I see a big bust for parts of the upstate.

That hurts my heart. But I'm used it to except not here. Seems I have an affinity for choosing snowholes to live in. I'm from south shore LI originally (Oceanside/Baldwin) Almost every winter storm we were shafted, barely getting the floor. 6 yrs in southern Greenville/Mauldin, Im sensing upcoming FOMO... Same shit different state I fear .


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[UpStateCAD]

4 minutes ago, Snowberd said:

That hurts my heart. But I'm used it to except not here. Seems I have an affinity for choosing snowholes to live in. I'm from south shore LI originally (Oceanside/Baldwin) Almost every winter storm we were shafted, barely getting the floor. 6 yrs in southern Greenville/Mauldin, Im sensing upcoming FOMO... Same shit different state I fear .


.

lol.......hope I am wrong.   I certainly do not have the technical skill set to weigh in on this particular set up.    But in all of my years here I have never cashed in on a ULL system in downtown Greenville, but i certainly have seen Spartanburg do very well.

[KrummWx]

Queen City Classic volleyball tournament (Sat, Sun, Mon) in Charlotte hasn't canceled...I feel like thats a bad call. People drive from all over the country to this tournament, and teams are flying in from Puerto Rico and California ffs. 

[olafminesaw]

Do we need to start a separate thread?

[TPAwx]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Do we need to start a separate thread?

Would be good for the sheer novelty and to isolate from the main event in the Carolinas.

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, Divine said:

Posted by Brad P but here are the seasonal snowfalls for Charlotte to put this upcoming snowfall in perspective - it could be more than the last 7 winters combined in a single event.

Charlotte's Last Snowstorms of Select Thresholds:
1" or More: January 21, 2022 1.9"
2" or More: January 16, 2022 2.2"
4" or More: February 11-13, 2014 8.4"
6" or More: February 11-13, 2014 8.4"
8" or More: February 11-13, 2014 8.4"
10" or More: February 26-27, 2004 13.2"
12" or More: February 26-27, 2004 13.2"