The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[Blacksburg Coach]

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

Disagree with that


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Not saying I'm agreeing with the NAM, but we're getting into the zone for short range models and they may be picking up signs that the energy transfers to the coastal and skips central NC

[AirNelson39]

Not a good trend for Raleigh and points West

The only model I’ve been concerned with for Raleigh is the 18z euro. 00z nam just changed significantly for the better for the triangle

[DTP]

16 minutes ago, ILM2714 said:

I’ve heard New Hanover and Brunswick counties in SE NC share a snowplow. The one, they share it. 

Yea- I can confirm this- I have owned a home in OKI since 2012....kinda warranted, however- I have only seen snow down there on a handful of occasions 

They did have an ice storm winter of 2013 in Green Swamp that took out an enormous amount of trees- i had a water line bust under the house that winter.....there is literally nothing on 211 going through Green Swamp for 20 miles- you could get stuck out there very easily 

[ADB83]

It’s so easy to get caught up in model totals and dry slots when they’re not gonna mail it to the exact mile. I can’t remember the last time you could say that any single person in the state of North Carolina, a lot of South Carolina and a good portion of southern Virginia and East Georgia are a good bet to get 2 inches of snow


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[BornAgain13]

Alright who put that dry slot near me? Lol... this is mind boggling. I absolutely have no confidence of what's gonna happen with this storm. 

[SnowDawg]

12km says less than an inch, 3km gives me 6-8. Glad things are clear as mud this close to the storm lol

[TPAwx]

Very rare chance for Tampa Bay area to see flakes in the air overnight Saturday.  Maybe even a dusting in some spots further up the Nature Coast. NAM 3K 2AM Sun lol.

 

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Alright who put that dry slot near me? Lol... this is mind boggling. I absolutely have no confidence of what's gonna happen with this storm. 

Expect the worst lollll. That ULL is too far south. Dry air gonna hurt us funneling in from the north/northeast. Hope I’m wrong. 

[Regan]

The Fish has spoken. He will update again later he hopes but def in the morning. He said don’t get so caught up in this dry air stuff. Moisture will explode a possibly overcome that. 
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1DkgAdhbUX/?mibextid=wwXIfr

 

@PackGrad05

[Blacksburg Coach]

5 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:

The only model I’ve been concerned with for Raleigh is the 18z euro. 00z nam just changed significantly for the better for the triangle

Directly over Raleigh, yes, but that area in general just lost a ton of precip and that snow hole is creeping. Not specific runs just tends

[NCSU_Pi]

40 minutes ago, ILM2714 said:

I’ve heard New Hanover and Brunswick counties in SE NC share a snowplow. The one, they share it. !

I grew up in Shallotte. I barely remember '89. One time we went to the Discovery Place in Charlotte on a field trip, and everyone freaked out because there happened to be some mood flakes that day 

Anything more than half-a-plow would be malinvestment!

[wncsnow]

Icon went nuclear 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Fox Weather tonight said the dry slot has been greatly exaggerated for North Carolina. They said it may be a factor in some places in North Carolina, but almost everyone in the state will still get a good snow out of the system.

[Orange county]

Friday Night

Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 19. Wind chill values as low as 10. Northeast wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Saturday

Snow. High near 24. Wind chill values as low as 5. North wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Snow, mainly before 1am. Low around 14. Blustery, with a north wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possibl

NWS SE Wake

[JoshM]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Icon went nuclear 

 

Indeed, bringing the QPF west a tick at a time and increasing overall amounts.

[Ravens94]

RDPS

[wncsnow]

RDPS also big improvement. One trend I have noticed tonight is the ULL further west and slower

[JoshM]

Icon starts to go Neutral to negative at the right time for western areas.

[HWY316wx]

1 minute ago, Ravens94 said:

RDPS

A lot of members would be happy with this, including myself.

[timnc910]

RGEM said here hold my beer

[NCSU_Pi]

I have an idea, storm: What if we all score big? Seems like you're considering it, and we all want to let you know we'd really appreciate it.

[USCG RS]

7 hours ago, Regan said:

Accurate. On so many levels. Public mets need to just be frank. Plan for a few inches and a whole ton. 

I have this fight with Emergency Management all the time. 

[USCG RS]

23 minutes ago, DTP said:

Yea- I can confirm this- I have owned a home in OKI since 2012....kinda warranted, however- I have only seen snow down there on a handful of occasions 

They did have an ice storm winter of 2013 in Green Swamp that took out an enormous amount of trees- i had a water line bust under the house that winter.....there is literally nothing on 211 going through Green Swamp for 20 miles- you could get stuck out there very easily 

I've heard Greenville county has one plow. 

[Regan]

Seriously if you go to O’Fishel Weather (Greg Fishel) Facebook page linked above, he goes over his thoughts concerning the possibilities and being about to overcome the dry air. It’s a helpful watch. Greg knows NC weather. 

[JoshM]

8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

RDPS also big improvement. One trend I have noticed tonight is the ULL further west and slower

I feel like we're playing pinball with all the tilt we have to worry about.

[AGardiner87]

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1DJUtcLPMC/?mibextid=wwXIfr
 

Brad P update! 

[timnc910]

I am still learning all the models and I am not sure which one this is. Another possible outcome. 

[Orange county]

1 minute ago, AGardiner87 said:

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1DJUtcLPMC/?mibextid=wwXIfr
 

Brad P update! 

Goofy link

Jumps all around to several posts

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, timnc910 said:

I am still learning all the models and I am not sure which one this is. Another possible outcome. 

Good info here:

https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-rrfs/

[Rsheely88]

Big jump with solid precip. Multiply by 15-18:1




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