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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm


lilj4425
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7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Does this include the high ratios especially further north?

yes but again expect adjustments and honestly I am hedging a little low for some spots I am sure.

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Those are some super conservative maps from folks.. goes to show the uncertainty.

More the fact it's snow and underforecasting that won't make people nearly as mad as if they had underforecasted the ice this last weekend.

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43 minutes ago, eyewall said:

May be a graphic of map, arctic and text that says 'First Call as of 8:00am EST 1/28 for the late Friday night nightthrough early Sunday morning storm. Precip PrecipType:AllSnow Type: All Snow Confidence:Lov Low DustingtoanInch Inch Dustingte ပိုလလေ localized (Localizedhigher an higher with amounts mountswith upslopesnow) snow) upslope 五安 1-3Inches 1-3 Inches 3-6 6Inches Inches 6-10Inches decision Notfordecisionmakingpurposes making purposes'

That’s a good first call map, IMO, and I like the more cautious (and responsible) approach.  The only tweak I’d make would be a simple mention of “higher localized amounts possible” in your 6-10” zone.  It’s obviously still a little early for such specifics, but I’ll be surprised if some areas don’t see a foot.  

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Don’t trust a forecast that can’t spell ‘Storm’.

TWC also hugs the GFS and uses that as their main guidance when forecasting totals. I had a friend who was an intern there and he told me they always use the GFS as the “base” and will look at a mix blend of their own in house models, but when they forecast the totals it’s the GFS being used mainly. They hardly ever take the Euro into account.


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Generally speaking, we need to get inside the 48 hour mark for its reliability.  

Agreed. Today’s the Big day for the global runs, adjustments, alignments, etc etc… Tomorrow is when we can really start looking at the mesoscales. 3 days out today, 2 days out tomorrow.


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