The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[BornAgain13]

4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Does this include the high ratios especially further north?

[BornAgain13]

5 minutes ago, ADB83 said:

6z WeatherNext 2.0


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I think @wncsnow will approve!

[BooneWX]

I can’t wait to see the NAM in a bit

[BornAgain13]

Latest SREF through 7 pm Saturday. Lighting it up!

[AirNelson39]

6z WeatherNext 2.0


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That’s a pretty significant shift from what it’s been showing the last 2 days. Good sign

[eyewall]

7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Does this include the high ratios especially further north?

yes but again expect adjustments and honestly I am hedging a little low for some spots I am sure.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Through 7:00 am Saturday 

[Buddy1987]

Those are some super conservative maps from folks.. goes to show the uncertainty.

[WestCentrlVA]

Just now, eyewall said:

yes but again expect adjustments and honestly I am hedging a little low for some spots I am sure.

So you're not buying the high totals the models are putting out currently? I know @Buddy1987 @BornAgain13 @wncsnow and more would love it. Also do you think the trend NW stops?

[KyleEverett]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Those are some super conservative maps from folks.. goes to show the uncertainty.

More the fact it's snow and underforecasting that won't make people nearly as mad as if they had underforecasted the ice this last weekend.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

1 minute ago, KyleEverett said:

More the fact it's snow and underforecasting that won't make people nearly as mad as if they had underforecasted the ice this last weekend.

And it’s only up to 7:00 am SATURDAY

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Hope it works out better than this one  (in all seriousness, that's a pretty reasonable map all things considered)

[SUNYGRAD]

1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Not a bad forecast considering all of the available data.  

[WarmNoseHater]

hopefully the weather model is better than the spell checker for Winter Srorm Gianna

[KChuck]

Truth be told it's all going to depend on where the cyclogenesis sets up off of the coast along with where and how much the moisture draws. The $64,000 question. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[ADB83]

That’s a pretty significant shift from what it’s been showing the last 2 days. Good sign

Each of the last 3 runs of that model have trended toward that solution


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[Buddy1987]

NAM is off and running. Close enough to it's medium range it may start to matter, at least when reviewing 5h panels.

[ncforecaster89]

43 minutes ago, eyewall said:

That’s a good first call map, IMO, and I like the more cautious (and responsible) approach.  The only tweak I’d make would be a simple mention of “higher localized amounts possible” in your 6-10” zone.  It’s obviously still a little early for such specifics, but I’ll be surprised if some areas don’t see a foot.  

[ncforecaster89]

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

NAM is off and running. Close enough to it's medium range it may start to matter, at least when reviewing 5h panels.

Generally speaking, we need to get inside the 48 hour mark for its reliability.  

[QC_Halo]

26 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Don’t trust a forecast that can’t spell ‘Storm’.

[Aleksey]

Don’t trust a forecast that can’t spell ‘Storm’.

TWC also hugs the GFS and uses that as their main guidance when forecasting totals. I had a friend who was an intern there and he told me they always use the GFS as the “base” and will look at a mix blend of their own in house models, but when they forecast the totals it’s the GFS being used mainly. They hardly ever take the Euro into account.


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[Aleksey]

Generally speaking, we need to get inside the 48 hour mark for its reliability.  

Agreed. Today’s the Big day for the global runs, adjustments, alignments, etc etc… Tomorrow is when we can really start looking at the mesoscales. 3 days out today, 2 days out tomorrow.


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[CaryWx]

6 minutes ago, QC_Halo said:

Don’t trust a forecast that can’t spell ‘Storm’.

good grief

[BornAgain13]

8 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

good grief

Lol thats terrible. I just saw it! 

[NCSU_Pi]

18 minutes ago, QC_Halo said:

Don’t trust a forecast that can’t spell ‘Storm’.

Weren't Srorms some creature that lived on Malacandra?

[NorthHillsWx]

This feels like uncharted territory for most of us given the last 7-8 years

[SUNYGRAD]

3 minutes ago, NCSU_Pi said:

Weren't Srorms some creature that lived on Malacandra?

Not sure, but my brain went immediately to the Land of The Lost for some reason.

[Buddy1987]

Nam trying to take the trough and turn it neutral at 34. Not sure which way this is going yet. Some positives though up top with the large lobe above Superior.