BornAgain13 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 4 minutes ago, eyewall said: Does this include the high ratios especially further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 5 minutes ago, ADB83 said: 6z WeatherNext 2.0 . I think @wncsnow will approve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I can’t wait to see the NAM in a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Latest SREF through 7 pm Saturday. Lighting it up! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 6z WeatherNext 2.0.That’s a pretty significant shift from what it’s been showing the last 2 days. Good sign 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Does this include the high ratios especially further north? yes but again expect adjustments and honestly I am hedging a little low for some spots I am sure. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Through 7:00 am Saturday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Those are some super conservative maps from folks.. goes to show the uncertainty. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCentrlVA Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, eyewall said: yes but again expect adjustments and honestly I am hedging a little low for some spots I am sure. So you're not buying the high totals the models are putting out currently? I know @Buddy1987 @BornAgain13 @wncsnow and more would love it. Also do you think the trend NW stops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KyleEverett Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Those are some super conservative maps from folks.. goes to show the uncertainty. More the fact it's snow and underforecasting that won't make people nearly as mad as if they had underforecasted the ice this last weekend. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, KyleEverett said: More the fact it's snow and underforecasting that won't make people nearly as mad as if they had underforecasted the ice this last weekend. And it’s only up to 7:00 am SATURDAY 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Hope it works out better than this one (in all seriousness, that's a pretty reasonable map all things considered) 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Not a bad forecast considering all of the available data. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNoseHater Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 hopefully the weather model is better than the spell checker for Winter Srorm Gianna 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Truth be told it's all going to depend on where the cyclogenesis sets up off of the coast along with where and how much the moisture draws. The $64,000 question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADB83 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 That’s a pretty significant shift from what it’s been showing the last 2 days. Good signEach of the last 3 runs of that model have trended toward that solution . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 NAM is off and running. Close enough to it's medium range it may start to matter, at least when reviewing 5h panels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 43 minutes ago, eyewall said: That’s a good first call map, IMO, and I like the more cautious (and responsible) approach. The only tweak I’d make would be a simple mention of “higher localized amounts possible” in your 6-10” zone. It’s obviously still a little early for such specifics, but I’ll be surprised if some areas don’t see a foot. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: NAM is off and running. Close enough to it's medium range it may start to matter, at least when reviewing 5h panels. Generally speaking, we need to get inside the 48 hour mark for its reliability. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 26 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Don’t trust a forecast that can’t spell ‘Storm’. 4 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Don’t trust a forecast that can’t spell ‘Storm’.TWC also hugs the GFS and uses that as their main guidance when forecasting totals. I had a friend who was an intern there and he told me they always use the GFS as the “base” and will look at a mix blend of their own in house models, but when they forecast the totals it’s the GFS being used mainly. They hardly ever take the Euro into account. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Generally speaking, we need to get inside the 48 hour mark for its reliability. Agreed. Today’s the Big day for the global runs, adjustments, alignments, etc etc… Tomorrow is when we can really start looking at the mesoscales. 3 days out today, 2 days out tomorrow. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 6 minutes ago, QC_Halo said: Don’t trust a forecast that can’t spell ‘Storm’. good grief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 8 minutes ago, CaryWx said: good grief Lol thats terrible. I just saw it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 18 minutes ago, QC_Halo said: Don’t trust a forecast that can’t spell ‘Storm’. Weren't Srorms some creature that lived on Malacandra? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 This feels like uncharted territory for most of us given the last 7-8 years 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, NCSU_Pi said: Weren't Srorms some creature that lived on Malacandra? Not sure, but my brain went immediately to the Land of The Lost for some reason. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Nam trying to take the trough and turn it neutral at 34. Not sure which way this is going yet. Some positives though up top with the large lobe above Superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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