eyewall Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Can a met chime in on which models are used for the NBM? Are AI models in it? Weathernext? NAM (North American Mesoscale Forecast System - 12km) NAMNest (NAM 3km high resolution nest) GFS (Global Forecast System) GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) GDPS (CMC - Environment Canada Global Deterministic – PoP12/QPF06 only) GEPS (CMCE - Environment Canada Global Ensemble) EKDMOS (Ensemble Kernel Density Model Output Statistics) Gridded GFS MOS (GMOS or MOSGuide) HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh), CONUS only RAP (Rapid Refresh). (Also RAP Alaska) Gridded LAMP (GLMP Localized Aviation MOS Product), CONUS only HiResWindow ARW NCEP (High-Resolution Window Forecast System (HIRESW)) HiResWindow NMMB NCEP (High-Resolution Window Forecast System (HIRESW)) SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) CONUS, Alaska, Puerto Rico sectors NAVGEME (Navy FNMOC Global Ensemble) The Euro is also in there 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 18z AI GFS trended wetter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, eyewall said: NAM (North American Mesoscale Forecast System - 12km) NAMNest (NAM 3km high resolution nest) GFS (Global Forecast System) GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) GDPS (CMC - Environment Canada Global Deterministic – PoP12/QPF06 only) GEPS (CMCE - Environment Canada Global Ensemble) EKDMOS (Ensemble Kernel Density Model Output Statistics) Gridded GFS MOS (GMOS or MOSGuide) HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh), CONUS only RAP (Rapid Refresh). (Also RAP Alaska) Gridded LAMP (GLMP Localized Aviation MOS Product), CONUS only HiResWindow ARW NCEP (High-Resolution Window Forecast System (HIRESW)) HiResWindow NMMB NCEP (High-Resolution Window Forecast System (HIRESW)) SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) CONUS, Alaska, Puerto Rico sectors NAVGEME (Navy FNMOC Global Ensemble) The Euro is also in there Good old NavGem still being used Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEwakenosnowforu Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 12 minutes ago, eyewall said: 18z GFS is a whiff here: Well...5 days out that looks good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Seems like this forecast is all about how close the L tracks west vs out over the ocean. We’ll know in a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 14 minutes ago, eyewall said: 18z GFS is a whiff here: Thankfully, it’s only the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADB83 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 18z AIFS very similar to 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 18z Euro not bad at this range. Shows snow for most of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 We can work with this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just need a few ticks west/more digging and its a big from Murphy to Manteo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheoahBald1 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just need a few ticks west/more digging and its a big from Murphy to Manteo. When is the next run of the weathernext model?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 18z AI Euro looks really close to 12z, just a hair east. Ratios would be about 15:1 with the temps being modeled. So these totals would be a couple inches more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Just need a few ticks west/more digging and its a big from Murphy to Manteo. Need to go back and look at H5. Really thought the surface would have been better with gulf low placement and transfer. The big dogs usually transfer right off shore at the Ga Fl line. Still showing off NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, CheoahBald1 said: When is the next run of the weathernext model? . Should be out at 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 4 minutes ago, CheoahBald1 said: When is the next run of the weathernext model? . 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 The boom potential is high with this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omen Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Nice uptick on the EPS for those of us in Virginia. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 22 minutes ago, eyewall said: 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 18z Euro and Euro AI are big hits. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 24 minutes ago, eyewall said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 The Euro AI (Kuchera not available for this one): 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Can someone make both the positive and negative case about Euro performance at this range vs. last week's storm? Not just a "we never get snow" vs "it has to work once" argument, but an actual data based assessment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, eyewall said: The Euro AI: Decent amount of moisture. Would be nice to see a Kuchera map given the cold air (even though that's just splitting hairs at this point) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 27 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Just need a few ticks west/more digging and its a big from Murphy to Manteo. yes a little more dig to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 The SPIRE Model drops 2-3' lol 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just blooming too late for the ILM area it seems. Strange how there’s not more precip down that way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowncanes Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, NCBlizzard said: Decent amount of moisture. Would be nice to see a Kuchera map given the cold air (even though that's just splitting hairs at this point) I’d say most models are spitting out about 15-1 ratios over most of central NC it seems based on comparing QPF to snowfall maps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I would rather have the Euro/AI/EPS on our side first but it would be nice to see the GFS throw a nice bone for us to chew on. Lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: I would rather have the Euro/AI/EPS on our side first but it would be nice to see the GFS throw a nice bone for us to chew on. Lol I was indeed somewhat impressed in the Euro AI. I wish I had done a bit more comparison of it against the AI GFS. Not sure if anyone has thoughts on that comparison specifically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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