The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[eyewall]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Can a met chime in on which models are used for the NBM? Are AI models in it? Weathernext? 

• NAM (North American Mesoscale Forecast System - 12km)
• NAMNest (NAM 3km high resolution nest)
• GFS (Global Forecast System)
• GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System)
• GDPS (CMC - Environment Canada Global Deterministic – PoP12/QPF06 only)
• GEPS (CMCE - Environment Canada Global Ensemble)
• EKDMOS (Ensemble Kernel Density Model Output Statistics)
• Gridded GFS MOS (GMOS or MOSGuide)
• HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh), CONUS only
• RAP (Rapid Refresh). (Also RAP Alaska)
• Gridded LAMP (GLMP Localized Aviation MOS Product), CONUS only
• HiResWindow ARW NCEP (High-Resolution Window Forecast System (HIRESW))
• HiResWindow NMMB NCEP (High-Resolution Window Forecast System (HIRESW))
• SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) CONUS, Alaska, Puerto Rico sectors
• NAVGEME (Navy FNMOC Global Ensemble)
  
  The Euro is also in there 

[WXNewton]

18z AI GFS trended wetter.

[wncsnow]

3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

• NAM (North American Mesoscale Forecast System - 12km)
• NAMNest (NAM 3km high resolution nest)
• GFS (Global Forecast System)
• GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System)
• GDPS (CMC - Environment Canada Global Deterministic – PoP12/QPF06 only)
• GEPS (CMCE - Environment Canada Global Ensemble)
• EKDMOS (Ensemble Kernel Density Model Output Statistics)
• Gridded GFS MOS (GMOS or MOSGuide)
• HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh), CONUS only
• RAP (Rapid Refresh). (Also RAP Alaska)
• Gridded LAMP (GLMP Localized Aviation MOS Product), CONUS only
• HiResWindow ARW NCEP (High-Resolution Window Forecast System (HIRESW))
• HiResWindow NMMB NCEP (High-Resolution Window Forecast System (HIRESW))
• SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) CONUS, Alaska, Puerto Rico sectors
• NAVGEME (Navy FNMOC Global Ensemble)
  
  The Euro is also in there 

Good old NavGem still being used

[SEwakenosnowforu]

12 minutes ago, eyewall said:

18z GFS is a whiff here:

Well...5 days out that looks good

[stormwatcherJ]

Seems like this forecast is all about how close the L tracks west vs out over the ocean. We’ll know in a couple of days.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

14 minutes ago, eyewall said:

18z GFS is a whiff here:

Thankfully, it’s only the GFS

[ADB83]

18z AIFS very similar to 12z


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[Upstate Tiger]

18z Euro not bad at this range.  Shows snow for most of NC.  

[eyewall]

[Upstate Tiger]

We can work with this.  
 

[wncsnow]

Just need a few ticks west/more digging and its a big from Murphy to Manteo. 

[CheoahBald1]

Just need a few ticks west/more digging and its a big from Murphy to Manteo. 

When is the next run of the weathernext model?


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[WXNewton]

18z AI Euro looks really close to 12z, just a hair east. Ratios would be about 15:1 with the temps being modeled. So these totals would be a couple inches more. 

[Upstate Tiger]

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Just need a few ticks west/more digging and its a big from Murphy to Manteo. 

Need to go back and look at H5.  Really thought the surface would have been better with gulf low placement and transfer.  The big dogs usually transfer right off shore at the Ga Fl line.  Still showing off NC.  

[BooneWX]

3 minutes ago, CheoahBald1 said:

When is the next run of the weathernext model?


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Should be out at 8

[wncsnow]

4 minutes ago, CheoahBald1 said:

When is the next run of the weathernext model?


.

8

[BooneWX]

The boom potential is high with this one 

[Omen]

Nice uptick on the EPS for those of us in Virginia. 

[HKY_WX]

22 minutes ago, eyewall said:

[BornAgain13]

18z Euro and Euro AI are big hits. 

[CaryWx]

24 minutes ago, eyewall said:

[eyewall]

The Euro AI (Kuchera not available for this one):

[RTPGiants]

Can someone make both the positive and negative case about Euro performance at this range vs. last week's storm? Not just a "we never get snow" vs "it has to work once" argument, but an actual data based assessment?

[NCBlizzard]

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The Euro AI:

Decent amount of moisture. Would be nice to see a Kuchera map given the cold air (even though that's just splitting hairs at this point)

 

[Tacoma]

27 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Just need a few ticks west/more digging and its a big from Murphy to Manteo. 

yes a little more dig to the west

 

[BornAgain13]

The SPIRE Model drops 2-3' lol

 

[StantonParkHoya]

Just blooming too late for the ILM area it seems. Strange how there’s not more precip down that way.


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[Snowncanes]

1 minute ago, NCBlizzard said:

Decent amount of moisture. Would be nice to see a Kuchera map given the cold air (even though that's just splitting hairs at this point)

 

I’d say most models are spitting out about 15-1 ratios over most of central NC it seems based on comparing QPF to snowfall maps.

[BornAgain13]

I would rather have the Euro/AI/EPS on our side first but it would be nice to see the GFS throw a nice bone for us to chew on. Lol

[NCBlizzard]

6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I would rather have the Euro/AI/EPS on our side first but it would be nice to see the GFS throw a nice bone for us to chew on. Lol

I was indeed somewhat impressed in the Euro AI. I wish I had done a bit more comparison of it against the AI GFS. Not sure if anyone has thoughts on that comparison specifically?