The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[franklin NCwx]

Congrats ocean city maryland again!

[Ravens94]

The talk of 1980 500mb charts are really similar to this setup. Just need a bombing low off GA

https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar011980EventReview

[WinstonSalemArlington]

11 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Congrats ocean city maryland again!

And Ahoskie!

[wncsnow]

Pretty similar at 500mb to this gem

[SEwakenosnowforu]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Yes. 30 inches and 4 foot drifts near Havelock, NC. Wild scene.

I wonder why the outerbanks got so little? Warm air or dry slot? I thought the 80 storm was SUPER cold?? I was only 4 and lived in Wilson...I slightly remember it.

[BornAgain13]

Model waffles will continue for the next couple of days before honing in on a scenario. 

[wncsnow]

This setup feels a little similar too just more coastal development. 

[StantonParkHoya]

Has anyone pulled the actual analogs? I was just eyeballing '80, but have not.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

14 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Pretty similar at 500mb to this gem

Good grief! 30” in Carteret and Craven counties!!!

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Good grief! 30” in Carteret and Craven counties!!!

Correct. Down East NC has a larger one-time snowstorm total than Toronto, Ontario.

[fig]

Maybe December 1989 as an analog?

[wncsnow]

Weathernext is a little east of last run but still solid for NC 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

Correct. Down East NC has a larger one-time snowstorm total than Toronto, Ontario.

And Toronto has a new all-time 24-daily snowfall record:  22 inches! 

[HKY_WX]

6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Has anyone pulled the actual analogs? I was just eyeballing '80, but have not.

Dec 24-26 2010 is very similar but again nothing is perfect as we learned last week. Each setup is unique in its own way. The timing on this one has to be very good. Definitely a boom/bust scenario.

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2010/us1225.php

[CheoahBald1]

Weathernext is a little east of last run but still solid for NC 

Does it show east TN still in the game? Just curious how far east it went


.

[WXNewton]

8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

This setup feels a little similar too just more coastal development. 

That was a great storm, was under forecast for foothill and NW Piedmont. If I remember correctly a meso-low formed on the East side of the apps. 

[BornAgain13]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Weathernext is a little east of last run but still solid for NC 

Pic?

[wncsnow]

[UpStateCAD]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

i'd take it

[BooneWX]

10 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Mind you, those aren’t Kuchera ratios. It spit out .75” of QPF under the ULL in the western Carolinas. Would likely be 8-10” with the projected temps. 

[BooneWX]

Weathernext also presents a way for a maximum amount of people to win. Western Carolina’s, n ga, s va get hammered by the upper low and the surface low cleans up the map down east.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

What is BAM saying?

[UpStateCAD]

5 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Weathernext also presents a way for a maximum amount of people to win. Western Carolina’s, n ga, s va get hammered by the upper low and the surface low cleans up the map down east.

where can one find the Weathernext runs?

[PeeDeeWx]

18 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

How did this model handle this past weekends storm?

[NC_hailstorm]

20 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Weathernext is a little east of last run but still solid for NC 

Still .50 to .75 to Asheville-GSP now,the .75 to 1.00 moved east of Raleigh though.

[Orange county]

My apple phone says 6-7 Saturday-2-3 Sunday'It also told me  at one point 20-25 inches this past weekend..............

[wncsnow]

4 minutes ago, PeeDeeWx said:

How did this model handle this past weekends storm?

Very well it was north of every model and closest to verification 

[HKY_WX]

The JMA is in our corner (aka the standard bearer).

 

 

[olafminesaw]

Euro AI and AI EPS are both looking really good

[wncsnow]

Here are the CIPS analogs (March 1980 is number 1)