February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[Terpeast]

41 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Book your tee times, plant those spring bulbs, get the grill ready...

 

Phil says nasofast...

[Eskimo Joe]

7 hours ago, high risk said:

Saturday looks brutal, with temps in the mid to upper teens and sustained winds in the 20-30mph with higher gusts.

Good

[snowfan]

12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Phil says nasofast...

So we have a 60% chance of an early spring based on that rodents historical success rate.

[GreyHat]

25 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Phil says nasofast...

Wish as it would be nice to get rid of this ice. Some back roads still suck.

I'll take the rain at that time frame but my long range is only looking like 40

 

[snowfan]

14 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Wish as it would be nice to get rid of this ice. Some back roads still suck.

I'll take the rain at that time frame but my long range is only looking like 40

 

Youre not going to find many in this sub that prefer rain right now. Its winter and this is a sick bunch.

[Eskimo Joe]

22 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Wish as it would be nice to get rid of this ice. Some back roads still suck.

I'll take the rain at that time frame but my long range is only looking like 40.

It can rain 11.5 months out of the year. Give us snow bro.

[adelphi_sky]

At least we can imagine we keep getting snow since the snow from the last storm is still on the ground.   I don't know. I'm grasping at any comfort right now. 

[Terpeast]

Both GEFS and EPS have a follow up wave on the 15th after a cutter, with a cold enough airmass for us. I'll be watching that one.

[Heisy]

All 3 Ensembles depict a chance for a winter storm mid month. That has looked like the most favorable window for awhile now. The difference compared to now is enough of a pattern change to inhibit significantly below avg cold to make it into our area, so as it looks currently, marginal cold would have to do it along with a favorable storm track and dynamics. That's all stuff that cant be resolved this far out.

13-14th is certainly the next legit chance. Airmass issues as the 50/50 is cut off from the flow and we have that ride bridge effect. Ensembles are in good agreement for that ridge Feb 10-11. However, we can have it work out if energy from the trough out west is able to come out in pieces that way we get at least one or two fronts to knock down the ridge. We don’t want it coming East as one big shortwave.

6z AiGFS showed an example of this. It sent a wave across in the 10-11th range which knocked down the ridge. It ended up being just too warm for us, but close enough.

We’ll see how it evolves

[Diesel BrokeHer]

12 hours ago, snowfan said:

Where is RIC?? It's freezing here too. Jumped right over us. I feel left out. (though maybe we hit 33/34 yesterday? Everything is still covered in hard, solid blocks of ice, so it's certainly not been far over the mark)

[frd]

The - AO on the rise.  Have to see late month's reaction to the strat. Its been a crazy ride so far. 

 

 

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, frd said:

The - AO on the rise.  Have to see late month's reaction to the strat. Its been a crazy ride so far. 

 

 

Strat warming is on the atlantic side, so that should knock the AO back down. Can already see hints of it doing that in the dashed mean line starting to turn downwards right at the end. 

[GreyHat]

27 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Both GEFS and EPS have a follow up wave on the 15th after a cutter, with a cold enough airmass for us. I'll be watching that one.

I noticed how the warmth on the Euro IA, GFS AI, GFS, EPS, EPSAI through Feb 17 18z.  It will be interesting on how far the cold moves south. At the end of the 00z EPS run, it shows most of PA down to the 20s,