February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[CAPE]

Just now, Ji said:

Maybe cape can answer this but is the phasing on the euro affecting the movement of tpv

Maybe we just want an unphased bowling ball that’s more northerly like Canadian has

I think there is a very narrow path to victory for this, and the Canadian is probably close to it. The track and strength of the low is critical with the lack of antecedent cold. It probably will take heavy precip and dynamic cooling to get accumulating snow for places east of the mountains. Unlikely to see frozen regardless on the coastal plain.

[CAPE]

This was the ultimate way to win for the region, but a complete thread the needle with the perfect phase and that intense vortex near the 50-50 region

[stormy]

50 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This was the ultimate way to win for the region, but a complete thread the needle with the perfect phase and that intense vortex near the 50-50 region

Thanks Cape!     This is a reasonable explanation.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, stormy said:

Thanks Cape!     This is a reasonable explanation.

More detailed discussion in the other thread including the 0z Canadian run.

[Nomz]

Looks like our last shot for snow this season 

[Alfoman]

5 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Looks like our last shot for snow this season 

It's February 11th

[Nomz]

22 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

It's February 11th

We're gettin torched 

[MickeyTim6533]

3 minutes ago, Nomz said:

We're gettin torched 

says who?

[paxpatriot]

12 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

says who?

Probably heard it on the radio.

[JenkinsJinkies]

15 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

says who?

They saw the forecasted highs for next week and extrapolated without consulting long range models.

[Duca892]

GFS remains steadfast with an absolute nothingburger for snow

[rjvanals]

Canadian gives us some wet snow changing over to rain but it's trending in the wrong direction 

[psuhoffman]

I have been crazy busy at work and don't have time to catch up at the moment so I apologize if this is redundant.  But after looking at all of last nights data it's clear there is a path to a snow, especially NW of 95, but it's a narrow one.  We need basically the 0z euro solution, or something close to it...0zGGEM.  A storm that is amplified enough to dynamically cool the marginal airmass, and in the case of the euro maybe even amplified enough to draw down some of the cold that is just north of us.  

But this is a narrow path...but the reason that solution keeps showing up randomly across guidance is it's still there as a possible outcome.  But the more likely outcome obviously is one of the many other options...either the wave isn't amplified enough and slides south...or we get light rain, or it amplifies but amps TOO much and ends up tracking too far inside and the snow is up in PA like the 6z Euro.  There are several options left and only one leads to snow but it's still there.  Maybe we get lucky this time!  We're definitely due. 

For places SE of 95 they are in a bit of a double bind.  We need an amplified system because of the marginal airmass.  A weak wave will just be light rain.  But an amplified system tracking in close enough would likely have too much SE wind component for those locations...and without any elevation...it's just a really uphill battle there.  Not totally impossible but it would take everything going absolutely perfect...even in the good track amplified option.  

[87storms]

Next…

[Weather Will]

Have a system to track inside 5 days..

12Z model summary.

GFS:  still a southern slider with no phasing. Heaviest precip. southeast; DC about .3 inch; temps upper 30s-40s SE.

Canadian: less amped this run so not as cold; but still snow for NW burbs.  Precip. 1-2 inches; 6 inches snow NW; 2 inches DC; temps mid 30s this run compared to upper 20s last run.

 

[87storms]

There might be some ppl playing hookie next week. Looking like a decent little thaw incoming.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Next…

it's still over 100 out and things are close...stop over reacting to every run.  It's unlikely but the solution we need is a minor adjustment still well within the margin or error of what guidance is currently showing.  I think because this showed up 15 days out as a threat window...and we've been tracking it SOOOO long...people think it's closer than it is and are reacting to every run like we are 48 hours out and a trend means...thats it..this is the final solution.  We are still 5 days away, time for things to wobble one away or the other.  We need a slightly stronger storm that takes a perfect track.  That is going to be difficult..we will need luck...but its not like we need some HUGE adjustment from what guidance is showing.  Depending on where you're located of course...

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

it's still over 100 out and things are close...stop over reacting to every run.  It's unlikely but the solution we need is a minor adjustment still well within the margin or error of what guidance is currently showing.  I think because this showed up 15 days out as a threat window...and we've been tracking it SOOOO long...people think it's closer than it is and are reacting to every run like we are 48 hours out and a trend means...thats it..this is the final solution.  We are still 5 days away, time for things to wobble one away or the other.  We need a slightly stronger storm that takes a perfect track.  That is going to be difficult..we will need luck...but its not like we need some HUGE adjustment from what guidance is showing.  Depending on where you're located of course...

after years of bad luck can we finally have it on our side? who knows.

[psuhoffman]

The UK is a miss south...but in one way it's a win.  We have 2 things we need here...precip and temps.  The UK is colder!  If the storm had tracked further north it would have been snow...no issues with that thermal profile as the storm slides to our south.  That is important...the runs that are both weak AND warm are the really bad runs... I'll take the UK look...we would just need the storm to be slightly more amplified/north to win. 

[Duca892]

UKIE generally is a precursor to what the EURO will show right? 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Duca892 said:

UKIE generally is a precursor to what the EURO will show right? 

used to be, not anymore.  I think at one point their physics were pretty similar, but the euro has changed several times over the last 10 years and I've noticed they no longer are in lock step as much as in the past.  

[SnowenOutThere]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

it's still over 100 out and things are close...stop over reacting to every run.  It's unlikely but the solution we need is a minor adjustment still well within the margin or error of what guidance is currently showing.  I think because this showed up 15 days out as a threat window...and we've been tracking it SOOOO long...people think it's closer than it is and are reacting to every run like we are 48 hours out and a trend means...thats it..this is the final solution.  We are still 5 days away, time for things to wobble one away or the other.  We need a slightly stronger storm that takes a perfect track.  That is going to be difficult..we will need luck...but its not like we need some HUGE adjustment from what guidance is showing.  Depending on where you're located of course...

Agree hard with this. The storm is as far out as the Jan 25th storm was when it was showing a flush hit of 2+ feet of snow! Things can still change majorly, who knows this might evolve into a cutter to Chicago or a storm which doesn't even get precip into VA.  

[Weather Will]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

it's still over 100 out and things are close...stop over reacting to every run.  It's unlikely but the solution we need is a minor adjustment still well within the margin or error of what guidance is currently showing.  I think because this showed up 15 days out as a threat window...and we've been tracking it SOOOO long...people think it's closer than it is and are reacting to every run like we are 48 hours out and a trend means...thats it..this is the final solution.  We are still 5 days away, time for things to wobble one away or the other.  We need a slightly stronger storm that takes a perfect track.  That is going to be difficult..we will need luck...but its not like we need some HUGE adjustment from what guidance is showing.  Depending on where you're located of course...

The tracking so long is really exhausting.  Really need to dial back until we get inside 5 days to keep one's sanity.  Just look at whether pattern is favorable outside 5 days rather than focus on a particular shortwave.

[87storms]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

it's still over 100 out and things are close...stop over reacting to every run.  It's unlikely but the solution we need is a minor adjustment still well within the margin or error of what guidance is currently showing.  I think because this showed up 15 days out as a threat window...and we've been tracking it SOOOO long...people think it's closer than it is and are reacting to every run like we are 48 hours out and a trend means...thats it..this is the final solution.  We are still 5 days away, time for things to wobble one away or the other.  We need a slightly stronger storm that takes a perfect track.  That is going to be difficult..we will need luck...but it’s not like we need some HUGE adjustment from what guidance is showing.  Depending on where you're located of course...

A lot of wishcasting though. Uk is south but “if” it was north. Gfs is rain but “if” we get dynamic cooling. I think your area has a better chance because of elevation, but the airmass leading in is not conducive to snow for the majority of us. Maybe I’ll drive up to the top of Catoctin mountain and hang out for the day. I’m due for a hike.

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

A lot of wishcasting though. Uk is south but “if” it was north. Gfs is rain but “if” we get dynamic cooling. I think your area has a better chance because of elevation, but the airmass leading in is not conducive to snow for the majority of us. Maybe I’ll drive up to the top of Catoctin mountain and hang out for the day. I’m due for a hike.

I'm thinking the same thing. Sounds like a perfect opportunity to score a hike in the Catoctins. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

The tracking so long is really exhausting.  Really need to dial back until we get inside 5 days to keep one's sanity.  Just look at whether pattern is favorable outside 5 days rather than focus on a particular shortwave.

I glance at stuff in the long range but I've stopped tracking daily specific threats until they are inside day 5-6 and it's improved my mental health!  Jan 2016 I was exhausted by the time it snowed...tracking every run for 10 days...worried it was going to rug pull...I would have enjoyed that much more had I not done that.  And that was our last huge WIN and I didn't even enjoy it as much as I should have because of the anxiety of tracking it so long.  

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I'm thinking the same thing. Sounds like a perfect opportunity to score a hike in the Catoctins. 

I just need the glacier to soften up a little bit lol.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

A lot of wishcasting though. Uk is south but “if” it was north. Gfs is rain but “if” we get dynamic cooling. I think your area has a better chance because of elevation, but the airmass leading in is not conducive to snow for the majority of us. Maybe I’ll drive up to the top of Catoctin mountain and hang out for the day. I’m due for a hike.

It's not that complicated.  We need two things, a more amplified system and a slightly colder thermal profile.  Both minor adjustments from what is the consensus.  And...both kind of can be related to the same adjustment...a perfect track more amplified wave would also dynamically cool the thermal profile some!  So in one way ONE adjustment would work.  The random snow runs showing up from run to run across guidance aren't crazy different from all the non snow guidance...they just have a slightly more amplified wave and slightly colder temps.  

The UK was not that bad because it was damn close WRT amplitude compared to its last 2 runs which were WAY south.  This one just missed us...slightly more amplified and it was a snowstorm for our area!  That isn't wishcasting...that is what the model showed...it was close...and being close at 100 hours is good enough for me, it keeps us in the game.  I admitted its a long shot but there is a difference between that and close the thread its over, next.  

[87storms]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I glance at stuff in the long range but I've stopped tracking daily specific threats until they are inside day 5-6 and it's improved my mental health!  Jan 2016 I was exhausted by the time it snowed...tracking every run for 10 days...worried it was going to rug pull...I would have enjoyed that much more had I not done that.  And that was our last huge WIN and I didn't even enjoy it as much as I should have because of the anxiety of tracking it so long.  

I felt that one was pretty locked in and actually took a lot of pics and vids, but the last storm I should have taken more breaks. Having a cold didn’t help.

[dailylurker]

5 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I just need the glacier to soften up a little bit lol.

Order some micro spikes from Amazon. I put 62 miles on mine. All on the glacier. It was awesome. I know lots of cool spots if you want to meet up. I like to get up high as high in elevation as possible. I hike up to the peaks. Trail or not.