February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Because the PNA isn't neutral

We snowed with a -pna in the past. Not when it’s -4stdv you’re right. But why is it that when the pna goes negative it’s never -1 it’s -3 now?  You’re beating around it. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

We snowed with a -pna in the past. Not when it’s -4stdv you’re right. But why is it that when the pna goes negative it’s never -1 it’s -3 now?  You’re beating around it. 

Something like 31/762 cases does not support a forecast position.. What's your call on High temps Feb 15-16?

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Something like 31/762 cases does not support a forecast position.. What's your call on High temps Feb 15-16?

Depends on whether there is a storm or not. It will be a lot warmer if it’s sunny than raining or snowing. 

[psuhoffman]

But that has nothing to do with my point. You’re focused on this synoptic setup and I’m focused on something that’s skewing the underlying pattern behind the synoptic setup 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Depends on whether there is a storm or not. It will be a lot warmer if it’s sunny than raining or snowing. 

I'll probably give it a 3% chance for all snow at this point. 15% chance for some snow at some point, at least on I95. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'll probably give it a 3% chance for all snow at this point. 15% chance for some snow at some point. 

We never have a good chance of an all snow event in any pattern 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We never have a good chance of an all snow event in any pattern 

Too bad we had a Nina STJ this year. It was a nina-stj last winter too. Too bad, the AO was favorable

[Maestrobjwa]

Well...at least this is an on-topic back and forth  But still though...lol

[DDweatherman]

Sorry to anyone who saw the increase of pages since about 6pm and said WOAH what happened only to see nothing did on the models…just debate club. 

[Amped]

High over Bermuda, 500mb low tracking over Northern Florida. What more can you ask for from the GFS?

[bncho]

If the GFS verified it'd be a storm with no frozen at all in mid Feb, not even on the northern edge of precip (which extends to NYC), save for a few very tiny ZR pockets that are just 32 degree rain

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

If the GFS verified it'd be a storm with no frozen at all in mid Feb, not even on the northern edge of precip (which extends to NYC), save for a few very tiny ZR pockets that are just 32 degree rain

Can we please go back to the debate, this is unimportant. 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

If the GFS verified it'd be a storm with no frozen at all in mid Feb, not even on the northern edge of precip (which extends to NYC), save for a few very tiny ZR pockets that are just 32 degree rain

It sounds like the problem here is more of a timing isssue. In the runs that snowed the precip came in earlier. But with the most recent ones...things develop so slow that the cold air is already scoured out by the time the storm gets here. But I could be wrong. @psuhoffman feel free to clarify

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It sounds like the problem here is more of a timing isssue. In the runs that snowed the precip came in earlier. But with the most recent ones...things develop so slow that the cold air is already scoured out by the time the storm gets here. But I could be wrong. @psuhoffman feel free to clarify

No you're right, the delay in the ejection of the shortwave allows the cold air to escape

[stormtracker]

Almost time to shit the blinds on this threat. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Wonder how long it'll take before the AIs finally correct themselves? Lol I'd bet on Day 5!

[Solution Man]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Almost time to shit the blinds on this threat. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Yeah it's the GFS, but

Here's later that day.. probably a little extreme but it shows that there is some potential for a nice warm up. Sounding says DCA is 75F. 

[TowsonWeather]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

JFC I was starting to think I wasn’t articulating well enough. 

It's Chuck. 

It has nothing to do with how well you articulate something. It's like getting frustrated because the moose isn't putting together the IKEA cabinet you wrote the instructions for. No matter how clear you make em, it's still a moose and it's still just gonna keep doing moosey things. 

[Maestrobjwa]

25 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah it's the GFS, but

Here's later that day.. probably a little extreme but it shows that there is some potential for a nice warm up. Sounding says DCA is 75F. 

Nice? Maaaaan ain't nobody but the heat misers want that right now, lol But a pronounced SER would fit nina clomo though...

[Maestrobjwa]

Huh...OP Euro actually looking like it's AI counterpart. Completely suppressed this run!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It was 71F in Nashville today. The next few days may bust a little bit warmer, although snowcover may keep it cooler. 

[TowsonWeather]

21 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It was 71F in Nashville today. The next few days may bust a little bit warmer, although snowcover may keep it cooler. 

Fascinating stuff. 
 

You should head on over to the Tennessee Valley forum and update them immediately on this big news. 

[mattskiva]

So clearly this is the banter thread now right?  Cause scrolling through page after page of this noise to find like 2 posts about model runs is just, well, a joyous way to spend the day

 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, mattskiva said:

So clearly this is the banter thread now right?  Cause scrolling through page after page of this noise to find like 2 posts about model runs is just, well, a joyous way to spend the day

 

Oddly enough, Round 2 of this debate has been technically on topic though page consuming, lol

[Jebman]

This thread has gone completely to hell and back folks.

We could at least track severe weather.

[RevWarReenactor]

5 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Almost time to shit the blinds on this threat. 

Remember last week when I said you all are tracking a rainstorm and I was accused of negativity and whining and now 5 days of models runs later and you admit that I am in fact.......

Correct. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

The euro really caved to the euro ai it seems. Good to know! But yeah this period is just too warm.  

[Heisy]

6z Euro is a good hit for you guys

It trended towards the cmc idea of that northern stream maybe diving SE last second to phase with it. More was falling after this panel. It also has that little ULL in a perfect 50/50 spot

[Paleocene]

8 minutes ago, Heisy said:

6z Euro is a good hit for you guys

It trended towards the cmc idea of that northern stream maybe diving SE last second to phase with it. More was falling after this panel. It also has that little ULL in a perfect 50/50 spot

 

Indeed. 06z euro says wake up mid Atlantic and don't shit the blinds just yet!