February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[mitchnick]

6hr snowfall on 18z Eps at 144hrs. Nothing in our area before that hour.

[Weather Will]

Kind of exhausted tracking the last two weeks; get something showing up inside 5 days and I will  get back on the saddle...

[Blizzard of 93]

21 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z AI EPS tanked like the GEFS.

The lower snow totals on the 18z AI EPS are  mostly due to a south & east track cluster and lower precipitation totals that held down snow amounts on most members. It basically followed the Op AI Euro this run.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The lower snow totals on the 18z AI EPS are  mostly due to a south & east track cluster and lower precipitation totals that held down snow amounts on most members. It basically followed the Op AI Euro this run.

18z AI EPS main issue is lack of good precip getting near most of the region.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

18z AI EPS main issue is lack of good precip getting near most of the region.

Seems like mother nature is doing her best to pad the snow stats of central and southern VA, but even she can fail too with rain getting in the way.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Seems like mother nature is doing her best to pad the snow stats of central and southern VA, but even she can fail too with rain getting in the way.

Yeah it isn't going to snow down there in this upcoming pattern lol. Barely any chance up in our area. If they get precip its gonna be rain. The cold airmass is long gone. Good for them tho.. we be droughting.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

12z EPS is at least trying to cool us down from the north for the last few days of February

Unfortunately we need a little bit more of a cold anomaly for snow by then. 

Average highs might be too warm but what is the mean 850 and wet bulb temp?  Again why do you act like we need a cold regime to snow. We have needed that recently but historically we got so many snowstorms in marginal thermal regimes if we get a good storm track. Do you know how many Baltimore snows were 45 the day before and after it snowed. We need those to return. Because cold regimes are often dry!  A big part of our snow climo was from snowstorms in marginal temp regimes not cold ones. One of the reasons we are stuck in the worst snow drought EVER is that for the last 10 years or only snows when it’s cold. We need to get snow when the pattern isn’t perfect or Baltimore is going to continue to average half of what it’s long term 140 year average actually is. 

[ravensrule]

32 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Kind of exhausted tracking the last two weeks; get something showing up inside 5 days and I will  get back on the saddle...

You're retired and we rely on you, you have to have 6 more weeks in you. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

You're retired and we rely on you, you have to have 6 more weeks in you. 

Did you just call him a ground hog?

[Yeoman]

52 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Kind of exhausted tracking the last two weeks; get something showing up inside 5 days and I will  get back on the saddle...

Right mouse button finally fall off?

[cbmclean]

49 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Average highs might be too warm but what is the mean 850 and wet bulb temp?  Again why do you act like we need a cold regime to snow. We have needed that recently but historically we got so many snowstorms in marginal thermal regimes if we get a good storm track. Do you know how many Baltimore snows were 45 the day before and after it snowed. We need those to return. Because cold regimes are often dry!  A big part of our snow climo was from snowstorms in marginal temp regimes not cold ones. One of the reasons we are stuck in the worst snow drought EVER is that for the last 10 years or only snows when it’s cold. We need to get snow when the pattern isn’t perfect or Baltimore is going to continue to average half of what it’s long term 140 year average actually is. 

Do you actually think there is a chance to recover any of that loss?  I fear that ship may have sailed.

[NorthArlington101]

Do you actually think there is a chance to recover any of that loss?  I fear that ship may have sailed.

Any company that invents carbon recapture will be a full port of my portfolio! Til then…

[Stormchaserchuck1]

What we don't want to see in the long range is that -PNA ridge pinching off NW to cutoff over Russia, while a low comes underneath of it in western Canada and Alaska.. could flood US with warm air down the road if it evolves like this. Earlier it was looking like the Pac ridge was wanting to eventually go polar, but this is how models have trended the last few days.. 

Possibly if the MJO were to stay strong, it would support this pattern, going through Phases 3-6