February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO: impressive vortex heading east but I don't know how it is going to be cold enough by the time it gets here unless the track is perfect.  Also noticed no 50-50 low this run which makes it even harder.

 

[clskinsfan]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO: impressive vortex heading east but I don't know how it is going to be cold enough by the time it gets here unless the track is perfect.  Also noticed no 50-50 low this run which makes it even harder.

 

Yeah. That is an ass look. The MJO and most other guidance says we are going to fail. And I think we are as well. Is what it is. 

Most guidance is going for a consolidated PV up north. That is pretty much a death nail for us. It allows the pacific to completely degrade to a point where we cant win. Dont say it often. But if long range guidance IS CORRECT. Winter is over. 

[AlexD1990]

2 hours ago, Paleocene said:

Lol sorry and no harm meant to DE. His incessant mentions of the place drove me a bit nuts. I have friends and relatives there, and since I moved to the DC area as an adult, it's one of my favorite escapes to get out to the shore (and to Milton for DFH). The grey wizard is now on my ignore list.

Thank you! Just don't let one ass color the impression of the whole state lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

This thread got weird.

Chuck said it couldn’t snow this week because the pacific pattern would make it too warm.  The problem we have right now is a combination of guidance trending towards a weaker wave that gets absorbed by the approaching larger scale pacific trough and a more suppressive Atlantic which squashes any weak energy that ejects ahead.
 

If anything it’s the opposite problem of what Chuck was worried about.  If that Atlantic low backed off some and a healthier wave ejects it looks cold enough until Monday. After that it starts getting problematic fast but the window over PD weekend is there IF a strong enough wave ejects and right now it looks like it might not  

Mitch we can’t trust anything bit if you want there to be a shot you want good solutions snowing up within the scope of all the guidance. 
 

Thanks all. 

I didn't make a point whether the storm would happen or not, just that the SE ridge was being underestimated, given the Pacific pattern and the extreme nature of it vs what was happening downstream. Sometimes when a ridge corrects, the northern stream energy will get sheared out and there is no storm, or it's delayed a few days. If the storm date ends up being 40s and sunny, I think that's a win. 

[87storms]

36 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Thanks all. 

I didn't make a point whether the storm would happen or not, just that the SE ridge was being underestimated, given the Pacific pattern and the extreme nature of it vs what was happening downstream. Sometimes when a ridge corrects, the northern stream energy will get sheared out and there is no storm, or it's delayed a few days. If the storm date ends up being 40s and sunny, I think that's a win. 

I either want that or a snowstorm. I’m retired from cold and dry for the season.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

Euro AI is a little bit colder and significantly better

Problem with precip too as the storm abruptly exits stage right. Iow, same problem as all winter north of central VA.

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Problem with precip too as the storm abruptly exits stage right. Iow, same problem as all winter north of central VA.

Do you think the Euro OP would of started as snow?  

It's about 6 to 12 hours quicker compared to 12z which may of helped. 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Do you think the Euro OP would of started as snow?  

It's about 6 to 12 hours quicker compared to 12z which may of helped. 

In general… the quicker we can get the storm here the better, in this situation. 

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

In general… the quicker we can get the storm here the better, in this situation. 

Definitely threading the needle. It would need a perfect track to have a portion of the storm as snow. Imo

[Terpeast]

Just now, Chris78 said:

Definitely threading the needle. It would need a perfect track to have a portion of the storm as snow. Imo

Very fragile setup, yes

[Stormchaserchuck1]

If anyone is curious, 2 colder than average Winters in the Northeast (DJF 24-25 and 25-26) followed by an El Nino is actually a common occurrence.. It has happened 10 times since 1950. Here's the temp composite for the following El Nino Winter (theory for 26-27): 

I was actually a little surprised that it didn't skew a little cooler. Precip is also surprisingly a little below average in the Mid-Atlantic, with only 10 examples hard to say if that's a coincidence or the pattern continued forward.  

[Ephesians2]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

If anyone is curious, 2 colder than average Winters in the Northeast (DJF 24-25 and 25-26) followed by an El Nino is actually a common occurrence.. It has happened 10 times since 1950. Here's the composite for the following El Nino Winter (theory for 26-27): 

I was actually a little surprised that it didn't skew a little cooler. Precip is also surprisingly below average in the Mid-Atlantic, with only 10 examples hard to say if that's a coincidence or the pattern. 

With such a small sample size I doubt there's much of a relationship here. Does the first image look much different from a Nino composite?

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

If anyone is curious, 2 colder than average Winters in the Northeast (DJF 24-25 and 25-26) followed by an El Nino is actually a common occurrence.. It has happened 10 times. Here's the composite for the following El Nino Winter (theory for 26-27): 

Last time that happened it was in the 70s on Christmas eve and iced coffee was being sold in NYC for most of that month. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

With such a small sample size I doubt there's much of a relationship here. Does the first image look much different from a Nino composite?

It looks almost exactly like the classic El Nino composite. I have, throughout this Winter though often had the thought that 2 colder Winters followed by an El Nino might mean that El Nino next year goes colder, but the climate data says about average. 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It looks almost exactly like the classic El Nino composite. I have, throughout this Winter though often had the thought that 2 colder Winters followed by an El Nino might mean that El Nino next year goes colder, but the climate data says about average. 

The temperature part doesn’t surprise me, but the below average precip does 

[Blizzard of 93]

18z AI EPS looks solid with a good clustering of low tracks jumping to the coast.

[Maestrobjwa]

Incredible!

https://twitter.com/i/status/2020634562402070870

[Weather Will]

NWS forecast for Sunday shows the uncertainty in the forecast but I don't know how they can word it this way.  It's worthless.

Sunday

A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

[Blizzard of 93]

12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

18z AI EPS looks solid with a good clustering of low tracks jumping to the coast.

More from the 18z AI EPS

[Blizzard of 93]

18z AI EPS snow map 

[clskinsfan]

30 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It looks almost exactly like the classic El Nino composite. I have, throughout this Winter though often had the thought that 2 colder Winters followed by an El Nino might mean that El Nino next year goes colder, but the climate data says about average. 

Those maps say average to slightly above. I will take my chances with that and plenty of precip. Everyone freaks when a plot says 2 degrees above normal. In February that doesnt matter. The problem has been the lack of precip. Give me moist. I will take my chances then. 

[Chris78]

12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

18z AI EPS looks solid with a good clustering of low tracks jumping to the coast.

If precip makes it far enough north you guys should be in good shape up there.

We're gonna need a perfect track down here and it might still not be enough. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Thanks all. 

I didn't make a point whether the storm would happen or not, just that the SE ridge was being underestimated, given the Pacific pattern and the extreme nature of it vs what was happening downstream. Sometimes when a ridge corrects, the northern stream energy will get sheared out and there is no storm, or it's delayed a few days. If the storm date ends up being 40s and sunny, I think that's a win. 

No no no.  Nice try but you don’t get to own every permutation of fail. Of course it’s probably going to fail, almost all our threats fail because it’s hard to get a snowstorm here. Way more had to go right than wrong. 
 

You can’t say the problem is it’s going to be too warm then claim a win if the storm gets suppressed lol 

You might still win with the too warm idea anyways. Frankly every one of these Hudson high threats the last 10 years has ended up too warm. This look used to work. We’ve had so many awesome wet snow paste bombs in this type of pattern. But they’ve gone extinct and every recent example ended up rain. 
 

Does this work anymore?  Because some of our best snows were in this comp but lately it’s been too warm for this setup to work  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Much, much different Pacific. Just consider that medium range models don't fully factor in the downstream pattern of PNA. I've seen too many times over the years. This was an easy one, +450dm N. Pacific ridge. Your composite doesn't have a +450dm N. Pacific ridge lol. I don't really care about what happens with the storm - whether it's here or there, but it probably will be in the 40s that day because that's the longwave pattern, starting much earlier. 

[psuhoffman]

53 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

If anyone is curious, 2 colder than average Winters in the Northeast (DJF 24-25 and 25-26) followed by an El Nino is actually a common occurrence.. It has happened 10 times since 1950. Here's the temp composite for the following El Nino Winter (theory for 26-27): 

I was actually a little surprised that it didn't skew a little cooler. Precip is also surprisingly a little below average in the Mid-Atlantic, with only 10 examples hard to say if that's a coincidence or the pattern continued forward.  

Problem with that comp is there is no consistency. It includes some of our snowiest El Niños and some of the least snowy. The mean is just an average of radically different years. I don’t see a pattern that’s useful there.  Could be 1964 or 1995 lol. Actually I think on the whole snowfall would be above avg in the subset 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Problem with that comp is there is no consistency. It includes some of our snowiest El Niños and some of the least snowy. The mean is just an average of radically different years. I don’t see a pattern that’s useful there.  Could be 1964 or 1995 lol. Actually I think on the whole snowfall would be above avg in the subset 

Yeah, it's more about disqualifying a theory than proving something new. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^Much, much different Pacific. Just consider that medium range models don't fully factor in the downstream pattern of PNA. I've seen too many times over the years. This was an easy one, +450dm N. Pacific ridge. Your composite doesn't have a +450dm N. Pacific ridge lol. I don't really care about what happens with the storm - whether it's here or there, but it probably will be in the 40s that day because that's the longwave pattern, starting much earlier. 

It’s not that different. I’m the comp the ridge is more in the wpo area but the downstream trough is very similar and that’s what’s more important. That north pac ridge has just gone up and hasn’t yet caused the deep -pna that will eventually wreck our pattern. I do think we see a warmer period than guidance is showing AFTER PD weekend. But you’re acting like that ridge goes up and immediately eastern US torches.  First it needs to cause the PNA reaction then a couple days later we torch. There is a window first. We don’t have any arctic air to work with though it’s a split flow with marginal air so that’s the issue. The pacific hasn’t had time to impact us YET there. It will soon after. Then for how long before we recover becomes the next question and I agree with you probably by the very end of Feb. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Make a composite of +450dm N. Pacific ridge days south of the Aleutians now-time in Feb, and tell me what heights in the Mid Atlantic and SE look like. I'll give you hint, they are warmer than average. The Pac pattern change is happening in the next few days with Polar Vortex temporarily setting up over Alaska. Then it transitions to southern High pressure.. but the whole pattern -PNA/+EPO is setting up early enough to skew that storm warm, and I think by a good margin.