February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO: impressive vortex heading east but I don't know how it is going to be cold enough by the time it gets here unless the track is perfect.  Also noticed no 50-50 low this run which makes it even harder.

 

[clskinsfan]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO: impressive vortex heading east but I don't know how it is going to be cold enough by the time it gets here unless the track is perfect.  Also noticed no 50-50 low this run which makes it even harder.

 

Yeah. That is an ass look. The MJO and most other guidance says we are going to fail. And I think we are as well. Is what it is. 

Most guidance is going for a consolidated PV up north. That is pretty much a death nail for us. It allows the pacific to completely degrade to a point where we cant win. Dont say it often. But if long range guidance IS CORRECT. Winter is over. 

[AlexD1990]

2 hours ago, Paleocene said:

Lol sorry and no harm meant to DE. His incessant mentions of the place drove me a bit nuts. I have friends and relatives there, and since I moved to the DC area as an adult, it's one of my favorite escapes to get out to the shore (and to Milton for DFH). The grey wizard is now on my ignore list.

Thank you! Just don't let one ass color the impression of the whole state lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

This thread got weird.

Chuck said it couldn’t snow this week because the pacific pattern would make it too warm.  The problem we have right now is a combination of guidance trending towards a weaker wave that gets absorbed by the approaching larger scale pacific trough and a more suppressive Atlantic which squashes any weak energy that ejects ahead.
 

If anything it’s the opposite problem of what Chuck was worried about.  If that Atlantic low backed off some and a healthier wave ejects it looks cold enough until Monday. After that it starts getting problematic fast but the window over PD weekend is there IF a strong enough wave ejects and right now it looks like it might not  

Mitch we can’t trust anything bit if you want there to be a shot you want good solutions snowing up within the scope of all the guidance. 
 

Thanks all. 

I didn't make a point whether the storm would happen or not, just that the SE ridge was being underestimated, given the Pacific pattern and the extreme nature of it vs what was happening downstream. Sometimes when a ridge corrects, the northern stream energy will get sheared out and there is no storm, or it's delayed a few days. If the storm date ends up being 40s and sunny, I think that's a win. 

[87storms]

36 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Thanks all. 

I didn't make a point whether the storm would happen or not, just that the SE ridge was being underestimated, given the Pacific pattern and the extreme nature of it vs what was happening downstream. Sometimes when a ridge corrects, the northern stream energy will get sheared out and there is no storm, or it's delayed a few days. If the storm date ends up being 40s and sunny, I think that's a win. 

I either want that or a snowstorm. I’m retired from cold and dry for the season.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

Euro AI is a little bit colder and significantly better

Problem with precip too as the storm abruptly exits stage right. Iow, same problem as all winter north of central VA.

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Problem with precip too as the storm abruptly exits stage right. Iow, same problem as all winter north of central VA.

Do you think the Euro OP would of started as snow?  

It's about 6 to 12 hours quicker compared to 12z which may of helped. 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Do you think the Euro OP would of started as snow?  

It's about 6 to 12 hours quicker compared to 12z which may of helped. 

In general… the quicker we can get the storm here the better, in this situation. 

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

In general… the quicker we can get the storm here the better, in this situation. 

Definitely threading the needle. It would need a perfect track to have a portion of the storm as snow. Imo

[Terpeast]

Just now, Chris78 said:

Definitely threading the needle. It would need a perfect track to have a portion of the storm as snow. Imo

Very fragile setup, yes

[Stormchaserchuck1]

If anyone is curious, 2 colder than average Winters in the Northeast (DJF 24-25 and 25-26) followed by an El Nino is actually a common occurrence.. It has happened 10 times since 1950. Here's the temp composite for the following El Nino Winter (theory for 26-27): 

I was actually a little surprised that it didn't skew a little cooler. Precip is also surprisingly a little below average in the Mid-Atlantic, with only 10 examples hard to say if that's a coincidence or the pattern continued forward.  

[Ephesians2]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

If anyone is curious, 2 colder than average Winters in the Northeast (DJF 24-25 and 25-26) followed by an El Nino is actually a common occurrence.. It has happened 10 times since 1950. Here's the composite for the following El Nino Winter (theory for 26-27): 

I was actually a little surprised that it didn't skew a little cooler. Precip is also surprisingly below average in the Mid-Atlantic, with only 10 examples hard to say if that's a coincidence or the pattern. 

With such a small sample size I doubt there's much of a relationship here. Does the first image look much different from a Nino composite?

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

If anyone is curious, 2 colder than average Winters in the Northeast (DJF 24-25 and 25-26) followed by an El Nino is actually a common occurrence.. It has happened 10 times. Here's the composite for the following El Nino Winter (theory for 26-27): 

Last time that happened it was in the 70s on Christmas eve and iced coffee was being sold in NYC for most of that month. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

With such a small sample size I doubt there's much of a relationship here. Does the first image look much different from a Nino composite?

It looks almost exactly like the classic El Nino composite. I have, throughout this Winter though often had the thought that 2 colder Winters followed by an El Nino might mean that El Nino next year goes colder, but the climate data says about average.