February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[winter_warlock]

200 hours out that will change  a few times

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

200 hours out that will change  a few times

Nah it’s locked in probably grey hat says rain 

[NorthArlington101]

EPS

 

00z

[winter_warlock]

 I think Grey hat wants rain as much as he says it's going to rain lol

[winter_warlock]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

EPS

 

00z

That's a nice shift se

[stormtracker]

13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

AIFS ens are close… 

Close enough.  Welcome Back Blizzard of 96

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Nah it’s locked in probably grey hat says rain 

QPF is light

[WxUSAF]

In totality I think the 12z suite is a win

[NorthArlington101]

You have to view these only in the sense of mean total QPF that is borderline wintry, but… 

[mitchnick]

One thing is for sure, both Gfs and Euro ops wanna' bring back the cold before the end of their runs.

[Ji]

You have to view these only in the sense of mean total QPF that is borderline wintry, but… 

Seems like the Ai has a weird blip at 00z and 6z

[AdamHLG]

52 minutes ago, 87storms said:

That was a flush hit of 6 hrs of snow followed by 10 hrs of sleet. If that ends up being our flagship storm in a winter that was generally cold from start to finish, then I want my money back lol. I don’t think we’re done, though…not as long as we keep getting these outrageous cold shots.

In Central / Northern Baltimore County that was 10-12" and then a sleet bomb and then (and still currently) a cold spell for the ages.  The most snow since 2016 - it's been 10 years.  Many schools closed for about a week.  Major impact storm.  If this is all we get all winter I will take it in a heartbeat.  Hopefully we are not done, but imagine the mood around here if we didn't even get that?     

[Weather Will]

We really need to appreciate that the EURO is really just catching on....compare WB EPS low  positions at 12Z compared to 0Z.

[Weather Will]

WB EPS snow prob. Greatly increased between 6Z and 12Z.  Blip or new trend TBD.  To illustrate, see 6 inch prob.  at 12Z compared to 6Z.

[stormy]

The EURO loves freezing rain as usual.  The GEM is nutty as a fruit cake with UL Thermals.  The GFS looks reasonable with track, thermals surface and aloft.

My 7 model blend has increased from 2.2" at 7 am to 5.5" at 2 pm.

[Solution Man]

12z suite has gotten Top hat off his game

[Terpeast]

Seeing the EPS mean is reassuring. The op runs can be expected to windshield wiper around the ensemble means, as they trend closer to the final solution, which we will have a better idea by Wednesday 

Upon closer inspection, EPS (and AI EPS) has reversed its weakening trend and re-strengthens the s/w on approach. Hudson bay high and confluence also stronger, better cold air mass.

New run:

Old run:

[Ji]

Seeing the EPS mean is reassuring. The op runs can be expected to windshield wiper around the ensemble means, as they trend closer to the final solution, which we will have a better idea by Wednesday 

Upon closer inspection, EPS (and AI EPS) has reversed its weakening trend and re-strengthens the s/w on approach. Hudson bay high and confluence also stronger, better cold air mass.

New run:

Old run:

Remarkable turnaround

[Solution Man]

29 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Seeing the EPS mean is reassuring. The op runs can be expected to windshield wiper around the ensemble means, as they trend closer to the final solution, which we will have a better idea by Wednesday 

Upon closer inspection, EPS (and AI EPS) has reversed its weakening trend and re-strengthens the s/w on approach. Hudson bay high and confluence also stronger, better cold air mass.

New run:

Old run:

The new run gives our region at least a low moderate chance of a WSW event. Got a chance!