February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[CAPE]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

I wonder how much the early SSW/reversal played in this winter having a consistently favorable(ish) Pacific. This doesn't seem to be the normal La Nina here, where it's cool for a few weeks before we torch.

I don't pay much attention to that stuff. Mostly Voodoo. Its a weak Nina that's getting weaker. To me that makes the patterns/sensible weather more of a wildcard.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

By the way, check out the ENSO subsurface. Torching

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

By the way, check out the ENSO subsurface. Torching

BASIN WIDE SUPER EL NINO HERE WE COME.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I wonder how much the early SSW/reversal played in this winter having a consistently favorable(ish) Pacific. This doesn't seem to be the normal La Nina here, where it's cool for a few weeks before we torch.

@GaWx Did a research earlier this season and found that a Nov SSW had a significantly high correlation with cold December and January. I found in my research that a Nov SSW had ~+35-40 day lag with the -AO/NAO, and that worked out this year, but the correlation numbers weren't so high on the Pacific pattern. Gawx also found that -ENSO/-PNA Decembers led +PNA January's 10/10 times! donsoutherland did an independent research and found the same thing. It worked out this year time 11/11. Why? I don't really know. The opposite side +ENSO/+PNA Decembers leading -PNA January's doesn't work out the same. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

@GaWx Did a research earlier this season and found that a Nov SSW had a significantly high correlation with cold December and January. I found in my research that a Nov SSW had ~+35-40 day lag with the -AO/NAO, and that worked out, but the correlation numbers weren't so high on the Pacific pattern. Gawx also found that -ENSO/-PNA Decembers led +PNA January's 10/10 times! donsoutherland did an independent research and found the same thing. It worked out this year time 11/11. Why? I don't really know. The opposite side +ENSO/+PNA Decembers leading -PNA January's doesn't work out the same. 

Interesting. How many occurrences were there?

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

BASIN WIDE SUPER EL NINO HERE WE COME.

I'll take my chances with that after this past 7 year clownshow. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Interesting. How many occurrences were there?

SSW November's? I don't know. Maybe 10? On my old computer I plotted all 10mb events since 1948, but I don't have that data anymore, just memory of what the end result showed. 10mb warmings are lagged to AO, and 10mb coolings happen with AO in now-time (0-day)

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

BASIN WIDE SUPER EL NINO HERE WE COME.

We still have another couple weeks of Niña trade winds to fook any chances of getting Niño benefits. That's just the way it works around here unfortunately. 

[stormtracker]

You guys will be shocked to know that the 18z GFS h5 map is vastly different out west.   But looks like that s/w is headed for shredderola

[mitchnick]

GfsAI has a storm for next Sunday. Looks snow to rain, then back to snow as low travels through N VA.

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You guys will be shocked to know that the 18z GFS h5 map is vastly different out west.   But looks like that s/w is headed for shredderola

You mean it changed, 152K

[Chris78]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You guys will be shocked to know that the 18z GFS h5 map is vastly different out west.   But looks like that s/w is headed for shredderola

I don't know. Looks like the SW is coming out instead of getting stuck but that doesn't mean it will be a good result lol.

Also do I email my W2s to you? 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

You mean it changed, 152K

Could be north of that

[stormtracker]

ULL up over Maine just cut that s/w down to almost nothing at the Surface.   Goofy Fucking System model.

[Amped]

Shitty ridge over Texas gives nothing any chance.

[JenkinsJinkies]

I said a month ago about how it can torch all it wants in April. Well if the metros can get enough snow this month to surpass climo then I can accept a March torch. It’ll have earned it in that scenario.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

ULL up over Maine just cut that s/w down to almost nothing at the Surface.   Goofy Fucking System model.

Its probably wrong, but running up the ass end of that northern vorticity isnt gonna work. Need more spacing.

[Weather Junkie]

31 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Its probably wrong, but running up the ass end of that northern vorticity isnt gonna work. Need more spacing.

I think this better belongs in an “after hours” forum

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Is this a pattern where we can pull off a February 1983 type storm?

Anytime we have blocking in February it’s possible. It’s true most HECS storms are in ninos but not all. Jan 96, Jan 2000 and Feb 2006 were all a Nina. And March 2018 was borderline HECS up here and that was a Nina.  

[psuhoffman]

@Jersey Andrew but… I should add that 83 storm was a classic Nino STJ moisture bomb storm like Feb 2010 and Jan 2016. If we do get a MECS HECS storm it’s unlikely to have that level of STJ moisture feed. Even 96 didn’t. It had to snow for 36 hours to get those crazy totals in 1996. Our absolute top end is probably capped a little by the Nina. But we can definitely get VERY big snowstorms in a Nina. 

[Jersey Andrew]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Jersey Andrew but… I should add that 83 storm was a classic Nino STJ moisture bomb storm like Feb 2010 and Jan 2016. If we do get a MECS HECS storm it’s unlikely to have that level of STJ moisture feed. Even 96 didn’t. It had to snow for 36 hours to get those crazy totals in 1996. Our absolute top end is probably capped a little by the Nina. But we can definitely get VERY big snowstorms in a Nina. 

Maybe next year if Super Nino develops we can see a 1983 or 2016 type storm.

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

BASIN WIDE SUPER EL NINO HERE WE COME.

i hope that's true. We need about 900 inches of rain in Texas.

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

As I posted this morning, the potential for a storm after the storm, around the 20th, is looking pretty interesting.

 

I'm a gonna be greedy...I want BOTH

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I'm a gonna be greedy...I want BOTH

Sure, but you are up on a mountain lol. Both of these 'threats' look to have marginal cold to work with, so a lot has to go right, esp for the lowlands.

[Chris78]

Euro AI still likes next weekend. Looks like a 3 to 5" type deal.

Atleast for our area, all of this is from next weekend except for like 1/2 inch or less.

 

[CAPE]

For those looking at the snow mean for next weekend on the 18z GEFS, it is skewed by a handful of members, with one being a monster that all would love lol. Signal is there though.

[Chris78]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

For those looking at the snow mean for next weekend on the 18z GEFS, it is skewed by a handful of members, with one being a monster that all would love lol. Signal is there though.

For all the duds is it too warm or just no storm at all?

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

For all the duds is it too warm or just no storm at all?

A mix. Some focus more on the 12th. A lot have nothing, some rain, a few snow south. Plenty of spread as expected at this range.

[psuhoffman]

@Stormchaserchuck1 the last 10 years a hostile EPO/PNA is a killer and been game over but historically that’s not always been true.  We’ve had plenty of snowstorms without an EPO PNA ridge. But it depends on several things. 
1) the antecedent thermal profile across N America. If the continent is torched it won’t work. 
2) AO/NAO without blocking up top and a favorable Atlantic pattern it’s game over. 
3) the depth of any PNA trough.  Factors 1&2 can overcome a -1 PNA. If the PNA ends up -3.5 it’s probably game over. 
 

So I’m not saying you’re wrong but it’s not as simple as “we lots the EPO PNA game over”.  If those 3 factors go our way we can still snow. But the last 10 Years everytime the pna went wrong everything else went wrong too. And if we did have some blocking help the PNA went some crazy -4 or something which is impossible to overcome, especially earlier in the season which some of those cases were. 
 

So curious…do you see wings the PNA is going so hostile, or that those other factors will also ne unfavorable…or are you ignoring everything else and just looking at the PNA. Because while the PNA has been a great single indicator recently it’s not always been that way and hopefully doesn’t continue to be because some of our best snowstorms came with a -PNA

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 the last 10 years a hostile EPO/PNA is a killer and been game over but historically that’s not always been true.  We’ve had plenty of snowstorms without an EPO PNA ridge. But it depends on several things. 
1) the antecedent thermal profile across N America. If the continent is torched it won’t work. 
2) AO/NAO without blocking up top and a favorable Atlantic pattern it’s game over. 
3) the depth of any PNA trough.  Factors 1&2 can overcome a -1 PNA. If the PNA ends up -3.5 it’s probably game over. 
 

So I’m not saying you’re wrong but it’s not as simple as “we lots the EPO PNA game over”.  If those 3 factors go our way we can still snow. But the last 10 Years everytime the pna went wrong everything else went wrong too. And if we did have some blocking help the PNA went some crazy -4 or something which is impossible to overcome, especially earlier in the season which some of those cases were. 
 

So curious…do you see wings the PNA is going so hostile, or that those other factors will also ne unfavorable…or are you ignoring everything else and just looking at the PNA. Because while the PNA has been a great single indicator recently it’s not always been that way and hopefully doesn’t continue to be because some of our best snowstorms came with a -PNA

I'm really seeing how extreme it looks on models. The last few days I was thinking the seasonal pattern of -AO may be enough to overcome it, or help the ridge go poleward hooking up, eventually, but today's models really went south. The classic measurements aren't going to have super low readings, but the 12z EPS has +400dm on the mean, with a trough over top of it in Alaska. What happens in Alaska and NW Canada has a lot to do with what happens with the PNA downstream too. Since 1998, we have been in this pattern of more troughing over AK/NW Canada vs the 1960s. NAO ridging isn't strong enough to cancel out that strong Pacific pattern, once the pattern change happens quickly in 4-5 days.