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February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post


Weather Will
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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

I wonder how much the early SSW/reversal played in this winter having a consistently favorable(ish) Pacific. This doesn't seem to be the normal La Nina here, where it's cool for a few weeks before we torch.

I don't pay much attention to that stuff. Mostly Voodoo. Its a weak Nina that's getting weaker. To me that makes the patterns/sensible weather more of a wildcard.

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12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I wonder how much the early SSW/reversal played in this winter having a consistently favorable(ish) Pacific. This doesn't seem to be the normal La Nina here, where it's cool for a few weeks before we torch.

@GaWx Did a research earlier this season and found that a Nov SSW had a significantly high correlation with cold December and January. I found in my research that a Nov SSW had ~+35-40 day lag with the -AO/NAO, and that worked out this year, but the correlation numbers weren't so high on the Pacific pattern. Gawx also found that -ENSO/-PNA Decembers led +PNA January's 10/10 times! donsoutherland did an independent research and found the same thing. It worked out this year time 11/11. Why? I don't really know. The opposite side +ENSO/+PNA Decembers leading -PNA January's doesn't work out the same. 

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Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

@GaWx Did a research earlier this season and found that a Nov SSW had a significantly high correlation with cold December and January. I found in my research that a Nov SSW had ~+35-40 day lag with the -AO/NAO, and that worked out, but the correlation numbers weren't so high on the Pacific pattern. Gawx also found that -ENSO/-PNA Decembers led +PNA January's 10/10 times! donsoutherland did an independent research and found the same thing. It worked out this year time 11/11. Why? I don't really know. The opposite side +ENSO/+PNA Decembers leading -PNA January's doesn't work out the same. 

Interesting. How many occurrences were there?

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Interesting. How many occurrences were there?

SSW November's? I don't know. Maybe 10? On my old computer I plotted all 10mb events since 1948, but I don't have that data anymore, just memory of what the end result showed. 10mb warmings are lagged to AO, and 10mb coolings happen with AO in now-time (0-day)

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7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You guys will be shocked to know that the 18z GFS h5 map is vastly different out west.   But looks like that s/w is headed for shredderola

I don't know. Looks like the SW is coming out instead of getting stuck but that doesn't mean it will be a good result lol.

Also do I email my W2s to you? :lol:

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

ULL up over Maine just cut that s/w down to almost nothing at the Surface.   Goofy Fucking System model.

Its probably wrong, but running up the ass end of that northern vorticity isnt gonna work. Need more spacing.

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3 hours ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Is this a pattern where we can pull off a February 1983 type storm?

Anytime we have blocking in February it’s possible. It’s true most HECS storms are in ninos but not all. Jan 96, Jan 2000 and Feb 2006 were all a Nina. And March 2018 was borderline HECS up here and that was a Nina.  

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@Jersey Andrew but… I should add that 83 storm was a classic Nino STJ moisture bomb storm like Feb 2010 and Jan 2016. If we do get a MECS HECS storm it’s unlikely to have that level of STJ moisture feed. Even 96 didn’t. It had to snow for 36 hours to get those crazy totals in 1996. Our absolute top end is probably capped a little by the Nina. But we can definitely get VERY big snowstorms in a Nina. 

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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Jersey Andrew but… I should add that 83 storm was a classic Nino STJ moisture bomb storm like Feb 2010 and Jan 2016. If we do get a MECS HECS storm it’s unlikely to have that level of STJ moisture feed. Even 96 didn’t. It had to snow for 36 hours to get those crazy totals in 1996. Our absolute top end is probably capped a little by the Nina. But we can definitely get VERY big snowstorms in a Nina. 

Maybe next year if Super Nino develops we can see a 1983 or 2016 type storm.

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6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

For those looking at the snow mean for next weekend on the 18z GEFS, it is skewed by a handful of members, with one being a monster that all would love lol. Signal is there though.

For all the duds is it too warm or just no storm at all?

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