January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage OBS Thread!

[Cobalt]

Absolutely gargantuan snowflakes right now. Was gonna take a nap until 5am but this is compelling me, especially with that sleet line to the Southeast. A flip to sleet would be hours early, and I'm hoping this increase in flake size isn't signaling that outcome. For now, SN/SN+. 

[insanegrenade]

Omg we were walking with our dog and heard thunder snow yall! Did anyone else see /hear it ?!?


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[caviman2201]

At this point, a debacle would be low key hilarious.   I'm up regardless. Me and the bf lit af.  He thinks we are all weirdos and laughs at me talking about dendrites, rates and models.   He just went out on the covered patio to smoke and shaking his head.

He's not wrong... We're all a little insane to care this much. My wife thinks the same

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[ErinInTheSky]

The good news is the sleet line has a very solid thump or two of snow ahead of it.

 

[balltermen]

the sleet line has moved about 10 miles in the last 30 minutes.  nobody in immediate DC metro is at any risk of sleet any time soon. 

[balltermen]

Rap flips at 16z which would be hilarious.  HRRR still 14z. Correlation coefficient apparently says 8z.  

[TSG]

The yellows flipped us quickly down here. Pouring sleet at 12 degrees 

[clskinsfan]

Bro I want to sleep but I can't. The dendrites are just pouring., the landscape has changed and man i love snow. 

[Skidude]

15/7  1"  moderate snow very dry and crunchy

[Maestrobjwa]

Snow in the teens...wow. Kinda rare stuff around here! Let's just enjoy this, shall we? 

[balltermen]

new 3k NAM.  DCA at 13z.  go enjoy yourselves. don't stare at precip type  

 

[clskinsfan]

I lam getting absolutely pummeled right now. Unreal. 

[Cobalt]

SN+ at 10 degrees, probably a once-in-a-decade type obs combination around here. Huge huge flakes.

[caviman2201]

Very small flakes here by BWI 

[jayyy]

Intensity is definitely picking up
14 degrees

[Cobalt]

27 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Absolutely gargantuan snowflakes right now. Was gonna take a nap until 5am but this is compelling me, especially with that sleet line to the Southeast. A flip to sleet would be hours early, and I'm hoping this increase in flake size isn't signaling that outcome. For now, SN/SN+. 

Suspicions were right, hearing sleet mix in now. 

[Jebman]

16 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Bro I want to sleep but I can't. The dendrites are just pouring., the landscape has changed and man i love snow. 

I know that feelin! Many times in the old days when I was younger and living in N VA, I'd stay up all damn night and all the next day to watch the snow! I LOVED SNOW and I loved diggin it too! I'd blast the livin heck out of ELO as well! Especially in the Incredible winter of 2009-2010!! I got notes from those days!

[Ji]

Heavy snow now. This is the time

[Ji]

Suspicions were right, hearing sleet mix in now. 

Where are you?

[Cobalt]

Just now, Ji said:

Where are you?

Harrisonburg

[NorthArlington101]

Only at like 0.6” off my balcony. Admittedly not a super amazing place to measure. Kinda doubt DC is gonna make it past 4” snow.

[RevWarReenactor]

Its a bit scary that Harrisonburg has already flipped and its 3am.

[LP08]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Only at like 0.6” off my balcony. Admittedly not a super amazing place to measure. Kinda doubt DC is gonna make it past 4” snow.

Yeah.  I’m at 1”.  The culpepper stuff looks fun but sleet won’t be far behind. Sitting in subsidence is always fun during the “prime hours”

[NorthArlington101]

Yeah.  I’m at 1”.  The culpepper stuff looks fun but sleet won’t be far behind. Sitting in subsidence is always fun during the “prime hours”

I guess even the 3k at this point tries to crush us between 5-8am. Need to hold the line. Dunno what’s feasible.

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Its a bit scary that Harrisonburg has already flipped and its 3am.

I'm not trying to deb at all, but my experience over the years is thst the flip always happens way earlier than expected. I do remember a few bust the positive way to, but less lol. My bar is my grass being covered for the cold spell. I'm half way there. I was going to do a hike early this morning but I don't feel like getting caught out there in sleet. I'll wait until later for that. 

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Its a bit scary that Harrisonburg has already flipped and its 3am.

IIRC most of the mesos had me flipping 1-2 hours before DC did. Perhaps the sleet line is going to halt after this quick advance but TBD. This does open up a shot at a ridiculous sleet storm, as the HRRR suggests 1.2" QPF is to fall from this point onwards. If a majority of that is sleet.. woof. 

[Jebman]

Getting a lot of big heavy sleet is just like having a hot sister.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Jebman said:

Getting a lot of big heavy sleet is just like having a hot sister.

You care to elaborate? 16 here with moderate snow, small flakes. 1/2” or so 

[Disc]

Can confirm I have a ridiculous amount of sleet. I am hoping the 3k is correct instead of the HRRR. The 3k keeps me as sleet through this afternoon, HRRR goes to freezing rain here by sunrise. One of those scenarios will be very bad. Temp still falling... down a couple ticks to 7.2F

[Ji]