Southern Crippler - Get well soon Jimbo Storm Obs

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[ADB83]

Burst of heavy sleet in Walkertown. Probably about 1.25 to 1 1/2 inches just at glance. We’ve warmed up to a sultry 16°.

[gman]

32 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

So was this was a bust or a win? 

For those that did not want an ice storm, a bust is a win. Praying the rest of the day is a bust. 

[Spidyr2k]

https://www.readync.gov/stay-informed/power-outages

It's a moving target.

[USCG RS]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Not true. Regardless there are only 12,000 customers without power. That’s not all all weather related either. 

My overarching point was that most  persons (ie public) look at customers out not outages. Now... The number out is a low number, but if we stay that way after this line gets through, it will be great. 

But... We have a long way to go. 

[letitsnow]

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Duke Energy brought in 18,000 workers for storm response and there are 342 total outages in the Carolina’s. Judge this event as you wish, just reporting the numbers 

Sawnee down here (my co-op) brought in a lot of extra's too; hopefully they won't need them when this last batch comes through. 

As many have said, CAD was much stronger, there was no sleet down here on any of the models until the very last minute, and that was the HRRR but only about an hour or two before it happened.

That CAD saved a whole lot of us, so far, now it might actually hurt us.

Huge credit to the power companies for being prepared, now we need to hope and pray they don't need those workers with the last batch coming through.

[olafminesaw]

12z vs 18z soundings, slightly shallower, but holding strong

[sakau2007]

i think atlanta metro area is going to barely escape an ice storm disaster. temps seem to be around 31-34 degrees so when the heaviest rain falls over the next few hours, it will be marginal at worst.

once you head NE of town through Gwinnett county towards Buford, though, temps are in the upper 20s and they could have big problems. Definitely going to be a disastrous ice storm in places like Gainesville, Toccoa, Lake Lanier and upstate SC.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, sakau2007 said:

i think atlanta metro area is going to barely escape an ice storm disaster. temps seem to be around 31-34 degrees so when the heaviest rain falls over the next few hours, it will be marginal at worst.

once you head NE of town through Gwinnett county towards Buford, though, temps are in the upper 20s and they could have big problems. Definitely going to be a disastrous ice storm in places like Gainesville, Toccoa, Lake Lanier and upstate SC.

I think NE GA ends up as worst ice from the event (NE of ATL)

[tarheelwx]

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Guidance implies that line really skinnies up by the time it reaches Central NC regardless of precip type


.

Spot on - skinnier line, “warmer” temps, heavy rates will likely minimize the impact east of the mountains.  I’ve lived in the CAD zone 59 years and have never seen a trailing line like this deliver heavy accrual.  This could certainly be the first, but my experience points to much less impact than many are assuming.  
TW

[ADB83]

It’s been said already, but the cold air is so cold at the surface that it wreaked havoc on forecasts. I wouldn’t be surprised if Winston-Salem gets some of the squall line as some pouring sleet

[sakau2007]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I think NE GA ends up as worst ice from the event (NE of ATL)

maybe, but i think parts of northern MS got it worse. temps there were around 20 degrees when the heaviest precip was falling whereas many places in NE GA will be closer to 30. Still problematic, but not as bad imo.

[kvegas-wx]

July rainstorm quality sleet here in the Triad.  My goodness!!

[tarheelwx]

3 minutes ago, sakau2007 said:

i think atlanta metro area is going to barely escape an ice storm disaster. temps seem to be around 31-34 degrees so when the heaviest rain falls over the next few hours, it will be marginal at worst.

once you head NE of town through Gwinnett county towards Buford, though, temps are in the upper 20s and they could have big problems. Definitely going to be a disastrous ice storm in places like Gainesville, Toccoa, Lake Lanier and upstate SC.

I think you’ll see those moderating temps continue to spread out.  Difficult for those heavy rates to freeze on impact - warmer droplets, heavier rates, and warmer surface temps.   Just saying. 
TW

[NEGA_Dawg]

Just now, ADB83 said:

It’s been said already, but the cold air is so cold at the surface that it wreaked havoc on forecasts. I wouldn’t be surprised if Winston-Salem gets some of the squall line as some pouring sleet

Thats what i am hoping for in NE Georgia. We are holding steady at 25 degrees. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Anyone who thinks this last batch will create an ice storm in areas that have minimal accrual to this point will be wrong. If your area has a decent amount of ice to this point yes it could worsen the impacts. But it’s not going to cause an ice storm in areas without ice. The storm is over from a pure ice storm stance in all areas that didn’t accumulate ice to this point. Heavy line type precip will 1) not accumulate well and 2) not last long enough to cause an ice storm in 3-4 hours. Just not how ice buildup works

[JSB99]

29.5 with the line starting to move through. A few stronger gusts coming through occasionally

[KyleEverett]

Why are you actively disagreeing with the SPC on this matter?

[sakau2007]

1 minute ago, tarheelwx said:

I think you’ll see those moderating temps continue to spread out.  Difficult for those heavy rates to freeze on impact - warmer droplets, heavier rates, and warmer surface temps.   Just saying. 
TW

i mostly agree, but where it's 25-27 degrees, even a little moderation is going to cause a lot of problems... especially as it has been well below freezing there for hours, so the infrastructure is already cold. but the ATL metro should escape because they are already hovering right at freezing and have been considerably warmer over the last 12-24 hours.

[olafminesaw]

4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

July rainstorm quality sleet here in the Triad.  My goodness!!

Just missed the heavier returns. An appetizer for this evening I hope

[WinstonSalemArlington]

8 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

July rainstorm quality sleet here in the Triad.  My goodness!!

Absolute sleet deluge

[USCG RS]

5 minutes ago, sakau2007 said:

i mostly agree, but where it's 25-27 degrees, even a little moderation is going to cause a lot of problems... especially as it has been well below freezing there for hours, so the infrastructure is already cold. but the ATL metro should escape because they are already hovering right at freezing and have been considerably warmer over the last 12-24 hours.

I actually just posted this in the other thread

 

The physics of this is both complicated and nuanced. 

For rain to freeze, it has to be super cooled. Heavy rain has less of a chance to cool. 

Heavy freezing rain has less time to contact other freezing surfaces, which can lead to a run off thus making it accumulate less quickly, especially on elevated surfaces such as trees and power lines. 

Each rain drop also releases a touch of latent heat which can take longer to accrue. It also can warm the surrounding area ever so slightly. 

That withstanding, heavy ZR falling into the 20s with a light accreation already in place ovverules most of the potential negation of other factors. 

So if this line brings a good amount of QPF, it will accumulate, and quite a bit. Quickly as well. 

[Snow dog]

10 minutes ago, sakau2007 said:

i think atlanta metro area is going to barely escape an ice storm disaster. temps seem to be around 31-34 degrees so when the heaviest rain falls over the next few hours, it will be marginal at worst.

once you head NE of town through Gwinnett county towards Buford, though, temps are in the upper 20s and they could have big problems. Definitely going to be a disastrous ice storm in places like Gainesville, Toccoa, Lake Lanier and upstate SC.

Don’t disagree, however where I sit in Greenville(right on I-85), the is currently zero ice in the trees.  I think just north of downtown has more ice.  I’m sure it’s coming, but praying I stay below .4” of ice, which might keep power on in mby 

[Brick Tamland]

46 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

For Raleigh I’d say both: win without an ice storm but bust bc with precip and an over performing wedge this would’ve been an awesome sleet storm

I think it was a win that we got sleet instead of freezing rain. I would say it was a bust with the models, especially the globals, with the amount of freezing rain they were showing. I think even the short range models were showing more freezing rain except the NAM. Also a huge bust in the globals with them all having a monster snow storm here 4 to 5 days out.

[ADB83]

HRRR has given up and says “I don’t know” for the final line of moisturec

[gman]

FWIW. I was just looking at the future radar. It looks like the line of precipitation will hit here starting about 3:30. It also looks like the heavy rain is breaking up when it arrives. Could those storms in southern Georgia take some of the energy and moisture away from NE Georgia and Upstate SC?

[LovingGulfLows]

Areas in the northern metro of ATL are reporting all sleet in the heavier banding....portends to good news for the Carolinas.

[Brick Tamland]

14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Anyone who thinks this last batch will create an ice storm in areas that have minimal accrual to this point will be wrong. If your area has a decent amount of ice to this point yes it could worsen the impacts. But it’s not going to cause an ice storm in areas without ice. The storm is over from a pure ice storm stance in all areas that didn’t accumulate ice to this point. Heavy line type precip will 1) not accumulate well and 2) not last long enough to cause an ice storm in 3-4 hours. Just not how ice buildup works

WRAL busted big time calling for twice as much freezing rain in the Triangle than RAH did.

[neatlburbwthrguy]

1 minute ago, LovingGulfLows said:

Areas in the northern metro of ATL are reporting all sleet in the heavier banding....portends to good news for the Carolinas.

I’m in north metro & seen zero sleet it’s all rain / freezing rain 

[cbmclean]

19 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

July rainstorm quality sleet here in the Triad.  My goodness!!

I've always dreamed if experiencing that.