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Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres


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I’m unfortunately running with the fact that the NAM is gonna win the changeover battle. Happens too often. Couple factors here could suggest it’s too aggressive but I think you have to give it the edge. At that point, you just gotta root to get pummeled as much as possible from midnight-8am. That’s all I’m checking for. 

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Had to take a break from the models for a bit. My brain felt like jello. Needed a good nights sleep. Down to 3 degrees here last night. One thing I noticed this morning is the meso models initialized a couple of degrees warmer than actual temps. Not sure if that matters. National radar looks phenomenal. Plenty of juice is coming. It's gonna snow. 

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

Had to take a break from the models for a bit. My brain felt like jello. Needed a good nights sleep. Down to 3 degrees here last night. One thing I noticed this morning is the meso models initialized a couple of degrees warmer than actual temps. Not sure if that matters. National radar looks phenomenal. Plenty of juice is coming. It's gonna snow. 

Yeah we even got lower than the NWS forecast by 2 degrees here, which is rare, usually the cold underperforms. 

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Parent NAM (ugh) is still a morning changeover, but it looks like ~0.5" QPF, so same ballpark as the HRRR.  Not a catastrophe.

Speak for up north. Charlottesville gets almost under an inch of snow. Seriously, how do I make a forecast with the extremes being 7 inches of all snow and another 3 of sleet or 1 inch of snow!

1769335200-jHsgp5UgjaM.png

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