Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

7 inches of snow is a fail and no longer a thump ???  This is dc lol not Watertown NY. 

[Weather Will]

Actually HRRR could be a worse case scenario, a long duration light freezing rain/ drizzle period.

[pazzo83]

DFW reporting "heavy ice pellets" - not sure I've seen that one

[RevWarReenactor]

4 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Little dated but the latest

They are slowly stepping down their totals. 

[RevWarReenactor]

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

7 inches of snow is a fail and no longer a thump ???  This is dc lol not Watertown NY. 

Its just a huge step back from the 6z.

But a lot actually. Its not that its bad, its that the model has changed significantly. 

[NorthArlington101]

I’m unfortunately running with the fact that the NAM is gonna win the changeover battle. Happens too often. Couple factors here could suggest it’s too aggressive but I think you have to give it the edge. At that point, you just gotta root to get pummeled as much as possible from midnight-8am. That’s all I’m checking for. 

[Ji]

Will use this if you are doing HRRR pbp

[DDweatherman]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

HRRR changes every run with qpf placement it will be different at 18Z

If 13z went out as far, it would be different. The US mesoscale sweet is literal trash outside of 25%-40% its range.  (HRRR hr 12, Nam/3k hr 36, rap and RRFS hour 0)

[Solution Man]

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Its just a huge step back from the 6z.

But a lot actually. Its not that its bad, its that the model has changed significantly. 

living and dying by hrrr runs 24 hours from game time is a recipe for not having fun. 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

living and dying by hrrr runs 24 hours from game time is a recipe for not having fun. 

Closer to hour 30, even worse. It’s QPF inconsistency is volatile even when we’re tracking inside hour 12. 

[konksw]

4 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Does ice include sleet in that context?

[clskinsfan]

Had to take a break from the models for a bit. My brain felt like jello. Needed a good nights sleep. Down to 3 degrees here last night. One thing I noticed this morning is the meso models initialized a couple of degrees warmer than actual temps. Not sure if that matters. National radar looks phenomenal. Plenty of juice is coming. It's gonna snow. 

[arlwx12]

LWX's 816 am forecast now calls for 8 inches expected in Washington.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Had to take a break from the models for a bit. My brain felt like jello. Needed a good nights sleep. Down to 3 degrees here last night. One thing I noticed this morning is the meso models initialized a couple of degrees warmer than actual temps. Not sure if that matters. National radar looks phenomenal. Plenty of juice is coming. It's gonna snow. 

Yeah we even got lower than the NWS forecast by 2 degrees here, which is rare, usually the cold underperforms. 

[Weather Will]

My take from HRRR is that the glacier is still coming.  Complete your errands today.  Roads will be hazardous at least through Monday. Widespread 6 plus inches of snow, with sleet and ice on top of frozen ground. WB 12z HRRR

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, konksw said:

Does ice include sleet in that context?

I think this is freezing rain, but I defer to experts

 

[arlwx12]

And the 815 ice forecast called for 0.16" in DC.

[mitchnick]

I still think back to that anafrontal snow in March 2014 where the Nam insisted on a warm layer around same spot as this storm, while other models played it down. Nam was wrong and mby got 7". We'll see.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z NBM para

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[MN Transplant]

Parent NAM (ugh) is still a morning changeover, but it looks like ~0.5" QPF, so same ballpark as the HRRR.  Not a catastrophe.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

precip always off on models i am sure you compare nam, euro etc they would be off too

[konksw]

Just now, Solution Man said:

Pretty close range with 8.8 expected and 10 being the 10% boom scenario. 

[mitchnick]

If you look at the DC sounding at 7am, it is clearly close enough for snow even if Nam is correct.

[MN Transplant]

Another dud of a NAM Nest run.  Changeover at 7am in DC.  Less than 0.4" QPF to that point.

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Parent NAM (ugh) is still a morning changeover, but it looks like ~0.5" QPF, so same ballpark as the HRRR.  Not a catastrophe.

Speak for up north. Charlottesville gets almost under an inch of snow. Seriously, how do I make a forecast with the extremes being 7 inches of all snow and another 3 of sleet or 1 inch of snow!

[Weather Will]

Verbatim, ice by 8am everywhere except far north on WB 12Z 3K NAM; everywhere by 11.

[NorthArlington101]

Another dud of a NAM Nest run.  Changeover at 7am in DC.  Less than 0.4" QPF to that point.

Becoming fairly clear that if you want to see it snow for a decent bit of time, you better wake up by 5am at latest.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3k is still 4-5 for dc before changeover.  Not a bad low end goal post to have.