SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 inches of snow is a fail and no longer a thump ??? This is dc lol not Watertown NY. 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Actually HRRR could be a worse case scenario, a long duration light freezing rain/ drizzle period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 DFW reporting "heavy ice pellets" - not sure I've seen that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Little dated but the latest They are slowly stepping down their totals. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: 7 inches of snow is a fail and no longer a thump ??? This is dc lol not Watertown NY. Its just a huge step back from the 6z. But a lot actually. Its not that its bad, its that the model has changed significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I’m unfortunately running with the fact that the NAM is gonna win the changeover battle. Happens too often. Couple factors here could suggest it’s too aggressive but I think you have to give it the edge. At that point, you just gotta root to get pummeled as much as possible from midnight-8am. That’s all I’m checking for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Will use this if you are doing HRRR pbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: HRRR changes every run with qpf placement it will be different at 18Z If 13z went out as far, it would be different. The US mesoscale sweet is literal trash outside of 25%-40% its range. (HRRR hr 12, Nam/3k hr 36, rap and RRFS hour 0) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: Its just a huge step back from the 6z. But a lot actually. Its not that its bad, its that the model has changed significantly. living and dying by hrrr runs 24 hours from game time is a recipe for not having fun. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: living and dying by hrrr runs 24 hours from game time is a recipe for not having fun. Closer to hour 30, even worse. It’s QPF inconsistency is volatile even when we’re tracking inside hour 12. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Does ice include sleet in that context? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Had to take a break from the models for a bit. My brain felt like jello. Needed a good nights sleep. Down to 3 degrees here last night. One thing I noticed this morning is the meso models initialized a couple of degrees warmer than actual temps. Not sure if that matters. National radar looks phenomenal. Plenty of juice is coming. It's gonna snow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 LWX's 816 am forecast now calls for 8 inches expected in Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, clskinsfan said: Had to take a break from the models for a bit. My brain felt like jello. Needed a good nights sleep. Down to 3 degrees here last night. One thing I noticed this morning is the meso models initialized a couple of degrees warmer than actual temps. Not sure if that matters. National radar looks phenomenal. Plenty of juice is coming. It's gonna snow. Yeah we even got lower than the NWS forecast by 2 degrees here, which is rare, usually the cold underperforms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 My take from HRRR is that the glacier is still coming. Complete your errands today. Roads will be hazardous at least through Monday. Widespread 6 plus inches of snow, with sleet and ice on top of frozen ground. WB 12z HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, konksw said: Does ice include sleet in that context? I think this is freezing rain, but I defer to experts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 And the 815 ice forecast called for 0.16" in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I still think back to that anafrontal snow in March 2014 where the Nam insisted on a warm layer around same spot as this storm, while other models played it down. Nam was wrong and mby got 7". We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 WB 12Z NBM para 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Parent NAM (ugh) is still a morning changeover, but it looks like ~0.5" QPF, so same ballpark as the HRRR. Not a catastrophe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: precip always off on models i am sure you compare nam, euro etc they would be off too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Solution Man said: Pretty close range with 8.8 expected and 10 being the 10% boom scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 If you look at the DC sounding at 7am, it is clearly close enough for snow even if Nam is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Another dud of a NAM Nest run. Changeover at 7am in DC. Less than 0.4" QPF to that point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Parent NAM (ugh) is still a morning changeover, but it looks like ~0.5" QPF, so same ballpark as the HRRR. Not a catastrophe. Speak for up north. Charlottesville gets almost under an inch of snow. Seriously, how do I make a forecast with the extremes being 7 inches of all snow and another 3 of sleet or 1 inch of snow! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Verbatim, ice by 8am everywhere except far north on WB 12Z 3K NAM; everywhere by 11. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Another dud of a NAM Nest run. Changeover at 7am in DC. Less than 0.4" QPF to that point.Becoming fairly clear that if you want to see it snow for a decent bit of time, you better wake up by 5am at latest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3k is still 4-5 for dc before changeover. Not a bad low end goal post to have. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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