Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[Shad]

HRRR a touch colder at 37?

[Weather Will]

WB HRRR 2am Sunday, 5, 7, 8,  10, flips at 11 am:

[bncho]

Absolute beatdown on the HRRR

 

[bncho]

I think HRRR might lose thermals soon but if it holds out until the end of its run then DC gets 10"

[bncho]

SE DC loses thermals at hr 46, NW DC and burbs holding on...

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, bncho said:

I think HRRR might lose thermals soon but if it holds out until the end of its run then DC gets 10"

DC looks to flip after 11am. Currently on the pre-flip-to-sleep-rippage panel.

[Eskimo Joe]

Yea the 18z HRRR is definitely colder and wetter. More snow for I-95 and points north and west. More sleet than ZR for southern MD too.

[bncho]

HRRR's gonna be ~10" in DC. They flip to sleet/rimed snow at 11AM. 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

SE DC loses thermals at hr 46, NW DC and burbs holding on...

Still snow at 46 at DCA thanks to rates... but its not isothermal yet

[bncho]

What a prolific THUMP on the HRRR

[Stormchaserchuck1]

18z Hrr again looks like all snow Baltimore-north. Might stay that way for the duration as it looks like it transfers the coastal fast/south again. The RAP and Hrr specialize as short term models, better accuracy within 24-36 hours, but it looks like 12"+ Baltimore north. 

[yoda]

Yes I know its the 18z HRRR at the end of its run, but note 700-800mb.  Doesn't go positive aka above 0c.  This is the sounding at DCA.  Yes, its probably rimed snow... but i don't think this shows a pure sleet profile 

 

[Terpeast]

Love the HRRR run. Probably out of its range, but see its trying to start a coastal.

[Eskimo Joe]

18z HRRR is a great run from I-70 north.

[Weather Will]

HR 48 WB 18Z HRRR, great start!

[SnowGolfBro]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

What a prolific THUMP on the HRRR

And likely 6-12 hours of something frozen falling after the end of the run heh

[MN Transplant]

Lord help us all for looking at the HRRR at range, but it is a good 0.70" QPF before the flip in DC.  Nice run.

[bncho]

Just now, yoda said:

Yes I know its the 18z HRRR at the end of its run, but note 700-800mb.  Doesn't go positive aka above 0c.  This is the sounding at DCA 

 

That's probably rimed snow/sleet mix

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Love the HRRR run. Probably out of its range, but see its trying to start a coastal.

Verbatim that would've flipped us back to some snow at the end, no?

[NorthArlington101]

Could be WxBell just being funky, but it tries to accumulate some snow after the flip to sleet while also accumulating sleet on the separate sleet panels. True wintry mix? Can it try and split 50/50 what falls? No idea.

Just now, yoda said:

Yes I know its the 18z HRRR at the end of its run, but note 700-800mb.  Doesn't go positive aka above 0c.  This is the sounding at DCA 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

Lord help us all for looking at the HRRR at range, but it is a good 0.70" QPF before the flip in DC.  Nice run.

It's not on an island. Most of the 12z suite ticked colder throughout the column.

[baltosquid]

18z RRFS continuing to bring the plains HP further southeast at hr15. Need as much push as we can get to prevent the primary from climbing.

[Terpeast]

IAD is close to flipping at 48 (18z) on HRRR. This is probably the time it flips. 

[baltosquid]

18z NAM also at hr15 is bringing the HP further into the plains, and a bit stronger. Heights pressing a bit more. Keep the trend going...

[Terpeast]

DGZ looks fantastic on the HRRR right before the flip, too. If this holds, oh my...

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

Lord help us all for looking at the HRRR at range, but it is a good 0.70" QPF before the flip in DC.  Nice run.

Many/most runs today have really heavy snow leading into the flip. Like that 14-17z period probably 1-2”/hr

[bncho]

Do any Mets have any possible implications for this?

 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Terpeast said:

DGZ looks fantastic on the HRRR right before the flip, too. If this holds, oh my...

I see that, we’d have some good growth, dendrite central. Can still see the NW crew pulling off 13-15:1 ratios. 

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

IAD is close to flipping at 48 (18z) on HRRR. This is probably the time it flips. 

Stays really cold out this way though. Nice to see the models starting to get an idea of the amount of cold coming. 

[WEATHER53]

I don’t see gaps or weakness in the highs from Chicago to Long  Island

Wall to wall 1035+.  It will be a new and learning experience if a modest low can dislodge that