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January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!


SnowenOutThere
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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ve used up all my reactions for today!  I expect this to probably continue through Monday?

You think having unlimited reactions would be a mod perk amirite?

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Just now, Joshb32689 said:

Would someone be so kind as to explain what it is we are rooting for as these new models are coming in - More/less confluence? More/less spacing? Phasing? I can’t tell if I should be excited or disappointed 

yes.

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7 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Regardless of where the nam goes the rest of this run, everyone remember that it is the nam.  I'm not model bashing, just pointing out that past 60 hours it may be on acid.

You're mighty old for a JV forecaster.

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17 minutes ago, Joshb32689 said:

Would someone be so kind as to explain what it is we are rooting for as these new models are coming in - More/less confluence? More/less spacing? Phasing? I can’t tell if I should be excited or disappointed 

Hopefully someone that knows what they are talking about will see your questions and answer them, but I think confluence has to do with how tightly the streamlines are spaced on a weather map.  The more tightly space (higher confluence) the more likelihood of precipitation and storm enhancement.  So, when we heard in the main thread someone saying that confluence looked lower, that is a good thing for this specific storm because if it gets too juiced up, the primary low is more likely to go more north into the Ohio valley, and bring in more warm air aloft over us.

Now someone can correct me.  Except @bncho.  He's on my sh&t list for calling me old. :lol:

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