Shad Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 slightly juicer out front at 24...no major changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Take us home @stormtracker 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just comparing surface maps...GFS basically the same so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: Yes but the GFS has been creeping slowly to the northwest with the sleet line. Yeah both sides of the argument are maybe meeting in the middle, the GFS "winning" at this point is not really like what it would be like if it "won" with one of its earlier runs, for sure. It would just give its depiction some more credence even if it was over-committed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Icon Icon drops another 3-4" this week too! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Baja low a little quicker to eject 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Remarkably consistent, almost carbon copy so far 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 looks to be a little more amped on the H5 map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Consistent with thermals and a touch wetter so far 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 My weather radio just spat out the first alert, game time 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Remarkably consistent, almost carbon copy so far Thump is wetter thru 6am 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, LP08 said: Baja low a little quicker to eject I would ask if that's what we want...but what we want/don't want has changed so many times or had so many caveats I lost count, lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Snow breaking out in western North Carolina that wasn’t there at 33 on 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Wetter. 12z is money 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 If 15z is still snow...man 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I would ask if that's what we want...but what we want/don't want has changed so many times or had so many caveats I lost count, lol I think it helps and hurts. Better moisture but may cause thermals issues. I’d risk thermals for a better thump which seems to be the case this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Got super wetter on the eastern shore 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Sounds folksie to me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 18z prob isn't snow...i wish it was tho..another great panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 NAM’s are hands down the most aggressive at the handling of the thermal profiles with the warm nose marching northward faster than any other guidance. I do think it’ll come in quick, but perhaps the NAM is too aggressive at this lead. NAM Nest wheelhouse starts tonight and improves stepping through time closer to the event. Curious to see how it responds. The margins are thin when it comes to the handling of the warm nose between 850-700mb. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 51 is wild in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Switch to ICE happens quicker in VA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Sounds folksie to me If it was snow, yeah. It's only like noise level warmer in next panel...still wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 At 7 AM on Sunday morning, the DMV is getting crushed 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If 15z is still snow...man Doesn't want to flip D.C. til right after 1pm. Hope it's not the worst model in the world. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Doesn't want to flip D.C. til right after 1pm. Hope it's not the worst model in the world. It's the only one doing this. It's clearly missing something. I kinda wish it would have caved by now to stop giving us false hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Shad said: Switch to ICE happens quicker in VA Yeah on the H5 map you could tell it was going to come north a little. That need to stop right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 WB 12Z GFS 1 pm flip DC; 4; 1 am, 4 am 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 44 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Any chance the warm layers are being overdone? Is it possible to have a snow/sleet mix after the flip that os more like 6-1 ratio wise? https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/53067 Analysis of Model Thermal Profile Forecasts Associated with Winter Mixed Precipitation within the United States Mid-Atlantic Region This paper looked at overrunning events in a CAD setup in the mid-atlantic and found a warm bias for NAM and NAM3k. Quote "Winter mixed-precipitation events across the mid-Atlantic region of the United States from 2013–2014 through 2018–2019 were used to analyze common short-term model forecasts of vertical atmospheric thermal structure. Using saturated forecast soundings of the North American Mesoscale (NAM), higher-resolution nested NAM (NAMnest), and the Rapid Refresh models—corresponding with observed warm-nose precipitation events (WNPEs)—several thermal metrics formed the basis of the analysis of observed and forecast soundings...." Money part: Quote “Well forecast are maximum and minimum temperatures within the warm nose and surface-based cold layer, respectively, but the cold layer is commonly too thin for each of the models, and the warm nose is regularly too thick, particularly within NAM and NAMnest forecasts.......In terms of the nature of bias in precipitation-type forecast, the NAM model is exclusively warm-biased… For the NAM-Nest model, 28.9% of cases are warm-biased while only 3.8% are cold-biased.” 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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