Maestrobjwa Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, TowsonWeather said: I guess I'm a big dummy because I'm just not seeing any noteworthy evidence of a cave here. And let me be clear: I FULLY expect the GFS to cave some or all of the way to a Euro-like solution at some point. I'm just saying that, to my eye anyway, the differences folks are pointing to are so small and synoptically inconsequential as to be well within the normal run-to-run variability. It's actually remarkably consistent with the 18Z run. Again, to my eye. I fully acknowledge I could be missing something big. From what a couple others have said it makes sense...very subtle changes but they're there. 6z and 12z will certainly be telling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Looks like DC stays all snow until about 15z Sunday on CMC based off the 700 map. By then 1” of QPF has fallen so its quite the thump. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 WB 0Z Can. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Here's what I'm thinking. In the upper levels, any difference in temperature can make a huge difference at the surface. A bust -0.25*C cold is probably an extra hour of snow before a flip to mixing, which is an extra 1-2". In these overrunning CAD setups it's harder to predict the upper level temps. There's more risk for those forecasts to bust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 0Z Can. That would be a cool storm. I get 8" snow followed by 3" of sleet and 0.5" freezing rain. That would definitely keep me out of school the whole week as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z Can. Thats 1" more precip than the Euro in some spots. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z Can. lol well that would be something. 7" snow to 2.5" sleet then .5" ZR? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, nj2va said: Looks like DC stays all snow until about 15z Sunday on CMC based off the 700 map. By then 1” of QPF has fallen so its quite the thump. yeah. even assuming 12:1, that's a good hit. I'm going with noon flip for DC for now. seems about the right time for the infamous sound of pinging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, bncho said: That would be a cool storm. I get 8" snow followed by 3" of sleet and 0.5" freezing rain. That would definitely keep me out of school the whole week as well. Yes, you can catch up on your biology.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z Can. Great, an inch of rain apparently 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, balltermen said: yeah. even assuming 12:1, that's a good hit. I'm going with noon flip for DC for now. seems about the right time for the infamous sound of pinging Worth noting that the LWX AFD says "Snow to liquid ratios look to start around 15-18:1 with this system for the entirety of the area, while then trending down toward 7-10:1 Sunday morning into the afternoon" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 YMMV, but i think it makes sense to forecast snow amounts as "including" sleet since it's included anyway. 6-10" (including sleet) is better than 5-8" of snow. and then 1-2" of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Nomz said: Worth noting that the LWX AFD says "Snow to liquid ratios look to start around 15-18:1 with this system for the entirety of the area, while then trending down toward 7-10:1 Sunday morning into the afternoon" yeah. I'm not as apt to bite on that. I figure 12:1 is a conservative blend until we flip. then around 3:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 it looks kinda ugly. flip is around 17z maybe for DC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Where is the cold air btw? Temps are running +5 to +10 over modeled currently around our region. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Where is the cold air btw? Temps are running +5 to +10 over modeled currently around our region. It got lost, it’s all rain for you. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Where is the cold air btw? Temps are running +5 to +10 over modeled currently around our region. Cold air slower to come in slower to leave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Where is the cold air btw? Temps are running +5 to +10 over modeled currently around our region. The arctic front doesn't come through until Friday evening, but when it does, the freeze is on. Multiple models show upper 30s at 4pm falling to low teens by 1am. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Where is the cold air btw? Temps are running +5 to +10 over modeled currently around our region. Seems as modeled to me. Right now I am 38.7F. Most recent NAM calls for 39F. 24 hours ago NAM called for 37. Seems pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Ukie looks colder than 18z through 60 (which was end of run for the 18z). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Was CMC colder compared to 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 7 minutes ago, balltermen said: it looks kinda ugly. flip is around 17z maybe for DC. That map is trash and includes sleet. Calculating in on pivtol its like 6" snow dc before the flip about 10 at the pa line. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: That map is trash and includes sleet. Calculating in on pivtol its like 6" snow dc before the flip about 10 at the pa line. yeah. not sure why I posted 18z Monday. I think meant to do 18z sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, balltermen said: yeah. not sure why I posted 18z Monday. I think meant to do 18z sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 This board has really become kinda slow. It's been really fun readin all the posts - but now everything has kind of fallen off. What really tends to irk me is how we faithfully track storms, only to have the damn NNE get the snow, while we make due with the scraps. Time after time, after time after time. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Jebman said: This board has really become kinda slow. It's been really fun readin all the posts - but now everything has kind of fallen off. Jeb I was supposed to be flying out your way on Sunday - obviously that's not happening, now we're going next weekend. Aren't you worried about losing power? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, pazzo83 said: Jeb I was supposed to be flying out your way on Sunday - obviously that's not happening, now we're going next weekend. Aren't you worried about losing power? His power is generated by his Jebwalk, he has nothing to worry about. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Jeb I was supposed to be flying out your way on Sunday - obviously that's not happening, now we're going next weekend. Aren't you worried about losing power? No, my location is really only going to get really cold for 3 days but with only a tenth of an inch of ice. I feel really bad for the people who have to deal with 2 inches of solid ice. Hey if you fly out to TX - try out the brisket out here. Damn that stuff is so good! Besides, if I do lose power, I would just sleep in my car, I got lots of cozy blankets and thick beach towels and I'd just cover up and snooze right through all the ice, if we got that much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, Jebman said: This board has really become kinda slow. It's been really fun readin all the posts - but now everything has kind of fallen off. Model fatigue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said: Model fatigue? Yep, and it just seems all the models have to offer the DMV, is more sleet and less snow these days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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