Jebman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 30 minutes ago, wtkidz said: You could be in Tennessee , Kentucky, or West Virginia and have this. Two fooking inches of ice. Damn. That's going to be very, very bad. Bad, bad Leroy Brown. Baddest accretion in the whole damn town. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 AI a touch slower with onset. Comes in hard. Rough guessing 12 hours of snow before the flip. Pretty heavy sleet after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 AIFS is not a disaster...but over the last 24 hours it went from being one of the best solutions to now maybe the worst at 12z. Its 8-9" for DC and Baltimore...about 10" up here. Jack zone shifted quite a bit to our NW. Looks similar to GGEM with track and thermals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, psuhoffman said: AIFS is not a disaster...but over the last 24 hours it went from being one of the best solutions to now maybe the worst at 12z. Its 8-9" for DC and Baltimore...about 10" up here. Jack zone shifted quite a bit to our NW. Looks similar to GGEM with track and thermals Actually it's warmer than the GGEM, pushes the 850 about 20 miles further NW than the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Noon TV guesses (I guess for snow) for the immediate DC metro area: Channel 7: 8"-12"as low as Channel 9: 8"-12" The last NWS maps I saw were 9" expected, 10% less than 3", 10% more than 11" (I don't think that adds in the slop) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 12z AIFS is significantly NW and warmer... is it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Actually it's warmer than the GGEM, pushes the 850 about 20 miles further NW than the GGEM. 5”+ inches of snow with the thump then we sleet. That’s where we’re rolling. Better than rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Nothing remarkable so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 AI is 0.4 QPF by 12z and then 0.8 by 18z in DC. Changeover in between, implies about 6-10 inches in DC with ratios. Kinda the lower end of what guidance has been showing but acceptable nonetheless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Actually it's warmer than the GGEM, pushes the 850 about 20 miles further NW than the GGEM. Lose 700 midday Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Pasting over all of this to the thread, will take some time 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 on sfc maps, a little flatter out front...noticeable, but nothing to suggest huge changes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 7 minutes ago, jayyy said: GFS certainly has the full support of its ensembles. This is the literal exact situation we wouldn’t trust its thermals over the euro or NAM nest (inside 48 hrs) though. 6-10+ for the immediate metros and 8-12+ for areas away from 95 seems like a reasonable call at this juncture. Could we see 12-18” up this way? Maybe. But I’m going to play it safe with 8-12 with upside GFS is often the last to budge and can be very stubborn holding onto a solution. It also lacks support from other guidance at the moment. Im not saying anything definitive but I would be very surprised if the GFS op was leading the way here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, konksw said: is it? It's slower so comparing the same time period doesn't necessarily indicate a trend 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's slower so comparing the same time period doesn't necessarily indicate a trend Also, he's talking about the wrong model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 AIFS trend 2 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Here she comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's slower so comparing the same time period doesn't necessarily indicate a trend Which probably allows the confluence to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 EURO def south with the initial WAA pus, at least 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: AIFS trend Yeah that's not good...man I just don't wanna lose a warning level snowfall with this at the last minute. 6-10" bare minimum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, EHoffman said: Also, he's talking about the wrong model yea there's that too lol It's just one data point...just one run of one model...but the AIFS trend is not good... 24 hours ago when it was showing what we wanted we were rightfully pointing out how good it's been and that having it on our side was a big deal...so losing it to the more amplified NW camp is not what we want. But again...it's just one piece of evidence not the whole show... if the op euro and EPS come in good that would outweigh the significance some. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: AIFS trend La Niña de-amp beginning at 0z? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, stormtracker said: Looks drier/flatter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Which probably allows the confluence to leave. it ends up speeding back up...in the end it simply trended further NW, primary hangs on longer...looks kinda like last nights GGEM 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 10 minutes ago, konksw said: is it? We get screwed by the transfer from the primary to the coastal. It causes a lull/minimum in precip. We've seen this happen many times in the past. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: That's not bad based on heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Euro is colder at 850s this run, at least. It’s at least a stop the “bleeding” run 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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