January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[balltermen]

this is for SE of 95.  if we flip on the early side  

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, TowsonWeather said:

I guess I'm a big dummy because I'm just not seeing any noteworthy evidence of a cave here. 

And let me be clear: I FULLY expect the GFS to cave some or all of the way to a Euro-like solution at some point. I'm just saying that, to my eye anyway, the differences folks are pointing to are so small and synoptically inconsequential as to be well within the normal run-to-run variability. It's actually remarkably consistent with the 18Z run. Again, to my eye. I fully acknowledge I could be missing something big. 

From what a couple others have said it makes sense...very subtle changes but they're there. 6z and 12z will certainly be telling!

[nj2va]

Looks like DC stays all snow until about 15z Sunday on CMC based off the 700 map. By then 1” of QPF has fallen so its quite the thump.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z Can.

[bncho]

Here's what I'm thinking.

In the upper levels, any difference in temperature can make a huge difference at the surface. 

A bust -0.25*C cold is probably an extra hour of snow before a flip to mixing, which is an extra 1-2".

In these overrunning CAD setups it's harder to predict the upper level temps. There's more risk for those forecasts to bust.

[bncho]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z Can.

That would be a cool storm. I get 8" snow followed by 3" of sleet and 0.5" freezing rain. That would definitely keep me out of school the whole week as well.

[Amped]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z Can.

Thats 1" more precip than the Euro in some spots.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z Can.

lol well that would be something. 7" snow to 2.5" sleet then .5" ZR? lol 

[balltermen]

Just now, nj2va said:

Looks like DC stays all snow until about 15z Sunday on CMC based off the 700 map. By then 1” of QPF has fallen so its quite the thump.

yeah.  even assuming 12:1, that's a good hit.  I'm going with noon flip for DC for now.  seems about the right time for the infamous sound of pinging 

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

That would be a cool storm. I get 8" snow followed by 3" of sleet and 0.5" freezing rain. That would definitely keep me out of school the whole week as well.

Yes, you can catch up on your biology....

[AlexD1990]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z Can.

Great, an inch of rain apparently 

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, balltermen said:

yeah.  even assuming 12:1, that's a good hit.  I'm going with noon flip for DC for now.  seems about the right time for the infamous sound of pinging 

Worth noting that the LWX AFD says "Snow to liquid ratios look to start around 15-18:1 with this system for the entirety of the area, while then trending down toward 7-10:1 Sunday morning into the afternoon"

[balltermen]

YMMV, but i think it makes sense to forecast snow amounts as "including" sleet since it's included anyway.  6-10" (including sleet) is better than 5-8" of snow. and then 1-2" of sleet 

[balltermen]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

Worth noting that the LWX AFD says "Snow to liquid ratios look to start around 15-18:1 with this system for the entirety of the area, while then trending down toward 7-10:1 Sunday morning into the afternoon"

yeah.  I'm not as apt to bite on that.  I figure 12:1 is a conservative blend until we flip. then around 3:1. 

[balltermen]

it looks kinda ugly. flip is around 17z maybe for DC. 

 

[TSSN+]

Where is the cold air btw? Temps are running +5 to +10 over modeled currently around our region.

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Where is the cold air btw? Temps are running +5 to +10 over modeled currently around our region.

It got lost, it’s all rain for you. 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Where is the cold air btw? Temps are running +5 to +10 over modeled currently around our region.

Cold air slower to come in slower to leave!

[high risk]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Where is the cold air btw? Temps are running +5 to +10 over modeled currently around our region.

   The arctic front doesn't come through until Friday evening, but when it does, the freeze is on.    Multiple models show upper 30s at 4pm falling to low teens by 1am.

[Random Chaos]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Where is the cold air btw? Temps are running +5 to +10 over modeled currently around our region.

Seems as modeled to me. Right now I am 38.7F. Most recent NAM calls for 39F. 24 hours ago NAM called for 37. Seems pretty good.

[hstorm]

Ukie looks colder than 18z through 60 (which was end of run for the 18z). 

[winter_warlock]

Was CMC colder compared to 18z?

[TSSN+]

7 minutes ago, balltermen said:

it looks kinda ugly. flip is around 17z maybe for DC. 

 

That map is trash and includes sleet. Calculating in on pivtol its like 6" snow dc before the flip about 10 at the pa line. 

[balltermen]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

That map is trash and includes sleet. Calculating in on pivtol its like 6" snow dc before the flip about 10 at the pa line. 

yeah. not sure why I posted 18z Monday. I think meant to do 18z sunday. 

[balltermen]

2 minutes ago, balltermen said:

yeah. not sure why I posted 18z Monday. I think meant to do 18z sunday. 

 

[Jebman]

This board has really become kinda slow. It's been really fun readin all the posts - but now everything has kind of fallen off.

What really tends to irk me is how we faithfully track storms, only to have the damn NNE get the snow, while we make due with the scraps. Time after time, after time after time.

[pazzo83]

Just now, Jebman said:

This board has really become kinda slow. It's been really fun readin all the posts - but now everything has kind of fallen off.

Jeb I was supposed to be flying out your way on Sunday - obviously that's not happening, now we're going next weekend.  Aren't you worried about losing power?

[ravensrule]

Just now, pazzo83 said:

Jeb I was supposed to be flying out your way on Sunday - obviously that's not happening, now we're going next weekend.  Aren't you worried about losing power?

His power is generated by his Jebwalk, he has nothing to worry about. 

[Jebman]

5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Jeb I was supposed to be flying out your way on Sunday - obviously that's not happening, now we're going next weekend.  Aren't you worried about losing power?

No, my location is really only going to get really cold for 3 days but with only a tenth of an inch of ice. I feel really bad for the people who have to deal with 2 inches of solid ice.

Hey if you fly out to TX - try out the brisket out here. Damn that stuff is so good!

Besides, if I do lose power, I would just sleep in my car, I got lots of cozy blankets and thick beach towels and I'd just cover up and snooze right through all the ice, if we got that much.

[Berlin1926]

4 minutes ago, Jebman said:

This board has really become kinda slow. It's been really fun readin all the posts - but now everything has kind of fallen off.

Model fatigue?