January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[87storms]

It’s a close shave, no question about it, but does seem like this is one of those systems that could actually trend south instead of north. That’s some stout cold with a reinforcement incoming (just needs to be more incoming lol).

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Wow...if it caves it will be the most wrong the GFS has ever been on a storm we're tracking, lol I mean we're at 72 hrs and no change! I mean it HAS to happen at 12z tomorrow if it's gonna happen, right?

[JenkinsJinkies]

I'll be turning in before the euro runs. What would your take be if it's more or less the same as 18z?

[bringmesnow1]

Looks like 12+ along the 95 corridor

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

I mean it HAS to happen at 12z tomorrow

Probably the absolute latest the cave happens.

[mattie g]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's just slightly warmer but it's just not going the route the other models show

I'm not unhappy at this run verbatim, but I'm gonna take the pessimistic route and say that the confluence was ever so lessened on this run and it was reflected in the more prominent warm nose at 700 late on Sunday...and that 6z is going to take another step and be the obvious cave.

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, IronTy said:

GFS seems to hold.  

And more to come after hr 72

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z GFS 

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wow...if it caves it will be the most wrong the GFS has ever been on a storm we're tracking, lol I mean we're at 72 hrs and no change! I mean it HAS to happen at 12z tomorrow if it's gonna happen, right?

Well someone has to cave or maybe meet in the middle

[Warm Nose]

There's some serious PTSD in this thread

[TSSN+]

Love the run cause it crushes me, but it moves to the warmer models. Primary was stronger that run, coastal was shoved more into the coast. Also only model that flips back to snow after mix. 

[IronTy]

Just wondering, what happens after 72hrs?

[jwLwx]

[wxdude64]

Eyeballing those panels looks like about 11" here. 8" snow and 3" sleet then a .1 of ice. That is OK, minus that the OTG total after it stops will be in the 7" range. It'll be around a while though. 

[TowsonWeather]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Love the run cause it crushes me, but it moves to the warmer models. Primary was stronger that run, coastal was shoved more into the coast. Also only model that flips back to snow after mix. 

I mean, I'm as skeptical as everyone else that this will verify, but you're reaching some here, I think. These are mostly noise level differences.

[baltosquid]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Love the run cause it crushes me, but it moves to the warmer models. Primary was stronger that run, coastal was shoved more into the coast. Also only model that flips back to snow after mix. 

Yeah it looks like it's amping a bit more. I don't know if this depiction survives even another small nudge like that.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, TowsonWeather said:

I mean, I'm as skeptical as everyone else that this will verify, but you're reaching some here, I think. These are mostly noise level differences.

Yeah I mean I guess if we see those features strengthen/weaken again at 6z then perhaps it is a trend. But hard to tell that right now

[LP08]

AiGFS was colder than 18z at least at 700, fwiw

[Ji]

Isn’t it common for these big storms for sleet to change back to snow ?

[Eskimo Joe]

00z GFS is the best case scenario. 8"-12" along I-95, 12"-16" immediate western suburbs. 16"+ west of US 15. 

[Weather Will]

How much snow is really going to depend on where the heaviest bands set up before the flip. Look at WB 0Z GFS compared to 18Z.  Many of us lost several inches but there are those southeast of DC that picked up more this run.

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Isn’t it common for these big storms for sleet to change back to snow ?

The 850mb low needs to track south of us. 

If it tracks NW of our area were most likely going to dry slot.

[wxmeddler]

It's subtle, the GFS did cave a bit back to the west at 850mb looking at the isohypses. Not as far as other global guidance (Euro, UKMET, CMC, etc.) It's still very aggressive on it's coastal development along the warm front. More so than other models, which in turn slows down the WF advance northward.

[balltermen]

GFS is about 8-9" for DC before the flip which is about 2-ish?  we're hodl'ing at 18z. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

It's subtle, the GFS did cave a bit back to the west at 850mb looking at the isohypses. Not as far as other global guidance (Euro, UKMET, CMC, etc.) It's still very aggressive on it's coastal development along the warm front. More so than other models, which in turn slows down the WF advance northward.

So safe to say if we a similar cave at 6z then it's on it's way, lol Goodness gracious this model

[gopper]

3 hours ago, baltosquid said:

Yeah it looks like it's amping a bit more. I don't know if this depiction survives even another small nudge like that.

agree that GFS is starting its gradual cave towards Euro.  To me it appears to have lost a couple  inches of snow for most/many from the 18Z run.  I expect it will shave a couple inches off each run and meet the Euro fairly closely at game time.  For me in Towson, I am expecting 5-10 inches of snow turning to sleet. then a light freezing rain to top it off.  It will still be cold, white, and beautiful!  Just not as deep!  But should be fun walking on top of it this week.

[TSSN+]

cmc doesn't look bad no?

[balltermen]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Isn’t it common for these big storms for sleet to change back to snow ?

there's no real wraparound. we just get dry slotted. If GFS is right, Loudoun will get a lot of snow. 

[bringmesnow1]

Idk if the GFS really held serve.  While it's still putting down good snows for many, the trend is undeniably moving the bigger snows further to the NW with each of the last 4 runs.  

If this keeps up, it'll be squarely in the camp of the other models calling for a lot of QPF, but more like 5-10" of snow for the big cities, followed by a lot of sleet.

 

 

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, gopper said:

For me in Towson, I am expecting 5-10 inches of snow

Based on the last euro run and some forecasts here made in response to it I think it’ll be near the ceiling of your range.