January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[TSSN+]

So far thru 42 not much of a change.

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How so? NS is busier in ninas, right? So that means disruptions are more likely...right?

But when we get to this point, all that stuff is baked into the models already. If they're presenting the same on models, they have the same chance of going north or south regardless of the temperature of the Pacific Ocean.

[Weather Will]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We're gonna get the cave.  It's just a matter of when.  It's on its own.  We want it to be right, but we all know better. Or should know better

Same thru 45?

[IronTy]

Wow looks like my parents end up with more snow than DC from this system...and they live in Detroit.  

[Warm Nose]

Now we've got p!ssing matches on being right about a cave. Gotta 'win' at something, I suppose. 

[stormtracker]

Ok..first relevant panel

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

Sure!

Dont forget lake effect brother. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

Wow looks like my parents end up with more snow than DC from this system...and they live in Detroit.  

I mean the Great Lakes are right there...

[TowsonWeather]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Dont forget lake effect brother. 

I literally could not remotely care less about Chicago LES - if you wanna discuss this further, do so in banter.

[stormtracker]

so far, it's not budging 

[IronTy]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

I mean the Great Lakes are right there...

Detroit rarely ever gets lake effect snow.  Study up, man.  

[stormtracker]

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Steady as she goes.

[stormtracker]

[stormtracker]

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Detroit rarely ever gets lake effect snow.  Study up, man.  

Still the matter of higher latitude.

[weathercoins]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Doesn’t look like a cave.  Looks remarkably consistent to its last few runs?

[IronTy]

GFS seems to hold.  

 

[Kevin Reilly]

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Detroit rarely ever gets lake effect snow.  Study up, man.  

Yep, they are on the wrong side of Lake Erie down wind is over in Erie, PA or Southwestern New York State depending on wind vectors from the west, northwest, and southwest during cold air advection and wind patterns.

[LP08]

Still holding on 95 and west at 18z sunday

[stormtracker]

Just now, weathercoins said:

Doesn’t look like a cave.  Looks remarkably consistent to its last few runs?

It's just slightly warmer but it's just not going the route the other models show

[SnowenOutThere]

I mean the GFS is a bit faster with the sleet line but also has more QDF falling. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Okay, I'm placing my GFS cave bet on 6z.

[stormtracker]

[nj2va]

21z Sunday the 700 freezing line is bisecting DC and heads just north of DC at 00z Monday. DC already has 0.9” QPF at 21z.

eta:  it crashes east of 95 by 6z Monday and ends as snow (I think)

[SnowenOutThere]

DC south is sleet at this point

[caviman2201]

It still holds on thru 18z for the cities... honestly that's all I really want. Give ma few hours to play with the kids outside before the sleet starts

[stormtracker]

[LeesburgWx]

DC goes to sleet and then back to snow?

[stormtracker]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

DC goes to sleet and then back to snow?

DId that on 18z