January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[jayyy]

Would be hilarious if the NAM went toward the GFS.  If there ever was a time we wanted the GFS to be right...

We’re overdue for a 60 hour NAMing

[stormtracker]

Come on NAM..give us till at least 12-15z

[yoda]

Just taking verbatim... DCA has 2" of snow at 1am and ripping 

[stormtracker]

Looks like it's still snow at 12z...but prob about to fold

[TSSN+]

Looks drier and warmer to me bleh 

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Would be hilarious if the NAM went toward the GFS.  If there ever was a time we wanted the GFS to be right...

 U gotta will it to happen Randy!! 

[stormtracker]

It's definitely more diffuse and not like the 12z that's for sure...seem...like it's weaker or something

[MN Transplant]

Looks worse to me.  We've lost the column by 12z.

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Looks drier and warmer to me bleh 

It's def drier

[TSSN+]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

Looks worse to me.  We've lost the column by 12z.

Ya it sucks 

 

[psuhoffman]

it continued to be better at h5 

[LP08]

need the Baja low to come further east.  When it drags its disconnected so the over running loses its punch and it turns into two parts. 

[Buddy1987]

AM I nuts to think with the baja energy and the western ridging being delayed in the phase it's going to send two rounds of moisture here? Looks a good bit different at h5? That ridging got super tall this run.

Ninja'd by LP08

[stormtracker]

Went from this at 12z

 

To this

[TSSN+]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Ya it sucks 

 

Good thing it’s the Nam and will look completely different in 6hrs. Look over KY last run setting heavy qpf to 0 in one run. This model needs to go 

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Went from this at 12z

 

To this

It’s getting retired soon for a reason 

[T. August]

Kuchera is dastardly 

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

AM I nuts to think with the baja energy and the western ridging being delayed in the phase it's going to send two rounds of moisture here? Looks a good bit different at h5? That ridging got super tall this run.

The gfs was doing that with its total fails a couple of days ago. It looks like this is going to cut no matter what. May as well hope for an organized precip bomb to maximize the thump. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Looks drier and warmer to me bleh 

I was kicking this around when some of the 12z runs showed this trend...and now I am pretty sure... less amped is not necessarily what we want anymore.  Unless it goes full on GFS, the other less amp solutions are just ending up warmer and dryer because there is less intense WAA precip, which cools the column and holds off the advance of the WAA for a time.  So these slightly weaker solutions are actually worse...yea the track might be slightly better...but it fails to change the changeover time significantly and it just cuts down on the thump before we flip.  

[yoda]

Sunday night is ripping sleet lol

[osfan24]

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

AM I nuts to think with the baja energy and the western ridging being delayed in the phase it's going to send two rounds of moisture here? Looks a good bit different at h5? That ridging got super tall this run.

Ninja'd by LP08

Right, kinda reminded me of the GFS run actually.

[bncho]

The Capital Weather Gang posts a forecast that they're only 50% sure about lol

[hstorm]

3k NAM looks quite a bit colder at 60 (end of run) than the 12k. 

[paxpatriot]

Can't even get a proper Nam'ing. SMDH...

[LP08]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

it continued to be better at h5 

Maybe I'm way off but I don't think we want flatter out front?  This thing undoubtly will be west of us.  We should want amp and quicker phasing to send a much better swath of overrunning before we lose thermals.  The two part, although slightly colder to start, robs moisture.  Similar to what the Euro showed at 12z.

[TSSN+]

The precip that run just looks sketch to me it’s so blotchy. Toss

 

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was kicking this around when some of the 12z runs showed this trend...and now I am pretty sure... less amped is not necessarily what we want anymore.  Unless it goes full on GFS, the other less amp solutions are just ending up warmer and dryer because there is less intense WAA precip, which cools the column and holds off the advance of the WAA for a time.  So these slightly weaker solutions are actually worse...yea the track might be slightly better...but it fails to change the changeover time significantly and it just cuts down on the thump before we flip.  

I was thinking that as well. Kinda stuck between a rock and a hard place with this one. Get the thump but go quicker to mix. Less amped is colder but lose the precip.

[GreyHat]

Has all data been put into the models or hasn't enough sampling been done?

[LP08]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

The precip that run just looks sketch to me it’s so blotchy. Toss

 

 I mean it makes sense if the H5 is right?  More positviely tilted trough and flatter flow will not get the moisture transport we need.  Ok done with Nam nitpicking hah

[Eskimo Joe]

I know it's the NAM, but it's scored last minute events like this in previous times. There were several events in the 2013 - 2015 time frame where it picked up on some mid level warmth of subsidence that even the Euro didn't detect. To see the NAM and some other meso guidance trend lower/more disjointed is a bit of a red flag.