January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[Jebman]

30 minutes ago, wtkidz said:

You could be in Tennessee , Kentucky, or West Virginia and have this. 

 

Two fooking inches of ice.

Damn. That's going to be very, very bad.

Bad, bad Leroy Brown. Baddest accretion in  the whole damn town.

[clskinsfan]

AI a touch slower with onset. Comes in hard. Rough guessing 12 hours of snow before the flip. Pretty heavy sleet after that. 

[psuhoffman]

AIFS is not a disaster...but over the last 24 hours it went from being one of the best solutions to now maybe the worst at 12z.  Its 8-9" for DC and Baltimore...about 10" up here.  Jack zone shifted quite a bit to our NW.  Looks similar to GGEM with track and thermals 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

AIFS is not a disaster...but over the last 24 hours it went from being one of the best solutions to now maybe the worst at 12z.  Its 8-9" for DC and Baltimore...about 10" up here.  Jack zone shifted quite a bit to our NW.  Looks similar to GGEM with track and thermals 

Actually it's warmer than the GGEM, pushes the 850 about 20 miles further NW than the GGEM.  

[arlwx12]

Noon TV guesses (I guess for snow) for the immediate DC metro area:

Channel 7: 8"-12"as low as 

Channel 9: 8"-12"

The last NWS maps I saw were 9" expected, 10% less than 3", 10% more than 11"

(I don't think that adds in the slop)

[konksw]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

12z AIFS is significantly NW and warmer... 

is it?

[NorthArlington101]

Actually it's warmer than the GGEM, pushes the 850 about 20 miles further NW than the GGEM.  

5”+ inches of snow with the thump then we sleet. That’s where we’re rolling. Better than rain

[stormtracker]

Nothing remarkable so far...

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

AI is 0.4 QPF by 12z and then 0.8 by 18z in DC.  Changeover in between, implies about 6-10 inches in DC with ratios.  Kinda the lower end of what guidance has been showing but acceptable nonetheless. 

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Actually it's warmer than the GGEM, pushes the 850 about 20 miles further NW than the GGEM.  

Lose 700 midday Sunday

[SnowenOutThere]

Pasting over all of this to the thread, will take some time

[stormtracker]

on sfc maps, a little flatter out front...noticeable, but nothing to suggest huge changes

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, jayyy said:

GFS certainly has the full support of its ensembles. This is the literal exact situation we wouldn’t trust its thermals over the euro or NAM nest (inside 48 hrs) though.

6-10+ for the immediate metros and 8-12+ for areas away from 95 seems like a reasonable call at this juncture. Could we see 12-18” up this way? Maybe. But I’m going to play it safe with 8-12 with upside

GFS is often the last to budge and can be very stubborn holding onto a solution. It also lacks support from other guidance at the moment. Im not saying anything definitive but I would be very surprised if the GFS op was leading the way here.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, konksw said:

is it?

It's slower so comparing the same time period doesn't necessarily indicate a trend 

[EHoffman]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's slower so comparing the same time period doesn't necessarily indicate a trend 

Also, he's talking about the wrong model

[psuhoffman]

AIFS trend 

[stormtracker]

Here she comes 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's slower so comparing the same time period doesn't necessarily indicate a trend 

Which probably allows the confluence to leave.

[stormtracker]

 

[NorthArlington101]

EURO def south with the initial WAA pus, at least

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

AIFS trend 

Yeah that's not good...man I just don't wanna lose a warning level snowfall with this at the last minute. 6-10" bare minimum

[stormtracker]

[psuhoffman]

Just now, EHoffman said:

Also, he's talking about the wrong model

yea there's that too lol 

It's just one data point...just one run of one model...but the AIFS trend is not good... 24 hours ago when it was showing what we wanted we were rightfully pointing out how good it's been and that having it on our side was a big deal...so losing it to the more amplified NW camp is not what we want.  But again...it's just one piece of evidence not the whole show... if the op euro and EPS come in good that would outweigh the significance some.  

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

AIFS trend 

La Niña de-amp beginning at 0z?

[stormtracker]

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Looks drier/flatter? 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Which probably allows the confluence to leave.

it ends up speeding back up...in the end it simply trended further NW,  primary hangs on longer...looks kinda like last nights GGEM 

[Eskimo Joe]

10 minutes ago, konksw said:

is it?

We get screwed by the transfer from the primary to the coastal. It causes a lull/minimum in precip. We've seen this happen many times in the past. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

That's not bad based on heights.

[NorthArlington101]

Euro is colder at 850s this run, at least. It’s at least a stop the “bleeding” run