January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[SnowGolfBro]

Cue the Ralph Wiggum NAM GIF lol

[TSSN+]

Nam and euro not far off there’s one main difference and it’s the trailing h5 energy I marked 

 

[winter_warlock]

 If I recall. Doesn't Nam have a warm bias and an over amped bias?

[LVblizzard]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

 If I recall. Doesn't Nam have a warm bias and an over amped bias?

It has more of a “doing things that don’t make sense” bias. And it only gets worse the longer it runs.

[yoda]

Probably will be snowing near DCA just after 7pm Saturday on 12z NAM 

[mob1]

The run-to-run changes out west (even in the short) on all models is wild, and really highlights the complexity of the storm. Oddly enough, the surface depictions are a lot more consistent.

[yoda]

12z NAM h5 60

 

 

[yoda]

Snowing nicely and 15 degrees or so at DCA 03z Sunday on 12z NAM 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z 12K NAM 1am Sat, 7am (colder this run: third picture 7am 6Z);

[Solution Man]

Just now, yoda said:

Snowing nicely and 15 degrees or so at DCA 03z Sunday on 12z NAM 

High ratio stuff

[bncho]

I think the NAM phased better but the confluence was more south hence it's more amped and it's a slight shift south?

[TSSN+]

Not sure how it totally plays out but should be better than 6z for sure 

[yoda]

Starting to really rip across the region by 09z Sunday 

[bncho]

mix line actually a good 50 miles south of 6z

[LP08]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

I think the NAM phased better but the confluence was more south hence it's more amped and it's a slight shift south?

The phase was slower/later too, which helped keep heights lower as well

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

I think the NAM phased better but the confluence was more south hence it's more amped and it's a slight shift south?

No it is less. Energy not as far out in from as it was at 6z 

[bncho]

72 to 75 was.... weird. mix line jumped 100 miles north suddenly?

[Weather Will]

Turns at 10 am.

[Heisy]

Watching the The Weather Channel this morning (don't berate me for that) they said that planes (hurricane hunter type) are going to where the LP is off the coast of CA and also to the Gulf of America to collect high resolution data that will feed the models.  My question to you guru's is how might that information affect the models?

Better in, better out. More accurate current obs data into the wx models should create more accurate forecasting


.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Still plows that primary into the ov and slower to redevelop off coast this run. Alot of balancing out of features that yield a very similar result at the surface. Alas, its the nam at range.

[TSSN+]

Just now, Weather Will said:

Turns at 10 am.

Nam being the Nam my guess that light zone is actually snow. You don’t have a light precip zone in middle of the heavies 

[SnowenOutThere]

NAM was better but still the low end totals as it almost misses the thump for places south of NOVA. I for example get 3 inches of snow which would be... not great

 

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

72 to 75 was.... weird. mix line jumped 100 miles north suddenly?

Warm layers can 100% race north quickly, though I'm still not gonna worry about NAM ptype until tomorrow at 06z at earliest

[TSSN+]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

NAM was better but still the low end totals as it almost misses the thump for places south of NOVA. I for example get 3 inches of snow which would be... not great

 

For it being the Nam it’s not bad lol. 5” on the Nam may as well be 10” on the legit models 

[konksw]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

NAM was better but still the low end totals as it almost misses the thump for places south of NOVA. I for example get 3 inches of snow which would be... not great

 

It is NAM with 2.5 days before onset…

[yoda]

750mb reaches close t0 +4 near DCA at 81 fwiw... sounding is probably very heavy sleet

[Weather Will]

For what it is worth. WB 12Z 12K NAM totals 

[Solution Man]

Paging the Icon

[baltosquid]

Just glad to see the NAM not phase as readily, not concerned about the surface at the edge of its range.

[IUsedToHateCold]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

NAM was better but still the low end totals as it almost misses the thump for places south of NOVA. I for example get 3 inches of snow which would be... not great

 

That's some weird output. No way DCA gets more snow than NW AA county. It's the NAM at range for you...