SnowGolfBro Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Cue the Ralph Wiggum NAM GIF lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Nam and euro not far off there’s one main difference and it’s the trailing h5 energy I marked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 If I recall. Doesn't Nam have a warm bias and an over amped bias? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, winter_warlock said: If I recall. Doesn't Nam have a warm bias and an over amped bias? It has more of a “doing things that don’t make sense” bias. And it only gets worse the longer it runs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Probably will be snowing near DCA just after 7pm Saturday on 12z NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The run-to-run changes out west (even in the short) on all models is wild, and really highlights the complexity of the storm. Oddly enough, the surface depictions are a lot more consistent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 12z NAM h5 60 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Snowing nicely and 15 degrees or so at DCA 03z Sunday on 12z NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 WB 12Z 12K NAM 1am Sat, 7am (colder this run: third picture 7am 6Z); 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, yoda said: Snowing nicely and 15 degrees or so at DCA 03z Sunday on 12z NAM High ratio stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I think the NAM phased better but the confluence was more south hence it's more amped and it's a slight shift south? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Not sure how it totally plays out but should be better than 6z for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Starting to really rip across the region by 09z Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 mix line actually a good 50 miles south of 6z 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, bncho said: I think the NAM phased better but the confluence was more south hence it's more amped and it's a slight shift south? The phase was slower/later too, which helped keep heights lower as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, bncho said: I think the NAM phased better but the confluence was more south hence it's more amped and it's a slight shift south? No it is less. Energy not as far out in from as it was at 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 72 to 75 was.... weird. mix line jumped 100 miles north suddenly? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Turns at 10 am. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Watching the The Weather Channel this morning (don't berate me for that) they said that planes (hurricane hunter type) are going to where the LP is off the coast of CA and also to the Gulf of America to collect high resolution data that will feed the models. My question to you guru's is how might that information affect the models?Better in, better out. More accurate current obs data into the wx models should create more accurate forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Still plows that primary into the ov and slower to redevelop off coast this run. Alot of balancing out of features that yield a very similar result at the surface. Alas, its the nam at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Weather Will said: Turns at 10 am. Nam being the Nam my guess that light zone is actually snow. You don’t have a light precip zone in middle of the heavies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 NAM was better but still the low end totals as it almost misses the thump for places south of NOVA. I for example get 3 inches of snow which would be... not great 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, bncho said: 72 to 75 was.... weird. mix line jumped 100 miles north suddenly? Warm layers can 100% race north quickly, though I'm still not gonna worry about NAM ptype until tomorrow at 06z at earliest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: NAM was better but still the low end totals as it almost misses the thump for places south of NOVA. I for example get 3 inches of snow which would be... not great For it being the Nam it’s not bad lol. 5” on the Nam may as well be 10” on the legit models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: NAM was better but still the low end totals as it almost misses the thump for places south of NOVA. I for example get 3 inches of snow which would be... not great It is NAM with 2.5 days before onset… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 750mb reaches close t0 +4 near DCA at 81 fwiw... sounding is probably very heavy sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 For what it is worth. WB 12Z 12K NAM totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Paging the Icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just glad to see the NAM not phase as readily, not concerned about the surface at the edge of its range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: NAM was better but still the low end totals as it almost misses the thump for places south of NOVA. I for example get 3 inches of snow which would be... not great That's some weird output. No way DCA gets more snow than NW AA county. It's the NAM at range for you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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