January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Yeah was looking at that, looks like it's popping a coastal and doesn't have a primary up in WV/PA.

Winner

[psuhoffman]

0z Nam at 78 is colder/flatter than 18z NAM. 

I don’t think the exact position of the Baja low matters that much assuming it does eventually eject most of the energy. 
 

The confluence matters but the ridging does also. One can offset the other. I think the ridging matters more. There is plenty of cold. Less southerly flow matters more. 
 

I think perhaps the most important and hardest to predict factor is the interaction with the two NS shortwaves, one over the top and the other coming in behind. The icon had one of those features gone and phased fully with the other and that’s why it went off the rails. Looking across guidance the handling of those features seems to be the most significant determinate. 

[LVblizzard]

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Yeah was looking at that, looks like it's popping a coastal and doesn't have a primary up in WV/PA.

Not sure that it wouldn’t take the primary up there in the end. The low is farther south than the globals but it’s also much slower. Those could cancel each other out in the end.

[mitchnick]

Ok, glad we figured this storm out. What's next in the medium range?

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Absolute firehose just pumping in. Already at 1.07” by 84 hr mark with more to come. Unfortunately NAM wrecks us in the upper levels. 

What?

[stormtracker]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Ok, glad we figured this storm out. What's next in the medium range?

lol.   NAM brings joy, but it's sorry as hell.

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What?

Down my way big guy haha! 

[AACOUNTYMD]

Sorry to interrupt, but, can I be happy about the snow potential again? Someone please tell me it is going to happen!


.

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What?

[baltosquid]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Unfortunately damage is probably done when it comes to mixing. I mean we have a closed 700mb low over Oklahoma! Though it is better than its 18z run no matter what.

We had a closed 700mb low over Kansas at 18z 84hr, though!

[jrodd321]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

From 75 to 84 the hp in NY doesnt move an inch

You think it would miss us in the next panels Ralph?

[Interstate]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What?

He is in southern Virginia 

[Ji]

Just now, Ji said:

If Nam already has 7 inches of snow on the ground....we are probably safe for 7 more as the precip gets heavier....at one point do we complain that it turned to mix. After 12 or after 15?

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Down my way big guy haha! 

Yeah man, you guys are probably cooked when it comes to getting an all snow event. I guess a legendary ice storm is a consolation prize . Though I'm at UVA so I'm next to fall. 

[stormtracker]

The magnificent ICON is running.  The dookie it's going to take in the punchbowl will be glorious.

[adelphi_sky]

Is the mix sleet and snow? If so, I still think it's a win. I for one like an ice cap on top of snow that will freeze over for a week or two. Still a win/win.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

We had a closed 700mb low over Kansas at 18z 84hr, though!

Oh I fully agree its better, I'm just saying its not quite gonna save us. One or two more bumps that direction though and its game on even for me.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Down my way big guy haha! 

Got it. My bad, shoulda checked your location.

[Jebman]

He yanked your chain about the upper levels Tracker. He is well south of you lol

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, stormtracker said:

The magnificent ICON is running.  The dookie it's going to take in the punchbowl will be glorious.

Super early on but it has a similar change to the NAM's 18z to 0z with the SW being the ever bit more held back and the NS stuff in the Pac NW being at a slightly less advantageous angle for a phase. 

[bncho]

Is the ICON ingesting the recon data?

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

If Nam already has 7 inches of snow on the ground....we are probably safe for 7 more as the precip gets heavier....at one point do we complain that it turned to mix. After 12 or after 15?

If I get to 14", I'm cool with sleet.  It's going to sleet no matter what, so that would be a win for me.

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, jrodd321 said:

You think it would miss us in the next panels Ralph?

?? 

We are about to get plastered with a thump of snow right after 84

[jaydreb]

Reminds me of the Feb 2015 storm where we got 8” in the Beltway from the thump before the changeover.  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

?? 

We are about to get plastered with a thump of snow right after 84

I'm actually rather impressed it dumps ~7" by early Sunday morning...I mean, wow!

[Nomz]

Does this ICON have the hallowed new data? Or is it just ECMWF and American models

[Ji]

 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

i mean whats he doing in a Dc thread lol

He's part of our region.  I will not let them secede.  That didn't work out for them the last time.

[stormtracker]

Just now, Nomz said:

Does this ICON have the hallowed new data? Or is it just ECMWF and American models

On a serious note, that's a good question since these are all global models.

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Nomz said:

Does this ICON have the hallowed new data? Or is it just ECMWF and American models

I don't think so? That said if it shows a better run yes it absolutely does don't worry about it.