psuhoffman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 0z Nam at 78 is colder/flatter than 18z NAM. I don’t think the exact position of the Baja low matters that much assuming it does eventually eject most of the energy. The confluence matters but the ridging does also. One can offset the other. I think the ridging matters more. There is plenty of cold. Less southerly flow matters more. I think perhaps the most important and hardest to predict factor is the interaction with the two NS shortwaves, one over the top and the other coming in behind. The icon had one of those features gone and phased fully with the other and that’s why it went off the rails. Looking across guidance the handling of those features seems to be the most significant determinate. 9 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Yeah was looking at that, looks like it's popping a coastal and doesn't have a primary up in WV/PA. Not sure that it wouldn’t take the primary up there in the end. The low is farther south than the globals but it’s also much slower. Those could cancel each other out in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Ok, glad we figured this storm out. What's next in the medium range? 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Absolute firehose just pumping in. Already at 1.07” by 84 hr mark with more to come. Unfortunately NAM wrecks us in the upper levels. What? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, mitchnick said: Ok, glad we figured this storm out. What's next in the medium range? lol. NAM brings joy, but it's sorry as hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: What? Down my way big guy haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AACOUNTYMD Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Sorry to interrupt, but, can I be happy about the snow potential again? Someone please tell me it is going to happen! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: What? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Unfortunately damage is probably done when it comes to mixing. I mean we have a closed 700mb low over Oklahoma! Though it is better than its 18z run no matter what. We had a closed 700mb low over Kansas at 18z 84hr, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: From 75 to 84 the hp in NY doesnt move an inch You think it would miss us in the next panels Ralph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: What? He is in southern Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Ji said: If Nam already has 7 inches of snow on the ground....we are probably safe for 7 more as the precip gets heavier....at one point do we complain that it turned to mix. After 12 or after 15? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Down my way big guy haha! Yeah man, you guys are probably cooked when it comes to getting an all snow event. I guess a legendary ice storm is a consolation prize . Though I'm at UVA so I'm next to fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The magnificent ICON is running. The dookie it's going to take in the punchbowl will be glorious. 3 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Is the mix sleet and snow? If so, I still think it's a win. I for one like an ice cap on top of snow that will freeze over for a week or two. Still a win/win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: We had a closed 700mb low over Kansas at 18z 84hr, though! Oh I fully agree its better, I'm just saying its not quite gonna save us. One or two more bumps that direction though and its game on even for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Down my way big guy haha! Got it. My bad, shoulda checked your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 He yanked your chain about the upper levels Tracker. He is well south of you lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, stormtracker said: The magnificent ICON is running. The dookie it's going to take in the punchbowl will be glorious. Super early on but it has a similar change to the NAM's 18z to 0z with the SW being the ever bit more held back and the NS stuff in the Pac NW being at a slightly less advantageous angle for a phase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Is the ICON ingesting the recon data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, Ji said: If Nam already has 7 inches of snow on the ground....we are probably safe for 7 more as the precip gets heavier....at one point do we complain that it turned to mix. After 12 or after 15? If I get to 14", I'm cool with sleet. It's going to sleet no matter what, so that would be a win for me. 6 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, jrodd321 said: You think it would miss us in the next panels Ralph? ?? We are about to get plastered with a thump of snow right after 84 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Reminds me of the Feb 2015 storm where we got 8” in the Beltway from the thump before the changeover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: ?? We are about to get plastered with a thump of snow right after 84 I'm actually rather impressed it dumps ~7" by early Sunday morning...I mean, wow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Does this ICON have the hallowed new data? Or is it just ECMWF and American models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Ji said: i mean whats he doing in a Dc thread lol He's part of our region. I will not let them secede. That didn't work out for them the last time. 5 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Nomz said: Does this ICON have the hallowed new data? Or is it just ECMWF and American models On a serious note, that's a good question since these are all global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Nomz said: Does this ICON have the hallowed new data? Or is it just ECMWF and American models I don't think so? That said if it shows a better run yes it absolutely does don't worry about it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, bncho said: Is the ICON ingesting the recon data? nobody knows that the icon is except for people on this forum....so no 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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