January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[jayyy]

Only has to hold for three and a half more days. What could go wrong?

Good news is that storms don’t follow what models do. Models simply guess.

[MickeyTim6533]

Glad to have joined this site, excited about this storm and all the insight on here from everyone!

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

 

We’re closing in on clearing the graveyard window and 12” is still on the table.

[Weather Will]

WB 21Z NBM shaved some snow off far southern zones compared to 18Z.

[SnowenOutThere]

20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Agree. Want some interaction but not a full phase- keep the flow flattish and cold.

One of the highlights of my discussion today will be the increased NS we’ve seen in the past 24 hours 

[stormtracker]

Ok, Euro rollin...

[wxmvpete]

32 minutes ago, batmanbrad said:

latest discussion from WPC:

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Jan 22 2026 - 00Z Sun Jan 25 2026

***Major Winter Storm To Bring Significant Impacts To The South
 Friday Through This Weekend, Expanding Up The East Coast Saturday
 Night Into Sunday***

...Southern Rockies, Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Mid-South,
Southern & Central Appalachians, & Mid-Atlantic...
Days 2-3...

The ingredients for the impending major winter storm begin to take
shape Thursday night. A broad upper trough located off Baja
California will work in tandem with a ridge axis near Mexico to
direct a rich plume of tropical East Pacific moisture into the
Southern Rockies and Plains. At the same time, an arctic front
ushers in the coldest temperatures this season across the Great
Plains with a highly anomalous dome of arctic high pressure
building in over the North Central U.S.. As high pressure rushes
south, easterly upslope flow induced between the high pressure to
the north and lower pressure near California will cause upslope
flow into the higher terrain of the CO and NM Rockies with lighter
snowfall in the central High Plains. WPC probabilities show high
chances (>70%) for snowfall above 9,000ft in the CO/NM Rockies
through Saturday afternoon.

Precipitation will blossom over much of KS, OK, and TX Friday,
starting as rain across much of TX initially, but look for precipitation to
transition to snow over KS, northern OK, and the TX Panhandle by
Friday afternoon and evening. Farther south, strengthening low-
level WAA will over-run the incoming sub-freezing layer in the
lowest 2,000ft of the atmosphere from West Texas to as far east as
the Mid-South. Sleet will become more prevalent over the Red River
Valley, north-central AR, and into western TN, while freezing rain
is the primary preip type from the TX Hill Country through the
ArkLaTex and as far east as the TN Valley. Heavy sleet is possible
in some of these areas with multiple inches of sleet possible
through Saturday. The slow progression of the upper trough over
Baja California and the bitterly cold arctic air-mass anchored
over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS is a recipe ripe for
prolonged freezing rain from central TX to as far east as the
southern Appalachians through 00Z Sunday. WPC probabilities show
concerningly high probabilities (50-70%) for ice accumulations
through 00Z Sunday over one-quarter inch. The areas of greatest
concern are over the ArkLaTx, southern AR, northern LA, northern
MS/AL, and southern TN where low-to-moderate chances (30-50%)
exist for over one-half inch of ice. While this discussion is
geared to the short term (ending 00Z Sunday) the ice in all these
areas are forecast to continue through Saturday night and even into
Sunday. There is great concern for extensive tree damage and power
outages from central TX on east through the Mid-South and into the
Southern Appalachians into Sunday.

Farther north, the air-mass through the depth of the atmospheric
column remains cold enough to support all snow from the Central
Plains on east through the Ozarks and across northern TN and much
of KY beginning Friday evening in the Plains, then into the TN/OH
Valleys Saturday morning. By midday and into Saturday afternoon,
periods of snow will reach the southern and central Appalachians
and potentially the VA/NC Piedmont. Snowfall rates topping 1"/hr
are likely in areas just north of the strongest 850-700mb FGEN
zone and vertical velocities are highest in a highly saturated
dendritic growth zone in the Central Plains and OH Valley. The
very cold temperatures over KS on east through MS and into the OH
Valley will cause SLRs to range anywhere from between 12-18:1 with
the higher SLRs over KS. WPC probabilities through 00Z Sunday
depict high chances (>70%) for >4" of snow over central and
southern KS, much of northern OK, the TX Panhandle, and into the
Ozarks of northern AR and southern MO. The best chances for >8" of
snowfall reside over the Ozarks where moderate chance probabilities
(40-60%) are present.

Similar to the ice, the snow will by no means be over given the
extensive plume of anomalous moisture emanating out of the East
Pacific. By Saturday night, southerly flow out of the Gulf will
continue to direct copious amounts of moisture into the eastern
U.S., resulting in a highly disruptive and dangerous winter storm
from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic. WPC continues to issue Key
Messages for this winter storm and a link to them can be found
below.

I know the guy who wrote that

[stormtracker]

So nothing huge, but at 48...closed low still where at 12z it was open.  These are just kind of noise level differences

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, wxmvpete said:

I know the guy who wrote that

How much do we bribe for an Americanwx reference...specifically the full government name of one of the owners?  My friend wants to know.   Could be a few lucky for life lotto tickets in this for you/him.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO AI did tick a little NW with rain/snow line.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, wxmvpete said:

I know the guy who wrote that

Nice read, we are lucky to have you red taggers in here

[stormtracker]

Nothing really big still at 60.   h5 is the smallest of ass hair flatter but sfc fields are just the tiniest of ass hair ampd

[hsq]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO AI did tick a little NW with rain/snow line.

Can you or someone post the IP and ZR map for this one? I know we shouldn't read too much in but its becoming a legit concern for the S zones. TY. 

[stormtracker]

So I'm missing panels before and it jumped to 99...looks the same maybe a smidge warmer upstairs.  Again...I don't have anything between 84 and 93

[stormtracker]

[wxman]

Just now, CAPE said:

Lots of dirty talk in there. Straight up (weather) porn

Reminds me of a line from the old eastern days while tracking a big storm at around 4am: "we're looking at the wrong models!"

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Gotta mentally get on board for the sleet storm soon.

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, hsq said:

Can you or someone post the IP and ZR map for this one? I know we shouldn't read too much in but its becoming a legit concern for the S zones. TY. 

 

2 minutes ago, hsq said:

Can you or someone post the IP and ZR map for this one? I know we shouldn't read too much in but it's becoming a legit concern for the S zones. TY. 

WB AI does not have ice maps.

[GreyHat]

13 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 21Z NBM shaved some snow off far southern zones compared to 18Z.

Warm mid levels? Hp weak and moving out of the way? Stronger system move NW?

[batmanbrad]

6 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Nice read, we are lucky to have you red taggers in here

I agree, was only too happy to post his excellent read in here.   Look forward to Peter's continued discussions about this storm assuming he will still be "the man" for at least some of the next several days?

[stormtracker]

I dunno...but I know that's close or eh

 

[hsq]

Just now, Weather Will said:

 

WB AI does not have ice maps.

Copy thanks

[stormtracker]

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Cold sleet for I-95 and points south and east. Very PDII.

[WxUSAF]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Cold sleet for I-95 and points south and east. Very PDII.

Looks pretty similar to 12z I think. I’d guess that again most of the precip is over when mix starts. As @psuhoffmanwas saying earlier, they’re linked. Heavier precip helps keep the column cold.

[GreyHat]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Gotta mentally get on board for the sleet storm soon.

Freezing line just below Dover but can most likely see ice and maybe freezing rain from there through parts of SNJ.

[stormtracker]

[Amped]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Cold sleet for I-95 and points south and east. Very PDII.

There is warm air all the way up to 700mb so the sleet line could be well north of there.

[stormtracker]

Panels are out of order because believe it or not that's how they come out on SV.  Wild shit after like hour 78

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

This one getting away from us in a hurry, time to just mentally accept a big cold mixed bag and roll with it I think.  Gonna be fun either way.