“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[Hoth]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Everyone wants to start off their day with an Iconic Kuchie Koo

Effin' A. Where do I sign?

[wx_observer]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who do folks get so wild about the NWS maps? They’re not the governing voice and it’s well known they rip and read the HREF/ NBM

I'm not a met and I'm not nearly as knowledgeable as most in here.  But for me, NWS has historically been what I considered the most objective forecast source, not focused on ratings or hype or profit.  They took the data and made a forecast based on an educated interpretation of that data, and explain their rationale in the discussions.  

What is the NBM?  The discussions I read seem like they are written and signed by specific employees.  

[dryslot]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Wow, that seems to have gotten dramatically better for Maine.

It has the last 3 runs of all modeling.

[bristolri_wx]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who do folks get so wild about the NWS maps? They’re not the governing voice and it’s well known they rip and read the HREF/ NBM

Why do you bring this up every single time NWS/NOAA is discussed?  They are a group of mets like any other, putting out a forecast.  Your criticism is valid, but the subtle undertones of your wording are noted.

[TheMainer]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

 

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

It has the last 3 runs of all modeling.

Also looks like the duration has increased. Last night they were saying a start here at 5 PM and now they’re saying 3 PM. But I think it’s gonna be more like 12 or one because that usually happens with these kinds of storms. But they have it snowing until early evening Monday so they are thinking more than 24 hours. I imagine along the coast or closer to the coast where you are, the duration could be even longer.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, wx_observer said:

I'm not a met and I'm not nearly as knowledgeable as most in here.  But for me, NWS has historically been what I considered the most objective forecast source, not focused on ratings or hype or profit.  They took the data and made a forecast based on an educated interpretation of that data, and explain their rationale in the discussions.  

What is the NBM?  The discussions I read seem like they are written and signed by specific employees.  

National Blend Of Models. It takes certain models and blends them all together 

[moneypitmike]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

What a weenie run.  Shoud we be uding the kuch?  J never knoe when ine us more useful than the ither.

 

Can you pist a qpf one?  Tia

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Why do you bring this up every single time NWS/NOAA is discussed?  They are a group of mets like any other, putting out a forecast.  Your criticism is valid, but the subtle undertones of your wording are noted.

I find the office up here, GYX, it’s pretty darn good. Sometimes I think they’re going to be way off and then in the end their forecast is usually on target

[dryslot]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Also looks like the duration has increased. Last night they were saying a start here at 5 PM and now they’re saying 3 PM. But I think it’s gonna be more like 12 or one because that usually happens with these kinds of storms. But they have it snowing until early evening Monday so they are thinking more than 24 hours. I imagine along the coast or closer to the coast where you are, the duration could be even longer.

If it starts sooner it will end sooner too, Its all relevant with the duration.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Why do you bring this up every single time NWS/NOAA is discussed?  They are a group of mets like any other, putting out a forecast.  Your criticism is valid, but the subtle undertones of your wording are noted.

Subtle undertones? Not sure what you’re insinuating. Just making a valid observation. No more , no less . 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

What a weenie run.  Shoud we be uding the kuch?  J never knoe when ine us more useful than the ither.

 

Can you pist a qpf one?  Tia

This is going to be in the 14-15:1 range up here for most of the duration.

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We take. Excellent trends up our way. 

[bristolri_wx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Subtle undertones? Not sure what you’re insinuating. Just making a valid observation. No more , no less . 

"not the governing voice"

[Hoth]

I'm stoked for this, but it's a trifle disappointing that even with a fantastic antecedent airmass we still can't seem to escape taint down here. It's been ages since we've had a bona fide major that stayed snow start to finish.

[dendrite]

Toss those kuch maps…especially in NNE

[dryslot]

I'm going with 10-14" here, This is still a SWFE unless you get a secondary to develop its has a ceiling.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

"not the governing voice"

Meaning they don’t have the final say , they aren’t the go to end all be all  Unless of course you choose that as your main source. 

[ScituateMA]

I just dont see this verifying. Its still nice to see though. 

The storms where the south shore jackpots always tend to be huge systems. 

[mahk_webstah]

I was tempted to think we might be more like 12 to 16 but I have seen on a number of the precipitation outputs that they are are lower numbers in the Merrimack Valley like often happens due to banding to our south or north. So I’m also thinking about 10 to 14. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Close to what I’m thinking 

[UnitedWx]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Subtle undertones? Not sure what you’re insinuating. Just making a valid observation. No more , no less . 

Agreed. I could be much more harsh than subtle undertones when it comes to NWS but I won't. How's that for subtle LOL

[dryslot]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

I was tempted to think we might be more like 12 to 16 but I have seen on a number of the precipitation outputs that they are are lower numbers in the Merrimack Valley like often happens due to banding to our south or north. So I’m also thinking about 10 to 14. 

I think this is a good opener for GYX.

[UnitedWx]

For my areas I'm thinking 12 to 18. What's nice with this system,  if it comes to fruition is that it's apparently trying to spread the love in quite a large area. Love to see it

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Agreed. I could be much more harsh than subtle undertones when it comes to NWS but I won't. How's that for subtle LOL

Yea. Our fed agencies are an absolute train wreck these days…I wonder why that is. 

[EastonSN+]

When's the last time Maine stole North Carolina's snowstorm?

More sleet further north on the models this morning. 2 days to go for northern trends - sleet's to Mains lol?

[TheMainer]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I think this is a good opener for GYX.

Euro got better up here, CMC is fairly steady, but icon took a big step towards the GFS which makes me nervous. I'm fine with 6-8 inches and would be thrilled, less than that and it'll be pretty depressing, haha. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

When's the last time Maine stole North Carolina's snowstorm?

More sleet further north on the models this morning. 2 days to go for northern trends - sleet's to Mains lol?

Why I think 10-14” is the max in swct. We’ll Be seeing the sleet line make ir’s way to the pike by tomorrow…

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

When's the last time Maine stole North Carolina's snowstorm?

More sleet further north on the models this morning. 2 days to go for northern trends - sleet's to Mains lol?

Doubt we would see sleet up here with this airmass but i wouldn't rule it out further south, I know what the tendencies are in these.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, TheMainer said:

Euro got better up here, CMC is fairly steady, but icon took a big step towards the GFS which makes me nervous. I'm fine with 6-8 inches and would be thrilled, less than that and it'll be pretty depressing, haha. 

I have no concerns to what the ICON has, But the GFS has been slowing ticking the qpf up for us, Also need to keep in mind, This is going to be some high ratio fluff so you can get more snow with less qpf.