“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[Prismshine Productions]

I think we're regionally back..funny how out winter's mirror the Pats. Maybe Kraft owns the winter and John Henry does payroll.

As a Bills fan I swear to God I will root for the Pats every playoff if it means good snowfall

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

That trend is more worrisome if we had a garbage airmass.

[dryslot]

Ultimately, Its going to come down to how far north at the surface does the SLP get to bring the mix line further north then being modeled right now, Euro gets it up to about LI after a front end thump. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is the kind of trend that's been fatal the past several years BC the airmass has always sucked. Different ballgame now IMHO. We have margin for error.

[Damage In Tolland]

12.5” here since Saturday . Pretty solid pack development. Just get thru today and then hopefully feet this weekend 

https://imgur.com/a/n2FFvkq#O3ok1It

https://imgur.com/a/n2FFvkq#QIdwPHU

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

That Canadian high position though…

Retreating high is giving the room for north tics on this one.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

Retreating high is giving the room for north tics on this one.

Yea, just dump the ocean all over me in this airmass.

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is a good thing IMO give the antecedent airmass and SSTs only being 40.....the flow is more NE instead of NNE, which limits subsidence just off of the coast and gets more of an 850-mb moisture influx.

Yea agree that this willl be juicier in that regard

The antecedent airmass is also warming…albeit from a very cold to cold in the east. Need to watch it closely…

 

But the typical areas that can’t rely on just the antecedent airmass to stay all snow need to worry about a lot of mixing already.

Cape/islands, coastal RI and CT. 
 

 

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Retreating high is giving the room for north tics on this one.

It’s not done.

[cleetussnow]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

May not end up the worst map in the world

I agree.  He took a couple dozen weenies right across the forehead for it…  I thought it was not out of this world with ratios.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, jbenedet said:

Yea agree that this willl be juicier.

The antecedent airmass is also warming…albeit from a very cold to cold in the east. Need to watch it closely…

 

But the typical areas that can’t rely on just the antecedent airmass to stay all snow need to worry about a lot of mixing already.

Cape/islands, coastal RI and CT. 
 

 

Agreed. Cape/islands and south coast, sure.

[cleetussnow]

4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

As a Bills fan I swear to God I will root for the Pats every playoff if it means good snowfall

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

At least we have something to root for this weekend.  The Bills are in a lot of trouble, thats for sure.

[dryslot]

Just now, jbenedet said:

It’s not done.

As much as some won't like this, I agree, GFS right now is on the southern flank.

[jbenedet]

To me the cold is dumping increasingly in the central conus and much less so in the east. The -AO is legit.

That will also give fuel to the primary to hold on longer “bend back” than latest guidance.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

I agree.  He took a couple dozen weenies right across the forehead for it…  I thought it was not out of this world with ratios.

May ask him to loan it to me for First Call if the kids are off the rails tonight.

[The 4 Seasons]

17 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

when did it go to 72? I think it use to be 36 then 48

@HIPPYVALLEY Watches coming this pm region wide. 100%. OKX almost put them up this morning but they stopped at the PHI CWA.  And based on how much they love the NBM im guessing numbers are going to pretty high.

Considered hoisting a Winter Storm Watch regionwide with this
update, though after collaboration with neighboring offices,
decided to hold off with this package given the onset of the
event is still around 72 hours out, and changes to the forecast
this far out are likely. That said, confidence has only
increased in an impactful winter storm to produce a significant
snowfall to the region on Sunday, lingering into at least Sunday
night.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

To me the cold is dumping increasingly in the central conus and much less so in the east. The -AO is legit.

That will also give fuel to the primary to hold on longer “bend back” than latest guidance.

Maybe conceivably impact south of about I 84 even...but I think pike is safe.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

May ask him to loan it to me for First Call if the kids are off the rails tonight.

This one may not be to hard map actually, You can do a broad brush on the bulk of it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

This one may not be to hard map actually, You can do a broad brush on the bulk of it.

Said the same, exact thing to myself last night, as I sat naked at the dinning room table gathering my thoughts after the fam was in bed.

[ineedsnow]

[jbenedet]

The 6z AI GFS has completely lost the mid level -height anoms in the east now.

Also the long wave ridge axis is like 300 miles west of Washington state now..

 

[Masswx]

Very concerned I mix with this trend

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, Masswx said:

Very concerned I mix with this trend

At worst 95% of your precip will be snow. I have a bit more to worry about after the initial thump. Euro still looks decent despite changing over. 

All bets are off if the trend to keep the primary stronger and further north persists

[weatherwiz]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is the kind of trend that's been fatal the past several years BC the airmass has always sucked. Different ballgame now IMHO. We have margin for error.

Given the airmass, the trend could actually be a significant benefit to us, at least on the mesoscale level when it comes time to pinning down banding and what the potential amounts may be

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

At worst 95% of your precip will be snow. I have a bit more to worry about after the initial l. Euro still looks decent despite changing over 

Any brief mix here if it does will go back to snow as CF moves through and winds aloft still out of NE. You should do well even if you flip for a few hours.  Much better look there vs outer cape

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is a good thing IMO give the antecedent airmass and SSTs only being 40.....the flow is more NE instead of NNE, which limits subsidence just off of the coast and gets more of an 850-mb moisture influx.

 

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, just dump the ocean all over me in this airmass.

Same page.

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Given the airmass, the trend could actually be a significant benefit to us, at least on the mesoscale level when it comes time to pinning down banding and what the potential amounts may be

 

[Damage In Tolland]

No one in SNE is mixing except maybe CC . This is a frigid storm wire to wire for most . 24-36 hours straight of snow 

[CoastalWx]

Hoping for some of those EPS members having back SE of ACK and then east of cape. 

[Typhoon Tip]

yup ... nothing's gonna to happen here  

[Baroclinic Zone]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I haven't compared the two meteorologically speaking, per se, but this system anecdotally reminds me of the 2/15/15 event for some reason.

I’d have to dig back on that one to see