1/24-1/25 Major Winter Storm - S. IL, IN, and OH

[michsnowfreak]

Just now, Stevo6899 said:

Wow I was expecting December to have alot less. Most of those must've occured in the early 2000's. Thanks for doing that.

No prob, and yes the 2000s were December-heavy.

[beavis1729]

2 hours ago, Danny8 said:

Im heading to family in Detroit area tomorrow morning for the week, hoping to get in some good cross country skiing. However like Beavis I was also out for a walk just to feel the -9 in Chicago this morning lol

 Was a beautiful morning, -12 and windy...and crystal clear deep blue skies. Perfect for a jeb walk.

I'd be in heaven if we had 4-6" of snow cover like in Detroit, but at least it looks and feels like winter imby...and I mean only literally in my backyard. There's 1-1.5" of snow cover, which itself is a bit annoying as it probably mitigated the impact of the arctic outbreak here and upstream, and there are bare spots on the roadways and other areas, like under trees. But as long as I'm actually looking out my window, it's all good.

While I agree this has been a bit better winter than the past 3, the snow pack has been abysmal since the melt around Dec. 10th. The biggest problem to me was the non-white Christmas...which seemed like a good possibility after getting 15" of snow between late Nov. and 12/7 or so. Or, at least it should be. While it has been cold with small bouts of snow over the past few weeks, we shouldn't be happy with essentially zero days with 3"+ snow cover from Dec. 10th through Jan. 31st. That's the heart of winter, and a 3" snow pack isn't really asking for much. Still more time left...and as long as the most obnoxious winter pattern in history (the dreaded chinook pattern) is gone, things should hopefully get a bit more interesting soon. The chinook pattern cut off all return flow from the gulf, and the ridge out west was always lurking...so even when you got a bit of snow, 1-2 mild days would melt it. Unfortunately, that general pattern lasted for 4-5 weeks.

I mentioned this elsewhere...but if I lived in MT, WY, CO, or SD, I would be going crazy. They've had no winter so far.  At least we've had a little bit here. And I don't really pay attention to actual seasonal snowfall totals. What matters is the look and feel, measured by either SDDs or the # of wintry days (which are defined as days with 2"+ snow cover and a high temp in the 20s or colder). We haven't had very many, if any, wintry days since the melt in early Dec. If we had a decent snowpack built up over time, building off the great early start this season, then the delays between snow events would be more tolerable.

[OHweather]

Just a few random thoughts...there've definitely been small but additive bumps SE over the last several runs of the non-GFS guidance. It's largely been caused by the PV over the Upper Midwest/Plains ahead of the storm refusing to lift out at all, along with subtle trends for perhaps a slower ejection of the storm into the Plains (lets the PV press in more ahead of it) and some lingering run-to-run disagreement over how well the storm phases over the southern Plains. Overall, I don't expect more than relatively small adjustments from here on in, but a quick look at how guidance has been trending and what still could change in my eyes...

This is the European ensemble mean 500mb heights for the last several runs valid at 12z Sunday. There still are subtle run-to-run adjustments both with the exact placement of the PV and with how well-phased the trough ejecting into the Plains is...to me, the there haven't been substantial trends either way with the PV while the trough has trended perhaps a bit less phased overall. Heights are still rising plenty ahead of the storm and there may be room for a subtle trend back northwest if we see a better phase, but unless we see trends towards the PV lifting out quicker I don't think it makes a huge difference for those who are on the outside looking in for heavy snow.

This is just the 500mb height and vorticity trends from the operational Euro...there are not clear trends towards a more or less phased solution overall, though there may be a slight trend for the trough to eject into the Plains slower, which in theory could give the PV a little more of a chance to press in ahead of it. 

The red circles are the main pieces of energy phasing together with this storm...the Baja low and shortwave diving into Canada have not been fully sampled yet, but will become increasingly sampled in the next sets of 0z/12z runs. There may be some opportunity for trends regarding how well the storm phases over those next cycles, though my guess is there won't be a significant trend either way. The shortwave circled in blue isn't really phasing into this, but will help dictate how much the PV presses into the upper Midwest/Plains Lakes north of the storm. My guess is we won't see a notable trend with the PV from here on out, though I've been surprised before. 

Overall, I think it's the PV over the Plains that is skunking those who needed more of a NW trend than we got and it doesn't seem like that's changing as the storm becomes more imminent. There is still room for subtle trends based on a quicker/slower phase, though any northwest trends won't be huge. It wouldn't shock me if there's another bump SE before we're done, though I personally don't want that if we can avoid it... 

[Chicago Storm]

the run-to-run changes 'under the hood' aloft are fun to watch on any given model.

see the nam 12z vs 18z, just as a recent example. really struggling to resolve things.

[michsnowfreak]

14 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

 Was a beautiful morning, -12 and windy...and crystal clear deep blue skies. Perfect for a jeb walk.

I'd be in heaven if we had 4-6" of snow cover like in Detroit, but at least it looks and feels like winter imby...and I mean only literally in my backyard. There's 1-1.5" of snow cover, which itself is a bit annoying as it probably mitigated the impact of the arctic outbreak here and upstream, and there are bare spots on the roadways and other areas, like under trees. But as long as I'm actually looking out my window, it's all good.

While I agree this has been a bit better winter than the past 3, the snow pack has been abysmal since the melt around Dec. 10th. The biggest problem to me was the non-white Christmas...which seemed like a good possibility after getting 15" of snow between late Nov. and 12/7 or so. Or, at least it should be. While it has been cold with small bouts of snow over the past few weeks, we shouldn't be happy with essentially zero days with 3"+ snow cover from Dec. 10th through Jan. 31st. That's the heart of winter, and a 3" snow pack isn't really asking for much. Still more time left...and as long as the most obnoxious winter pattern in history (the dreaded chinook pattern) is gone, things should hopefully get a bit more interesting soon. The chinook pattern cut off all return flow from the gulf, and the ridge out west was always lurking...so even when you got a bit of snow, 1-2 mild days would melt it. Unfortunately, that general pattern lasted for 4-5 weeks.

I mentioned this elsewhere...but if I lived in MT, WY, CO, or SD, I would be going crazy. They've had no winter so far.  At least we've had a little bit here. And I don't really pay attention to actual seasonal snowfall totals. What matters is the look and feel, measured by either SDDs or the # of wintry days (which are defined as days with 2"+ snow cover and a high temp in the 20s or colder). We haven't had very many, if any, wintry days since the melt in early Dec. If we had a decent snowpack built up over time, building off the great early start this season, then the delays between snow events would be more tolerable.

I have this weird feeling that Chicago is gonna get a huge march snowstorm or snow blitz that causes a very bookended season and makes for a solid snowier than avg winter despite a lot of zzz for you guys during actual winter.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

see the nam 12z vs 18z, just as a recent example. really struggling to resolve things.

Damn that's a spicy nw jump on the 18z Nam 

[Chicago Storm]

12 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Just a few random thoughts...there've definitely been small but additive bumps SE over the last several runs of the non-GFS guidance. It's largely been caused by the PV over the Upper Midwest/Plains ahead of the storm refusing to lift out at all, along with subtle trends for perhaps a slower ejection of the storm into the Plains (lets the PV press in more ahead of it) and some lingering run-to-run disagreement over how well the storm phases over the southern Plains. Overall, I don't expect more than relatively small adjustments from here on in, but a quick look at how guidance has been trending and what still could change in my eyes...

 

This is the European ensemble mean 500mb heights for the last several runs valid at 12z Sunday. There still are subtle run-to-run adjustments both with the exact placement of the PV and with how well-phased the trough ejecting into the Plains is...to me, the there haven't been substantial trends either way with the PV while the trough has trended perhaps a bit less phased overall. Heights are still rising plenty ahead of the storm and there may be room for a subtle trend back northwest if we see a better phase, but unless we see trends towards the PV lifting out quicker I don't think it makes a huge difference for those who are on the outside looking in for heavy snow.

 

This is just the 500mb height and vorticity trends from the operational Euro...there are not clear trends towards a more or less phased solution overall, though there may be a slight trend for the trough to eject into the Plains slower, which in theory could give the PV a little more of a chance to press in ahead of it. 

 

The red circles are the main pieces of energy phasing together with this storm...the Baja low and shortwave diving into Canada have not been fully sampled yet, but will becoming increasingly sampled in the next sets of 0z/12z runs. There may be some opportunity for trends regarding how well the storm phases over those next cycles, though my guess is there won't be a significant trend either way. The shortwave circled in blue isn't really phasing into this, but will help dictate how much the PV presses into the upper Midwest/Plains Lakes north of the storm. My guess is we won't see a notable trend with the PV from here on out, though I've been surprised before. 

Overall, I think it's the PV over the Plains that is skunking those who needed more of a NW trend than we got and it doesn't seem like that's changing as the storm becomes more imminent. There is still room for subtle trends based on a quicker/slower phase, though any northwest trends won't be huge. It wouldn't shock me if there's enough bump SE before we're done, though I personally don't want that if we can avoid it... 

solid assessment, as always.

are you still at cle?

[mimillman]

19 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

 Was a beautiful morning, -12 and windy...and crystal clear deep blue skies. Perfect for a jeb walk.

I'd be in heaven if we had 4-6" of snow cover like in Detroit, but at least it looks and feels like winter imby...and I mean only literally in my backyard. There's 1-1.5" of snow cover, which itself is a bit annoying as it probably mitigated the impact of the arctic outbreak here and upstream, and there are bare spots on the roadways and other areas, like under trees. But as long as I'm actually looking out my window, it's all good.

While I agree this has been a bit better winter than the past 3, the snow pack has been abysmal since the melt around Dec. 10th. The biggest problem to me was the non-white Christmas...which seemed like a good possibility after getting 15" of snow between late Nov. and 12/7 or so. Or, at least it should be. While it has been cold with small bouts of snow over the past few weeks, we shouldn't be happy with essentially zero days with 3"+ snow cover from Dec. 10th through Jan. 31st. That's the heart of winter, and a 3" snow pack isn't really asking for much. Still more time left...and as long as the most obnoxious winter pattern in history (the dreaded chinook pattern) is gone, things should hopefully get a bit more interesting soon. The chinook pattern cut off all return flow from the gulf, and the ridge out west was always lurking...so even when you got a bit of snow, 1-2 mild days would melt it. Unfortunately, that general pattern lasted for 4-5 weeks.

I mentioned this elsewhere...but if I lived in MT, WY, CO, or SD, I would be going crazy. They've had no winter so far.  At least we've had a little bit here. And I don't really pay attention to actual seasonal snowfall totals. What matters is the look and feel, measured by either SDDs or the # of wintry days (which are defined as days with 2"+ snow cover and a high temp in the 20s or colder). We haven't had very many, if any, wintry days since the melt in early Dec. If we had a decent snowpack built up over time, building off the great early start this season, then the delays between snow events would be more tolerable.

This was very well put 

[Baum]

15 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Just a few random thoughts...there've definitely been small but additive bumps SE over the last several runs of the non-GFS guidance. It's largely been caused by the PV over the Upper Midwest/Plains ahead of the storm refusing to lift out at all, along with subtle trends for perhaps a slower ejection of the storm into the Plains (lets the PV press in more ahead of it) and some lingering run-to-run disagreement over how well the storm phases over the southern Plains. Overall, I don't expect more than relatively small adjustments from here on in, but a quick look at how guidance has been trending and what still could change in my eyes...

This is the European ensemble mean 500mb heights for the last several runs valid at 12z Sunday. There still are subtle run-to-run adjustments both with the exact placement of the PV and with how well-phased the trough ejecting into the Plains is...to me, the there haven't been substantial trends either way with the PV while the trough has trended perhaps a bit less phased overall. Heights are still rising plenty ahead of the storm and there may be room for a subtle trend back northwest if we see a better phase, but unless we see trends towards the PV lifting out quicker I don't think it makes a huge difference for those who are on the outside looking in for heavy snow.

This is just the 500mb height and vorticity trends from the operational Euro...there are not clear trends towards a more or less phased solution overall, though there may be a slight trend for the trough to eject into the Plains slower, which in theory could give the PV a little more of a chance to press in ahead of it. 

The red circles are the main pieces of energy phasing together with this storm...the Baja low and shortwave diving into Canada have not been fully sampled yet, but will becoming increasingly sampled in the next sets of 0z/12z runs. There may be some opportunity for trends regarding how well the storm phases over those next cycles, though my guess is there won't be a significant trend either way. The shortwave circled in blue isn't really phasing into this, but will help dictate how much the PV presses into the upper Midwest/Plains Lakes north of the storm. My guess is we won't see a notable trend with the PV from here on out, though I've been surprised before. 

Overall, I think it's the PV over the Plains that is skunking those who needed more of a NW trend than we got and it doesn't seem like that's changing as the storm becomes more imminent. There is still room for subtle trends based on a quicker/slower phase, though any northwest trends won't be huge. It wouldn't shock me if there's enough bump SE before we're done, though I personally don't want that if we can avoid it... 

Thank you for a polite and cruel summary as to why I’m screwed. But do appreciate the solid analysis. 

[OHweather]

5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

solid assessment, as always.

are you still at cle?

I'm still at cle yes

1 minute ago, Baum said:

Thank you for a polite and cruel summary as to why I’m screwed. But do appreciate the solid analysis. 

Heh, if it does end up phasing quicker (which the 18z NAM tried to do) you may still be in play for some accumulation. But there isn't great news for a more significant trend in that direction IMO 

[AWMT30]

21 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Just a few random thoughts...there've definitely been small but additive bumps SE over the last several runs of the non-GFS guidance. It's largely been caused by the PV over the Upper Midwest/Plains ahead of the storm refusing to lift out at all, along with subtle trends for perhaps a slower ejection of the storm into the Plains (lets the PV press in more ahead of it) and some lingering run-to-run disagreement over how well the storm phases over the southern Plains. Overall, I don't expect more than relatively small adjustments from here on in, but a quick look at how guidance has been trending and what still could change in my eyes...

This is the European ensemble mean 500mb heights for the last several runs valid at 12z Sunday. There still are subtle run-to-run adjustments both with the exact placement of the PV and with how well-phased the trough ejecting into the Plains is...to me, the there haven't been substantial trends either way with the PV while the trough has trended perhaps a bit less phased overall. Heights are still rising plenty ahead of the storm and there may be room for a subtle trend back northwest if we see a better phase, but unless we see trends towards the PV lifting out quicker I don't think it makes a huge difference for those who are on the outside looking in for heavy snow.

This is just the 500mb height and vorticity trends from the operational Euro...there are not clear trends towards a more or less phased solution overall, though there may be a slight trend for the trough to eject into the Plains slower, which in theory could give the PV a little more of a chance to press in ahead of it. 

The red circles are the main pieces of energy phasing together with this storm...the Baja low and shortwave diving into Canada have not been fully sampled yet, but will become increasingly sampled in the next sets of 0z/12z runs. There may be some opportunity for trends regarding how well the storm phases over those next cycles, though my guess is there won't be a significant trend either way. The shortwave circled in blue isn't really phasing into this, but will help dictate how much the PV presses into the upper Midwest/Plains Lakes north of the storm. My guess is we won't see a notable trend with the PV from here on out, though I've been surprised before. 

Overall, I think it's the PV over the Plains that is skunking those who needed more of a NW trend than we got and it doesn't seem like that's changing as the storm becomes more imminent. There is still room for subtle trends based on a quicker/slower phase, though any northwest trends won't be huge. It wouldn't shock me if there's another bump SE before we're done, though I personally don't want that if we can avoid it... 

Nice write up there brother hope you are doing well down there in the Great State of Ohio!!! 

[ILSNOW]

This is supposed to replace the NAM (what is it smoking)

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Hilarious shift

12Z

 

18Z

[A-L-E-K]

1 minute ago, ILSNOW said:

This is supposed to replace the NAM (what is it smoking)

call looking $$$

[ILSNOW]

odds of happening prolly like 13%

[OHweather]

RRFS is cheeks

Although NAM is also cheeks in its own ways

Feels like a one step forward one step backward kind of tradeoff (although turning off most of the HREF members and going to the REFS is an additional step backwards IMO)

[ILSNOW]

latest from Chicago

Main focus is on a synoptic accumulating snow system Saturday
afternoon through Sunday. Some questions remain with exact snow
amounts especially into the Chicago metro area where some lake-
enhancement is likely. Expectation is that we`ll end up with a
general 3-6" accumulation across the southeast third to half of
the cwa, and potentially parts of the Chicago metro where lake-
enhancement occurs, with a sharp gradient to lower amounts
farther to the northwest. Details of where exactly this gradient
lays out will need further refinement, and thus in
collaboration with neighbors to the east and west have held off
on headline issuance just yet. However, we do anticipate the
need for a winter weather advisory for southeast parts of the
forecast area and near the lake as the footprint is further
narrowed down.

Furthermore, a deepening layer of northeasterly low-level flow
is likely to producing some degree of lake- enhancement into
parts of the Chicago metro area, possibly with an additional
small footprint of 3-5" amounts there (perhaps locally 5-6").

 

[SouthOaklandCtyWX]

34 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Just a few random thoughts...there've definitely been small but additive bumps SE over the last several runs of the non-GFS guidance. It's largely been caused by the PV over the Upper Midwest/Plains ahead of the storm refusing to lift out at all, along with subtle trends for perhaps a slower ejection of the storm into the Plains (lets the PV press in more ahead of it) and some lingering run-to-run disagreement over how well the storm phases over the southern Plains. Overall, I don't expect more than relatively small adjustments from here on in, but a quick look at how guidance has been trending and what still could change in my eyes...

This is the European ensemble mean 500mb heights for the last several runs valid at 12z Sunday. There still are subtle run-to-run adjustments both with the exact placement of the PV and with how well-phased the trough ejecting into the Plains is...to me, the there haven't been substantial trends either way with the PV while the trough has trended perhaps a bit less phased overall. Heights are still rising plenty ahead of the storm and there may be room for a subtle trend back northwest if we see a better phase, but unless we see trends towards the PV lifting out quicker I don't think it makes a huge difference for those who are on the outside looking in for heavy snow.

This is just the 500mb height and vorticity trends from the operational Euro...there are not clear trends towards a more or less phased solution overall, though there may be a slight trend for the trough to eject into the Plains slower, which in theory could give the PV a little more of a chance to press in ahead of it. 

The red circles are the main pieces of energy phasing together with this storm...the Baja low and shortwave diving into Canada have not been fully sampled yet, but will becoming increasingly sampled in the next sets of 0z/12z runs. There may be some opportunity for trends regarding how well the storm phases over those next cycles, though my guess is there won't be a significant trend either way. The shortwave circled in blue isn't really phasing into this, but will help dictate how much the PV presses into the upper Midwest/Plains Lakes north of the storm. My guess is we won't see a notable trend with the PV from here on out, though I've been surprised before. 

Overall, I think it's the PV over the Plains that is skunking those who needed more of a NW trend than we got and it doesn't seem like that's changing as the storm becomes more imminent. There is still room for subtle trends based on a quicker/slower phase, though any northwest trends won't be huge. It wouldn't shock me if there's enough bump SE before we're done, though I personally don't want that if we can avoid it... 

Been lurking this subforum for years but only started posting recently, I always learn a lot from your posts they’re much appreciated especially with these kinds of systems. 

[Baum]

4 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

latest from Chicago

Main focus is on a synoptic accumulating snow system Saturday
afternoon through Sunday. Some questions remain with exact snow
amounts especially into the Chicago metro area where some lake-
enhancement is likely. Expectation is that we`ll end up with a
general 3-6" accumulation across the southeast third to half of
the cwa, and potentially parts of the Chicago metro where lake-
enhancement occurs, with a sharp gradient to lower amounts
farther to the northwest. Details of where exactly this gradient
lays out will need further refinement, and thus in
collaboration with neighbors to the east and west have held off
on headline issuance just yet. However, we do anticipate the
need for a winter weather advisory for southeast parts of the
forecast area and near the lake as the footprint is further
narrowed down.

Furthermore, a deepening layer of northeasterly low-level flow
is likely to producing some degree of lake- enhancement into
parts of the Chicago metro area, possibly with an additional
small footprint of 3-5" amounts there (perhaps locally 5-6").

 

[Chicago Storm]

7 minutes ago, OHweather said:

RRFS is cheeks

Although NAM is also cheeks in its own ways

Feels like a one step forward one step backward kind of tradeoff (although turning off most of the HREF members and going to the REFS is an additional step backwards IMO)

The whole thing is a shit show, quite honestly.

I get what they are doing and why they are doing it. However, your new model system (RRFS/REFS) really should be much better than your old model system (NAM/SREF), which hasn't had an upgrade in many years.

[Radtechwxman]

Gfs still not budging

[OHweather]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

The whole thing is a shit show, quite honestly.

I get what they are doing and why they are doing it. However, your new model system (RRFS/REFS) really should be much better than your old model system (NAM/SREF), which hasn't had an upgrade in many years.

Yeah that seems like a fair bare minimum. To their credit, they’ve realized that the FV3 core the GFS/RRFS currently run on won’t work, and the next version of the RRFS will be run on an MPAS core. Early indications are that will be much better. 
 

With that said, that they’ve decided to still move ahead with making the RRFS/REFS operational and turning off the NAM and several other models that go into the HREF while the RRFS still is running on the shitty model core that they’ve acknowledged they need to replace is certainly a choice.