Ralph Wiggum Posted yesterday at 03:15 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:15 PM Well, I remember opening the Jan 2016 storm thread 7 days prior, and we had good vibes. Feeling ok about this one as well. Put all storm related discussion here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted yesterday at 03:21 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:21 PM Thank You all for keeping people like me who just see colors on a map more informed. I enjoy your play by plays and trying (usually failing) to add something relevant. Thank Ya's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted yesterday at 03:30 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 03:30 PM 12z ICON at 96 looks improved with the Baja ull moving out a shade quicker and also with the angle and strength of the sw diving South out of Alberta. Relative to its 6z run. Should be a better run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted yesterday at 03:39 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 03:39 PM ICON was a relative 'quick' hitter, about 18 hrs in duration (1PM Sunday->7AM Monday). Had all the key features presented. Just a little sloppy with the phase and subtle timing differences/noise. Not a concern, still looks like a beatdown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 03:40 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:40 PM Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: ICON was a relative 'quick' hitter, about 18 hrs in duration (1PM Sunday->7AM Monday). Had all the key features presented. Just a little sloppy with the phase and subtle timing differences/noise. Not a concern, still looks like a beatdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted yesterday at 03:41 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 03:41 PM Just now, MJO812 said: Oh, hey there. Fuck. Bullseye 5 days out. Kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted yesterday at 03:48 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:48 PM Oh yeah the icon will do. Love the amped solution it’s just hoping it can stay there for 5 days lol . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted yesterday at 03:49 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:49 PM 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Oh, hey there. Fuck. Bullseye 5 days out. Kiss of death. That's why I liked yesterday's suppressed looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted yesterday at 03:49 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:49 PM That's why I liked yesterday's suppressed looks. Me too . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted yesterday at 03:51 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 03:51 PM 1 minute ago, coastal front said: Me too . Same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted yesterday at 03:59 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:59 PM 2005 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted yesterday at 04:00 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:00 PM sweating the bullets awaiting 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted yesterday at 04:02 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:02 PM Definitely looks south no? H is in PA at 108 vs. H in NY at 114 on 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted yesterday at 04:06 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:06 PM What a disaster 12z GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted yesterday at 04:07 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:07 PM Ai GFS missed everyone North of the PA/MD border. Hardly any precip makes it into PA on this model. Can't make this stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted yesterday at 04:08 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:08 PM ^^ It has my 29th system tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted yesterday at 04:10 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:10 PM The Baja ball is held back keeping it suppressed. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted yesterday at 04:12 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:12 PM AI gfs last 4 runs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted yesterday at 04:16 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:16 PM 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: AI gfs last 4 runs: The verification score drops rapidly under day 5 for the AI's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted yesterday at 04:16 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:16 PM 26 minutes ago, JTA66 said: That's why I liked yesterday's suppressed looks. There are still suppressed looks, so we do have some wiggle room i suppose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted yesterday at 04:20 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:20 PM Ha! Got my suppressed look with the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted yesterday at 04:24 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:24 PM CMC is a monster hit . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted yesterday at 04:24 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:24 PM 4 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Ha! Got my suppressed look with the GFS CMC also took a 150 mile jump South with the surface low off of SC. Still throws good moisture our way, better than GFS. But a notable increase in confluence and strength of HP to our North this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted yesterday at 04:25 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:25 PM 1 minute ago, coastal front said: CMC is a monster hit . It is, and maybe just noise, but there were big enough differences under the hood to make me raise an eyebrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted yesterday at 04:27 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:27 PM Yeah this is why you don’t start threads 5 days out imo. Major negative changes on the gfs and cmc. Suppression is definitely on the table. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted yesterday at 04:29 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:29 PM 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It is, and maybe just noise, but there were big enough differences under the hood to make me raise an eyebrow. I think the GFS is what it is because of how it’s handling the cold air. Therefore suppressed, how often do these super cold temps verify. Rarely, so I think the GFS will come north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted yesterday at 04:35 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:35 PM 6 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Yeah this is why you don’t start threads 5 days out imo. Major negative changes on the gfs and cmc. Suppression is definitely on the table. CMC wasn't horrible just had it strung out a little more. Didn't have the capture to make it the big storm. Still a long duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted yesterday at 04:36 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:36 PM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted yesterday at 04:37 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:37 PM CMC is a solid 8-16 region wide. Very similar to the icon. If anything the gfs at this point is on an island . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted yesterday at 04:37 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:37 PM 1 minute ago, ChescoWx said: i mean this would just be brutal, absolutely positively brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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