January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[Ralph Wiggum]

58 minutes ago, Newman said:

The 6z Euro backed off just a tad with how far the primary drives north which kept the mid-level warmth south of Philly for now and also keeps the dry slot a bit more muted as the low transfers to the coast

I mean, if we r being honest, the 6z euro was probably the best run yet for our region and about as close to perfect as we need for this one. 

[Violentweatherfan]

Anyone remember a SWFE with redevelopment off the coast? PPDII is as close as you are gonna get but there was no coastal redevelopment 

[Duca892]

42 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

The 0z models tonight are what I’m really interested in. I believe that will be the first run with full sampling.

Always scares me. I have PTSD from a storm about 6/7yrs ago that was looking to slam the Valley. Run after run. It got sampling and fresh data in an 0z suite and all of the sudden the models changed drastically and are 10in snow ended up being like 3in lol

[Newman]

22 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I mean, if we r being honest, the 6z euro was probably the best run yet for our region and about as close to perfect as we need for this one. 

100%. Let's just keep it here and snag an upper echelon MECS board wide.

[The Iceman]

Latest NBM...pretty incredible. Where do I sign?

 

[anthonyweather]

1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

Latest NBM...pretty incredible. Where do I sign?

 

 

 

Just got off the phone with a met at Mt holly. NBM isn't based off 10:1, but it's not kuchera either. It averages amounts out to account for average ratio based on temp profile.

 

[JTA66]

Anyone smarter than me care to extrapolate the 84hr NAM? Looks like it's ejecting the Baja low, but that might be me with weenie goggles on 

[ChescoWx]

2 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

 

 

Just got off the phone with a met at Mt holly. NBM isn't based off 10:1, but it's not kuchera either. It averages amounts out to account for average ratio based on temp profile.

 

Thanks Anthony! I did not know that!!

[zenmsav6810]

19 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

 

 

Just got off the phone with a met at Mt holly. NBM isn't based off 10:1, but it's not kuchera either. It averages amounts out to account for average ratio based on temp profile.

 

 

14 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Thanks Anthony! I did not know that!!

Nice! I also did not know that... now would that be the geometric average or the arithmetic average Lol 

[anthonyweather]

Anyone see the UK? Widespread 18-28"

[Lucy Pull]

18 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Anyone smarter than me care to extrapolate the 84hr NAM? Looks like it's ejecting the Baja low, but that might be me with weenie goggles on 

Definitely looks to be amped, potentially more than 6z euro depending on stream interaction.
 

Long range nam though but not far from euro structurally.