January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[Birds~69]

1 minute ago, zenmsav6810 said:

5. 1994 (I was yet born but my Mom was expecting me) 4. Snowpocalpse-Snowmageddon 3. January 2016 2. PDII 1. Jan 1996 is the alltimer list in my lifetime. My HECS of all time is March 1957.  

You witnessed? Or read about?

[zenmsav6810]

3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

You witnessed? Or read about?

Witnessed through family legend and photos (barn roof caved in!)

[anthonyweather]

Meaning not occasional gusts. I think the idea is the gusts have to be occurring often and not just here and there. 

You think there is some evidence to this? Looks like a window of about 4pm-10pm Sunday those 2 models are spinning up gusts close to 40 in the LV


.

[The Iceman]

[Birds~69]

6abc/accu weather not too long ago.

I'll sign and let's get this show on the road...

 

[MGorse]

4 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

 

You think there is some evidence to this? Looks like a window of about 4pm-10pm Sunday those 2 models are spinning up gusts close to 40 in the LV


.

 

It is not easy reaching blizzard criteria. In this case, the GFS, NAM and NAMnest soundings in the Lehigh Valley do show some wind however it is not ideal mixing. I am not sold on actual blizzard conditions occurring.

[zenmsav6810]

6 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Of interest on that list of top 50 storms - 11 of those 50 have occurred since 2000. So any climate changes at least here in Chesco are not lessening the frequency of big snowstorms!

I'm not sure if frequency of Nor' Easters are exactly a solid metric of climatology. There's so many confounding variables such as ENSO, oscillations factors, not to mention storm subtype classifications that would have to be controlled for to make sense of the data. The occurrence of a snowstorm in CHESCO is too rare and random an event to really make any sort of statistical analysis out of. The one study that once got my attention on a similar matter used a statistical method called bootstrapping (to show an eastward shift in Tornado Alley). This got around the meta-factors and stochastic principle. Its also worth noting that its a much larger area with many more data points than IMBY MECSes. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

18 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

 

I just kinda cringe when I hear it. Since I read that red tagers (okpowedah) post/ synopsis over at easteruswx

i think mgorse posted the last time I mentioned the terms are interchangeable a couple of years ago

 

AmWx WAS EasternWx until 2010 when they re-did the site. 

 

15 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Chains actually work pretty well. Never went through the hassle of studded/spiked tires...not sure if they are still legal in certain states? Probably mess up the road. 

I remember the years of the routine of "changing the snow tires" in spring and fall (on 2 different station wagons over the years in the '60s - late-'70s) and keeping a set of chains in the back of the station wagon.  Except for the '66 storm, none of that was really needed.  The snow drought literally "broke" the year my mom bought a brand new Mercury Zephyr after getting rid of the old station wagon and then a few months later, having some cop car doing a chase on the snowy street, and T-boneing it while it was parked in front of the house.  

Thank goodness for "all-weather tires" (at least around these parts - the snow zones in the northern U.S. still have those snow tires as I understand).

[JTA66]

The long, long, long range HRRR seems to be placing the low over Corolla NC. (Use for entertainment purposes only!)

[Violentweatherfan]

3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

 

AmWx WAS EasternWx until 2010 when they re-did the site. 

 

I remember the years of the routine of "changing the snow tires" in spring and fall (on 2 different station wagons over the years in the '60s - late-'70s) and keeping a set of chains in the back of the station wagon.  Except for the '66 storm, none of that was really needed.  The snow drought literally "broke" the year my mom bought a brand new Mercury Zephyr after getting rid of the old station wagon and then a few months later, having some cop car doing a chase on the snowy street, and T-boneing it while it was parked in front of the house.  

Thank goodness for "all-weather tires" (at least around these parts - the snow zones in the northern U.S. still have those snow tires as I understand).

I miss that place, Philadelphia and NYC were combined and there were great posters there too

[Birds~69]

4 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

 

AmWx WAS EasternWx until 2010 when they re-did the site. 

 

Did Marcus ever find Bigfoot? 

[Birds~69]

3 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

I miss that place, Philadelphia and NYC were combined and there were great posters there too

Actually I think every subforum was combined...or just about.

[FreezingDrizzle]

1 hour ago, anthonyweather said:

Really what's the difference? is that extra inch or two going to change his lifestyle?

 

Haha. I should have phrased the question differently.  

Is it more likely to get a front end of, say, 5 inches then go over to sleet and/or freezing rain or face a foot of snow? He is responsible for a church and school, thus the concern.

Fwiw, Mt. Holly who covers up to my area in central Jersey, and Upton, who covers Staten Island, 1/4 mile from me, have both knocked down the max inches considerably.

[RedSky]

7 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

I miss that place, Philadelphia and NYC were combined and there were great posters there too

Ah the medieval times of peasants, knights and jousting 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

59 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

I don’t think it’s possible for a surface low to “give or transfer energy”. Even the graphic that was posted mentions redevelopment. 

Agreed. When I think transfer i think upper level low transferring its energy. Redevelopment I picture a storm coming into the Tenn Valley and hitting a roadblock and being forced to redevelop farther downstream. I could be wrong tho.

[ChescoWx]

13 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

I'm not sure if frequency of Nor' Easters are exactly a solid metric of climatology. There's so many confounding variables such as ENSO, oscillations factors, not to mention storm subtype classifications that would have to be controlled for to make sense of the data. The occurrence of a snowstorm in CHESCO is too rare and random an event to really make any sort of statistical analysis out of. The one study that once got my attention on a similar matter used a statistical method called bootstrapping (to show an eastward shift in Tornado Alley). This got around the meta-factors and stochastic principle. Its also worth noting that its a much larger area with many more data points than IMBY MECSes. 

For sure! I don't really think our cyclical climate has any real impact especially on large snowstorms....they run like much of our climate in clusters of occurances over different decades.

[Hurricane Agnes]

12 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Did Marcus ever find Bigfoot? 

Randy might have found it during that Tug Hill blizzard fest. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

52 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Certainly not climo Steve!

Oh brother, I poked the bear with a climo comment 

[Ralph Wiggum]

40 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I just want 12.1" to say I received over a foot. I'm a simple guy...

I think for you and I relatively speaking, 10" is our ceiling before mix. Hope we can hit the one foot mark tho, would love that!

[zenmsav6810]

2 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

For sure! I don't really think our cyclical climate has any real impact especially on large snowstorms....they run like much of our climate in clusters of occurances over different decades.

Well, Im not sure if it is exactly proof of an unchanging-cyclical climate either. Im saying its jumbled up unusable data. Wet bulb temperature used as a proxy for precipitation type data might be an abundant enough and meta-factor ubiquitious data set to prove a statistical study to man made climate factors.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

30 minutes ago, MGorse said:

It is not easy reaching blizzard criteria. In this case, the GFS, NAM and NAMnest soundings in the Lehigh Valley do show some wind however it is not ideal mixing. I am not sold on actual blizzard conditions occurring.

Some mixed signals across guidance that suggest maybe spots can hit that criteria with the Feb 1-3 storm threat.

[Ralph Wiggum]

26 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Did Marcus ever find Bigfoot? 

What was the story with this? I used to talk to the guy pretty regularly back in 1998-2002 then he just vanished. Hope it wasnt health related but I hear snippets of things that suggest otherwise.

[zenmsav6810]

2 hours ago, Narberth Chedva said:

somebody get the "go home NAM you're drunk" images from storage in preparation

 

2 hours ago, JTA66 said:

Everyone take a deep breath. We still haven't been NAM'd yet. I'm sure it's coming. 

Just wait until they come out with NAM.ai lol...get your weenie googles out!

[Newman]

Yikes, 18z NAM is a disaster.

[ChescoWx]

Sleet already up to ABE by 3pm on Sunday....

[Duca892]

1 minute ago, ChescoWx said:

Sleet already up to ABE by 3pm on Sunday....

whoof..

[PhiEaglesfan712]

49 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

5. 1994 (I wasn't yet born but my Mom was expecting me) 4. Snowpocalpse-Snowmageddon 3. January 2016 2. PDII 1. Jan 1996 is the alltimer list in my lifetime. My HECS of all time is March 1957.  

The HECS was in March 1958. This followed another HECS on Valentine's Day that year. 1957-58 was that era's snowmageddon. In many places, it still holds the record for the snowiest season on record. That was a strong el nino year, like 2009-10, which produced the snowmageddon.

The crazy thing about 2009-10 is how quickly that winter wrapped up after the snowmageddon event. It legit felt like summer during the first week of April that year.

[mattinpa]

I wouldn’t trust it unless it gets support. The NAM can be prone to extreme runs both ways. 

[JTA66]

Taint up to I-80  

May need to revisit those Valentine's Day 2007 discussions

[Newman]

The NAM continues to be the most aggressive model with the warm nose punch. Not to mention it always has runs like this where it flip flops around. I'd give the NAM a few more runs until it gets within 48 hours to take it more seriously.