January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[rcostell]

22 hours ago, Albedoman said:

 at 17:1 ratios as a minimum  with greater than 25:1  as a max with this storm, 2 ft is achievable --AI euro has same issues.  Blowing and drifting will be a huge issue too

Still getting a chuckle out of this... maybe if we were at 10K feet in Little Cottonwood Canyon in Utah during an upslope storm...

[ChescoWx]

3 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

This is a really stupid question, so when i am looking at the 1st pic where for Allentown it says "-4" does that indicate that the upper levels are at 28 degrees (4 degrees less than freezing) and that Allentown is still snow? 

not a stupid question at all! minus 4 celcius- verbatim that would still be snow up at ABE - a little too close so I suspect sleet where it is minus 2 or higher

[The Iceman]

First call:

3-6” snow/sleet/ice shore points extreme snj

6-12” snow/sleet 95/195 corridor to SNJ

8-16” snow/sleet N and W of the fall line.

 

[SP]

been a long time coming.  Gravity Wave plz   nice to see this place still rocks!

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

12z ICON for informational purposes - 

[Voyager]

5 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

12z ICON for informational purposes - 

I'm guessing taint makes it to the Blue Mountain on that run? I'm at work so I can't really dig into the models on my phone.

[JTA66]

RGEM at range gets taint back to RT202-ish.

[CoolHandMike]

First probabilistic snow maps out. Only goes through Sunday 7am:

https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter

[Newman]

GFS is pretty much a hold from the last run, remains our coldest guidance

[Duca892]

GFS just absolutely demolishes people with 15-18in

[The Iceman]

6 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

GFS just absolutely demolishes people with 15-18in

I've seen this movie before... GFS being the coldest solution rarely works out, but this airmass is super cold... I still think we see a lot of sleet at least in the 95 corridor. Good thing is the NAM puts down 8-12" of snow before that.

[Duca892]

1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

I've seen this movie before... GFS being the coldest solution rarely works out, but this airmass is super cold... I still think we see a lot of sleet at least in the 95 corridor. Good thing is the NAM puts down 8-12" of snow before that.

It is very much my expectation at this point that going to a mix in the Lehigh Valley is a given (Probably even more North than that at this rate) and I really wouldn't be surprised if peopled topped out around 8in before the sleet mix. The huge totals of 12in+ would be amazing, but don't think its going to do it sadly 

[Birds~69]

6abc: (Seems alright. Remember this is for Philly, more mixing may occur. Burbs more.) 

[mattinpa]

I like the fact that models are slightly weaker with the primary. Could lead to close to the GFS eventually. It should be at least 6-12 inches area wide regardless.

[ChescoWx]

[Zeus]

So far the morning to midday runs have the coastal taking over a little sooner and staying a little further south, but also tuck it a bit closer to the coast. Would like to see that trend go a couple more rounds to nudge that icy stuff further SE.

[ChescoWx]

[JTA66]

12z Ukie looks like the 0z Euro (to my untrained eyes). Front end thump, then any taint would be on the lighter side after the damage is done.

[Mikeymac5306]

Still intrigued that the GFS is still holding while other models are pushing the sleet line north. 

 

See what the euro says. 

[The Iceman]

16 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

pretty impressive this is still so high.. Isn't the NBM a blend of the GFS, GFS ensembles, NAM nest, and Euro/euro ensembles? 

[JTA66]

3 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Still intrigued that the GFS is still holding while other models are pushing the sleet line north. 

 

See what the euro says. 

Unfortunately that's a red flag to me. Still, we're at 72hrs out. Patience!

[Violentweatherfan]

5 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Still intrigued that the GFS is still holding while other models are pushing the sleet line north. 

 

See what the euro says. 

It is on its own compared to the other models. As Ralph posted earlier, the redevelopment is further south and not hugging the coast 

[tcutter]

29 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

6abc: (Seems alright. Remember this is for Philly, more mixing may occur. Burbs more.) 

That is NOT a good freeze frame...lol

[Birds~69]

2 minutes ago, tcutter said:

That is NOT a good freeze frame...lol

  It seems like every freeze frame I do I could Photoshop it into something perverted. All by mistake of course...

[Violentweatherfan]

Borrowing this from the NYC Forum. Check the surface low location redevelopment is ideal. Not sure how it came to this conclusion but there it is 

8 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/22 12z GEFS

 

Total QPF mean - storm

 

 

Total Snow / sleet (10:1) :

 

 

LP Mean lean

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Duca892]

Was pretty shocked with the NWS briefing from MT. Holly this morning. They have allentown at 76% chance to hit and exceed 12in and a 38% chance to hit and exceed 18in. 

[Violentweatherfan]

7 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Was pretty shocked with the NWS briefing from MT. Holly this morning. They have allentown at 76% chance to hit and exceed 12in and a 38% chance to hit and exceed 18in. 

I think that was from previous information, it’ll be changed and updated 

[The Iceman]

10 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Was pretty shocked with the NWS briefing from MT. Holly this morning. They have allentown at 76% chance to hit and exceed 12in and a 38% chance to hit and exceed 18in. 

It had the low end for me(TTN area) at 10" and the high end at 23". 50% chance of 18" or more... I have to think both go down next briefing but who knows. That was extremely bullish though I agree.

[Duca892]

Specifically for the Lehigh Valley when all is said and done I bet a WSW is issued for 6-9in with sleet mixed in. Outside of GFS the mixing is becoming an issue. 

[LVblizzard]

1 minute ago, Duca892 said:

Specifically for the Lehigh Valley when all is said and done I bet a WSW is issued for 6-9in with sleet mixed in. Outside of GFS the mixing is becoming an issue. 

Nah…we’re probably seeing around a foot. Remember that the initial thump will be HEAVY. Even the warmest models give us 8 or 9 inches before any changeover.