January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[rcostell]

22 hours ago, Albedoman said:

 at 17:1 ratios as a minimum  with greater than 25:1  as a max with this storm, 2 ft is achievable --AI euro has same issues.  Blowing and drifting will be a huge issue too

Still getting a chuckle out of this... maybe if we were at 10K feet in Little Cottonwood Canyon in Utah during an upslope storm...

[ChescoWx]

3 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

This is a really stupid question, so when i am looking at the 1st pic where for Allentown it says "-4" does that indicate that the upper levels are at 28 degrees (4 degrees less than freezing) and that Allentown is still snow? 

not a stupid question at all! minus 4 celcius- verbatim that would still be snow up at ABE - a little too close so I suspect sleet where it is minus 2 or higher

[The Iceman]

First call:

3-6” snow/sleet/ice shore points extreme snj

6-12” snow/sleet 95/195 corridor to SNJ

8-16” snow/sleet N and W of the fall line.

 

[SP]

been a long time coming.  Gravity Wave plz   nice to see this place still rocks!

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

12z ICON for informational purposes - 

[Voyager]

5 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

12z ICON for informational purposes - 

I'm guessing taint makes it to the Blue Mountain on that run? I'm at work so I can't really dig into the models on my phone.

[JTA66]

RGEM at range gets taint back to RT202-ish.

[CoolHandMike]

First probabilistic snow maps out. Only goes through Sunday 7am:

https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter

[Newman]

GFS is pretty much a hold from the last run, remains our coldest guidance

[Duca892]

GFS just absolutely demolishes people with 15-18in

[The Iceman]

6 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

GFS just absolutely demolishes people with 15-18in

I've seen this movie before... GFS being the coldest solution rarely works out, but this airmass is super cold... I still think we see a lot of sleet at least in the 95 corridor. Good thing is the NAM puts down 8-12" of snow before that.

[Duca892]

1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

I've seen this movie before... GFS being the coldest solution rarely works out, but this airmass is super cold... I still think we see a lot of sleet at least in the 95 corridor. Good thing is the NAM puts down 8-12" of snow before that.

It is very much my expectation at this point that going to a mix in the Lehigh Valley is a given (Probably even more North than that at this rate) and I really wouldn't be surprised if peopled topped out around 8in before the sleet mix. The huge totals of 12in+ would be amazing, but don't think its going to do it sadly 

[Birds~69]

6abc: (Seems alright. Remember this is for Philly, more mixing may occur. Burbs more.) 

[mattinpa]

I like the fact that models are slightly weaker with the primary. Could lead to close to the GFS eventually. It should be at least 6-12 inches area wide regardless.

[ChescoWx]

[Zeus]

So far the morning to midday runs have the coastal taking over a little sooner and staying a little further south, but also tuck it a bit closer to the coast. Would like to see that trend go a couple more rounds to nudge that icy stuff further SE.

[ChescoWx]

[JTA66]

12z Ukie looks like the 0z Euro (to my untrained eyes). Front end thump, then any taint would be on the lighter side after the damage is done.

[Mikeymac5306]

Still intrigued that the GFS is still holding while other models are pushing the sleet line north. 

 

See what the euro says.