January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[Ralph Wiggum]

58 minutes ago, Newman said:

The 6z Euro backed off just a tad with how far the primary drives north which kept the mid-level warmth south of Philly for now and also keeps the dry slot a bit more muted as the low transfers to the coast

I mean, if we r being honest, the 6z euro was probably the best run yet for our region and about as close to perfect as we need for this one. 

[Violentweatherfan]

Anyone remember a SWFE with redevelopment off the coast? PPDII is as close as you are gonna get but there was no coastal redevelopment 

[Duca892]

42 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

The 0z models tonight are what I’m really interested in. I believe that will be the first run with full sampling.

Always scares me. I have PTSD from a storm about 6/7yrs ago that was looking to slam the Valley. Run after run. It got sampling and fresh data in an 0z suite and all of the sudden the models changed drastically and are 10in snow ended up being like 3in lol

[Newman]

22 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I mean, if we r being honest, the 6z euro was probably the best run yet for our region and about as close to perfect as we need for this one. 

100%. Let's just keep it here and snag an upper echelon MECS board wide.

[The Iceman]

Latest NBM...pretty incredible. Where do I sign?

 

[anthonyweather]

1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

Latest NBM...pretty incredible. Where do I sign?

 

 

 

Just got off the phone with a met at Mt holly. NBM isn't based off 10:1, but it's not kuchera either. It averages amounts out to account for average ratio based on temp profile.

 

[JTA66]

Anyone smarter than me care to extrapolate the 84hr NAM? Looks like it's ejecting the Baja low, but that might be me with weenie goggles on 

[ChescoWx]

2 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

 

 

Just got off the phone with a met at Mt holly. NBM isn't based off 10:1, but it's not kuchera either. It averages amounts out to account for average ratio based on temp profile.

 

Thanks Anthony! I did not know that!!

[zenmsav6810]

19 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

 

 

Just got off the phone with a met at Mt holly. NBM isn't based off 10:1, but it's not kuchera either. It averages amounts out to account for average ratio based on temp profile.

 

 

14 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Thanks Anthony! I did not know that!!

Nice! I also did not know that... now would that be the geometric average or the arithmetic average Lol 

[anthonyweather]

Anyone see the UK? Widespread 18-28"

[Lucy Pull]

18 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Anyone smarter than me care to extrapolate the 84hr NAM? Looks like it's ejecting the Baja low, but that might be me with weenie goggles on 

Definitely looks to be amped, potentially more than 6z euro depending on stream interaction.
 

Long range nam though but not far from euro structurally. 

[Duca892]

FWIW ICON was a smokeshow per maps from our MA Friends. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

12 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

FWIW ICON was a smokeshow per maps from our MA Friends. 

I'm hoping for a miss (I'm going up to Vermont on Sunday), so this would be great news for me. 

[anthonyweather]

13 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

FWIW ICON was a smokeshow per maps from our MA Friends. 

I-95s might have to start worrying. Lot of rain on ICON

 

[The Iceman]

lol it's not going to rain to 95. Literally 0 chance. ICON is a trash model

[The Iceman]

6 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'm hoping for a miss (I'm going up to Vermont on Sunday), so this would be great news for me. 

Bro you've posted it multiple times now, we get it, you're hoping for a miss so that your plans aren't ruined. This is a snow board though so keep it to yourself honestly. We don't want those bad vibes.

[Zeus]

4 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

I-95s might have to start worrying. Lot of rain on ICON

 

Probably sleet/freezing rain rather than plain rain for many on that particular run; look at the temps. May have a warm nose aloft there but the 2ms stay pretty frigid outside of the immediate coast on that run, and the ICON doesn't seem to differentiate ptypes other than snow vs. rain for purposes of its accumulation output.

If dominance transfers to the coastal a bit earlier and locks in colder air, a moot point, but the overnight and early midday runs suggest a big thump then a flip to some kitchen sink stuff around our area, maybe then some back end fluff.

Need to see that trend halt or adjust in a different direction for those favoring an all snow event, but 6+ inches for most in the area seems likely regardless at this stage.

[The Iceman]

GFS and AIGFS is a total shallacking. Zero precip issues save for maybe extreme S NJ.

 

[Albedoman]

54 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

 

Nice! I also did not know that... now would that be the geometric average or the arithmetic average Lol 

 at 17:1 ratios as a minimum  with greater than 25:1  as a max with this storm, 2 ft is achievable --AI euro has same issues.  Blowing and drifting will be a huge issue too

[Mikeymac5306]

2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

GFS and AIGFS is a total shallacking. Zero precip issues save for maybe extreme S NJ.

Yeah basically a hold of what 6Z had. 

 

[ChescoWx]

[Newman]

GFS is a great run, longer duration too as you leave a bit of energy trailing. You get the southern energy to ride up along the baroclinic zone with PVA pointed across the region, and then the central Plains trough swings through. 24-30 hour event for many. A widespread 12-20" from DC to Boston hasn't happened in quite some time.

[Zeus]

4 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Yeah basically a hold of what 6Z had. 

 

It hangs back some of the southwestern energy juuuust enough to sort of elongate things though -- dragging snow through basically most of Monday. It's on its own in that regard for the current-most run of the overall suite, but if that starts showing similarly elsewhere then a bit colder, longer solution would seem more likely.

Given its performance thus far, I wouldn't necessarily hold my breath on that front; seems to be lagging behind the pack.

[Birds~69]

12 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Bro you've posted it multiple times now, we get it, you're hoping for a miss so that your plans aren't ruined. This is a snow board though so keep it to yourself honestly. We don't want those bad vibes.

Lol...I remember 1 other time but there may be more.  

[Duca892]

if the GFS happened as modeled this would go down as an all timer

[PhiEaglesfan712]

12 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Bro you've posted it multiple times now, we get it, you're hoping for a miss so that your plans aren't ruined. This is a snow board though so keep it to yourself honestly. We don't want those bad vibes.

I am fine with a 6-8 inch snowstorm. I've done that plenty of times, and we got that as recently as 2021 and 2022. I just don't want a 18-24 inch snowstorm. It's been 10 years since that happened, and quite frankly, I don't know if I have the infrastructure to deal with a storm that big.

[The Iceman]

Just now, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I am fine with a 6-8 inch snowstorm. I've done that plenty of times, and we got that as recently as 2021 and 2022. I just don't want a 18-24 inch snowstorm. It's been 10 years since that happened, and quite frankly, I don't know if I have the infrastructure to deal with a storm that big.

I'll come down and shovel you out myself if we get 18-24" 

[Zeus]

Canadian keeps chugging along advancing the trend of the warmth getting pretty far up.

[The Iceman]

CMC drives the primary up to Erie, that's why. Scranton will flip to IP if that's the case. With the level of cold and the banana high in place, I would be surprised but it isn't unprecedented. The CMC solution honestly reminds me of a less juiced VD 2007.

[Mikeymac5306]

11 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

CMC drives the primary up to Erie, that's why. Scranton will flip to IP if that's the case. With the level of cold and the banana high in place, I would be surprised but it isn't unprecedented. The CMC solution honestly reminds me of a less juiced VD 2007.

Puts the ice line at the Turnpike.