Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[WeatherGeek2025]

the snow cover will last with that sleet on top

[MJO812]

Gfs is wonderful. Big thump then sleet and then back to snow.

[psv88]

RGEM and GFS both showing a foot for the metro. Let’s go!

[Franklin0529]

Gfs won't back down. It's been like 10 runs in a row that haven't wavered much 

[wthrmn654]

Good God is getting windy out. 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah, dude - I’m excited for it. Should be fun!  
 

In reality this just morphed into a super amped system that’s largely saved by the arctic dome above us, otherwise we’d all mostly be raining Sunday.

It’s a cool storm, been fun to track. 

And I’ll take 8 and some sleet and call it a day. Not gonna complain about that after the past few winters. 

Agreed. I doubt it’s a very memorable storm for us given all of the blizzards in the past 20 years. But it will make for a fun Sunday 

[MJO812]

Down to 15 here

[Tatamy]

Big time surge of Arctic air this evening.  Temperature has dropped 25 degrees since mid-afternoon.  Down to 10 with a DP of-10

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

RGEM and GFS both showing a foot for the metro. Let’s go!

Relieved that it's pretty much just the NAM that torched like crazy. Both have plenty of QPF too. 

[SACRUS]

 

1/24 00z GFS total QPF storm

 

 

Total Snow (10:1)

[Joe4alb]

Down to 19 here. Was 25 about an HR ago.

[lee59]

16 at Central Park now, down 3 in past hour. Might hit single digits tonight.

[Snowlover11]

Wow lol reggie halts the mix at the TZ.

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Relieved that it's pretty much just the NAM that torched like crazy. Both have plenty of QPF too. 

Absolutely beautiful RGEM run. We get smoked. 

[SACRUS]

 

1/24 00z GFS Au AIGFS  Total QPF

 

TOtal Now:

 

 

[Winterweatherlover]

RGEM looks good, GFS seems to hold. I'd lean toss NAM for now, give it more weight if it holds its solution tomorrow. 

[JonClaw]

8 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Gfs won't back down. It's been like 10 runs in a row that haven't wavered much 

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

11 minutes ago, samdman95 said:

one random thought: while we are used to Manhattan/Central Park getting lower totals due to the urban heat island effect, I’d assume that’s going to be less of the case here as surface temps aren’t an issue and it’s only upper levels where warm temps are coming in

Central Park doesn't  get lower totals because of UHI effect. They just don't measure timely, properly, or with a trained professional that actual  cares about proper protocol. It's that simple. 

[Wxbear25]

1 minute ago, JonClaw said:

 

the biggest issue with the GFS when it comes to these things is unfortuantely the thing thats going to be problematic... handling mid-level thermals is not its strong suit

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, JonClaw said:

 

Yep it finally got off the idea that the jackpot will be from here to Philly. In this type of storm that ain't happening. We hope for the hellacious 6 hours or so that can hold the sleet back as long as possible. But the sleet will eventually come, that was clear 48-60hrs ago (for the city). 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Being in the nw bronx,prime seats for the thump. 10+ is a 80% lock atm. Ill gladly take the over again..

[Nibor]

5 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I've gotten pretty mellow over the years with these storms, but I gotta say that I now officially loathe the term "warm nose."  On top off the snow-ruining implications, it just sounds gross.  If I never heard the term again it wouldn't be soon enough.

Which body appendage would you like the term to be changed to? Choose wisely!

[Winterweatherlover]

The reality is the numbers don't change much run to run on the models for NYC, pretty consistent 8-10 inches for NYC. GFS has been the high outlier usually showing around 15 inches and NAM the low outlier with around 4-7.

[MANDA]

Currently 5 degrees and pretty windy.  Just stepped out for a minute and it is freaking cold.

[Snowman92]

If anybody has some insight:

1. Will we be fighting virga with this storm ? Or will one strong band fix that immediately

2. Would this be impressive if the GFS actually verifies and we get exactly as it has shown ? This is quite a few runs now that are the same and have not budged at all 

[jm1220]

RAP 3z is an absolute crusher at this range, but it's still beyond where we can really use it. Tomorrow it'll probably come into line with the other guidance.

[SACRUS]

 

00Z UKMT running

 

 

[psv88]

15/-4

[SACRUS]

 

00z GEFS

Total QPF

 

Total snow mean (10:1)

[NorthShoreWx]

58 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

This is it exactly... 2" per hour at 15:1 adds up real quick... 

Do I need to post the pound of feathers vs pound of rocks analogy again?