Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[David-LI]

6 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

Someone please post the old "Mother Of God" picture please... Pretty please? From the old days... Lol

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Back up with the 1.25 line

 

[Wxbear25]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

 

I'd rather have GFS by my side than Euro since their upgrade a few years back!

Dubious, at best, but you do you.

Regardless, if anything I feel better having at least one model showing what the GFS is. Would love to see some more models head that way, some of which have been gradually moving towards a colder solution but still need work

Still plenty of time, here’s to a GFS coup

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

True, marine forecasts are tricky. I rely on the PredictWind app and largely follow HRRR for same day marine winds. I dont think Upton spends alot of time and energy fine tuning the wind forecast for the western LI Sound.

people think the sound is sheltered waters; its about as sheltered as the great lakes....

[psv88]

Point and click has me at 17 inches in suffolk, i think that's way too high...my best guess for here is 9-10" of snow/ice. Upton is being very aggressive. They must be banking on the early transfer and wrap around.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Talking about waters that are cold,even with a southerly wind, temps dont rise as fast due to cooler waters. It would have been in the mid 50's today if this was late nov early dec. Just saying. 

[David-LI]

GFS with another threat for the following weekend

[mob1]

1 minute ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Talking about waters that are cold,even with a southerly wind, temps dont rise as fast due to cooler waters. It would have been in the mid 50's today if this was late nov early dec. Just saying. 

Surface temps aren't the issue though, it's the warm nose in the mid levels that are screwing us. No amount of cold waters will offset that. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

 

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Surface temps aren't the issue though, it's the warm nose in the mid levels that are screwing us. No amount of cold waters will offset that. 

we arent getting screwed...major storm coming for all. 

[Wxbear25]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

we arent getting screwed...major storm coming for all. 

Agreed. We may not jackpot, but I’m extremely confident in 6” at minimum. Upside of this is like 15-20, but if had to pick a general range for the Island right now I’d go 8-12

[Monty]

GFS has a blizzard as a second act late next week. Yes please. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Monty said:

GFS has a blizzard as a second act late next week. Yes please. 

Weeklies are insanely wintry and cold through February.

[East of the Parkway]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies are insanely wintry and cold through February.

February in the early 90s were cold and icy. Days with no power or school. 

[Brian5671]

22 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It transfers it earlier/further south which keeps the mid level warm air away. And puts us in a pivot zone where we don’t dry slot and the coastal snow takes over. That’s another consequence of a primary driving into Buffalo-the 700mb layer dries out and we get the dry slot. GFS has been consistent I’ll give it that. 

Need to see the other models move towards it before I bite

[WeatherGeek2025]

Euro looks like it's trending to the GFS

[mob1]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

we arent getting screwed...major storm coming for all. 

Relatively speaking (to what I was responding to). For me personally, 6 inches would be a success and anything more gravy. 

Less than 6 would hurt a bit 

 

[EasternLI]

Next week is a legitimate real threat too. Pattern supports it as does the MJO for once. Don't wear yourselves out on this one 

[Winterweatherlover]

15 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Talking about waters that are cold,even with a southerly wind, temps dont rise as fast due to cooler waters. It would have been in the mid 50's today if this was late nov early dec. Just saying. 

If it was early December theres no way LI and probably even NYC wouldn't flip to rain in this setup so timing here is beneficial.

[Brian5671]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

If it was early December theres no way LI and probably even NYC wouldn't flip to rain in this setup so timing here is beneficial.

helps that the waters off NJ are a bit cooler than normal...every little bit helps right?!?!

[wthrmn654]

20 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Point and click has me at 17 inches in suffolk, i think that's way too high...my best guess for here is 9-10" of snow/ice. Upton is being very aggressive. They must be banking on the early transfer and wrap around.

There going with 15:1 snow ratios and high snowfall rates mostly. 

[wthrmn654]

7 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Relatively speaking (to what I was responding to). For me personally, 6 inches would be a success and anything more gravy. 

Less than 6 would hurt a bit 

 

I thought more then 6 would hurt 

[Winterweatherlover]

38 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Tue night ice box

 

Actually not that frigid near the coast, fine with me.

[eduggs]

31 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

I have a home in VT and spend a good part of the year there and travel through New England. Aside from the northern greens, lake belts and parts of the Adirondacks it hasn’t been a great season. Maybe average, below in some areas. Not great in Mass, NH or ME. Even the central greens, Killington etc not great. Cold yes, storm systems and above average snow, not so much.

That's why I specifically mentioned the northern Dacks and northern VT. My point was that when that area scores, we usually don't and vice versa. It's possible for Mt. Snow and NYC to share a good snowstorm but much less likely with Stowe and NYC.

[Winterweatherlover]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

helps that the waters off NJ are a bit cooler than normal...every little bit helps right?!?!

sure every bit helps, a lot of factors aligning right, some snow cover on the ground still, precip starting overnight/very early morning when it's coldest. 

[jm1220]

I’m glad that the “low end” RGEM still gets us with 6-8” at 10-1 with the overrunning surge and we have the high end GFS/UKMET with 12”+. 

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

That's why I specifically mentioned the northern Dacks and northern VT. My point was that when that area scores, we usually don't and vice versa. It's possible for Mt. Snow and NYC to share a good snowstorm but much less likely with Stowe and NYC.

True but this also isn't a typical storm like we've seen with tight gradients, this is a very widespread snow event, lots of cold, lots of moisture to spread the wealth so to speak.

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/22 18Z

Total QPF / Snow/Sleet (10:1)

NAM (84H): 1.2 / 9.7
RGEM: 1.1 / 7.0
GFS: 1.4 /  13.5

Updated 

 

[Prue11]

10 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

There going with 15:1 snow ratios and high snowfall rates mostly. 

15:1 may happen for a short time but I think 12:1 or 10:1 is more realistic 

[eduggs]

I feel like the GFS is just torturing us. It's hard to unsee widespread 20" clown maps, which would make 7" of snow/sleet to dryslot while BGM and ALB snows for 30 hrs more annoying. Storm after storm this year the GFS has been an outlier until under 48 hours. If only we had any confidence in the model... but maybe it will do better this time around with more southern stream involvement.